CEG · Constellation Energy Corporation · Stock research

Notes

• 2026-04-19: Constellation — nuclear uprate + Amazon deal narrative
• 2026-06-04: Catalyst (Q1 print) PASSED on 2026-05-11 — beat + reaffirmed $11-$12/sh 2026 guide but stock dipped ~3% (sell-the-news). Narrative leg is digesting, not accelerating.
• 2026-06-01: 11M-share secondary priced at $281 (+2M repurchase from underwriters) — pins spot ~$281 and creates supply overhang; treat as near-term cap.
• 2026-06-02: FERC granted an expedited-integration waiver for the TMI/Crane Clean Energy Center restart (targets 2027 vs prior 2031); stock +2.6%. This is the existing Microsoft PPA advancing, not a new demand leg.
• 2026-06-02: 11M-share secondary closed at $281; company repurchased 2M shares for ~$558M, ~$3.5B repurchase authority remaining. Overhang largely cleared but at a level holders sold into.
• 2026-06-23: NEW Walmart long-term nuclear PPA from Dresden Clean Energy Center (IL) — a corporate offtake, not a hyperscaler multi-GW deal; stock reaction muted.
• 2026-06-26: NRC license-renewal filings to extend Ginna + Nine Mile Point Unit 1 to 2049 — multi-year review, not a near-term catalyst.
• 2026-07-19: PRIOR INVALIDATION FIRED. The $281 weekly-close level from the last dossier broke; stock traded to a 52-wk low of $228.63 on 2026-07-01 and closed $252.39 on 2026-07-17. Theme leg downgraded to SATURATED/rolling.
• 2026-07-14: Hochul executive order = first US statewide moratorium on data centers requiring 50MW+, up to 1 year pending a Generic Environmental Impact Statement; DEC blocked from issuing discretionary permits not already deemed complete. Hospitals/universities/back-office exempt. Directly freezes co-location optionality at Ginna, Nine Mile Point, FitzPatrick (all upstate NY).
• 2026-07-01: Citi cut PT to $297 from $348 (~15%) after a PJM reliability-risk meeting, Neutral maintained. Goldman $305 (06-18) and Bernstein $296 (06-17) are pre-breakdown numbers and stale vs ~$252 spot.
• Constellation Energy (CEG) is a separate company from Constellation Brands (STZ); insider, 13F and generic "Constellation" headlines are routinely misattributed between the two.
• No signed Amazon–Constellation power agreement exists. Amazon's contracted nuclear supplier is Talen Energy: 1,920 MW from Susquehanna through 2042.
• The §45U nuclear production credit runs through 2032, is commonly cited as a revenue floor near $43.75/MWh, and counts capacity receipts in its gross-receipts test.
• The remaining 25M of the 50M-share Calpine merger consideration unlock 2027-06-30; the first tranche came free 2026-06-30. Shares outstanding are +3.19% YoY.
• 2026 carries an above-typical planned refuelling-outage cadence, which shifts nuclear output and margin between quarters.
• The 380 MW CyrusOne agreement announced 2026-02-09 is served from the gas-fired Freestone Energy Center via the Calpine unit, not from the nuclear fleet.