IAG · IAMGold
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $17.00
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Results, 5 November 2026: Third-quarter 2026 results showed operating cash flow of $461.1 million, net cash of $317.6 million, maintained 720,000–820,000 ounce production guidance and a $525 million Côté royalty repurchase, though consolidated AISC is now expected above the top of guidance.
Price against the kill line
1.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $17.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 9.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $17.00, under the 14 October 2026 and 27 October 2026 closes near $17.05 and $17.08, which would take the shares below their October lows. Full-year 2026 attributable production below the 720,000-ounce guidance floor would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What IAMGold reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 3.1 days of average trading to cover, −0.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.0M |
The thesis
IAMGOLD is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter cash flow and net cash balance are large, but a hot US inflation report has pushed gold lower and the shares have given back their post-report rally. The Federal Reserve decision on 9 December 2026 and the December closing of the Côté royalty repurchase settle the call.
The shares closed at $17.14 on 12 November 2026, down from $19.84 on 9 November 2026 (adjusted daily closes). The 10 November 2026 session carried the first leg of the fall: US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% Reuters forecast, and spot gold fell 2.8% to $4,021.36 an ounce (CNBC, 10 November 2026). CME's FedWatch tool showed a 25 basis point December rate hike as fully priced, with a 10.5% chance of 50 basis points (CNBC, 10 November 2026). IAMGOLD closed at $18.52 that day, then at $18.07 on 11 November 2026 and $17.14 on 12 November 2026.
The company's own numbers have not changed since the 5 November 2026 report. Third-quarter all-in sustaining costs (AISC, the full per-ounce cost measure) were $2,184 per ounce including royalties, and management expects the full-year figure above the top of the $2,000–$2,150 range. Côté is expected at the low end of its 390,000–440,000 ounce range.
The close of $17.14 on 12 November 2026 sits below the $17.50 close of 5 November 2026, the session before the report-day rally to $18.76. The market has priced out the whole post-report gain.
Bullish and bearish views on IAMGold Corporation
The bull case on IAMGold Corporation (IAG), in brief: cash generation is large. The bear case: costs will exceed guidance.
Bull case
- Cash generation is large. Third-quarter operating cash flow was $461.1 million and mine-site free cash flow was $404.3 million. Year to date, mine-site free cash flow is $1,297.8 million (third-quarter 2026 results release, 5 November 2026).
- The balance sheet is in net cash. Net cash excluding leases was $317.6 million at 30 September 2026, with $1,613.4 million of liquidity and an undrawn credit facility (results release, 5 November 2026).
- The company is repurchasing shares. It bought 7.6 million shares for $134.7 million in the third quarter at an average $17.58, and 32.1 million shares since December 2025. It seeks approval for a new buyback of up to about 10% of shares, and a dividend is under consideration for 2027 (results release, 5 November 2026).
- A royalty cut targets Côté costs. On 5 November 2026 IAMGOLD gave notice to repurchase half of Franco-Nevada's 7.5% Côté royalty for about $525 million. Management links it to roughly $150 per ounce lower Côté cash costs from 2027, with closing expected in December 2026.
- Côté throughput improved. September throughput averaged 37,100 tonnes per day against a 40,000 target, and milling cost was about $15.36 per tonne (Earnings Whispers review, 6 November 2026).
- Production guidance holds. Attributable output was 186,900 ounces in the third quarter and 558,600 year to date, with management on track for 720,000–820,000 ounces for 2026 (results release, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- Costs will exceed guidance. Management expects AISC including royalties above $2,150 per ounce for 2026, and Côté cash costs excluding royalties above the top of the $900–$1,050 per ounce range (results release, 5 November 2026).
- Gold has fallen below the realized price. Spot gold was $4,021.36 on 10 November 2026 (CNBC), under the third-quarter realized price of $4,277 per ounce, which was itself below $4,384 in the second quarter (company releases).
- Rate-hike pricing is a fresh headwind. A December hike is fully priced after the 10 November 2026 inflation report (CNBC, citing CME FedWatch). Gold-miner selling on rate fears also occurred in September and October (Benzinga and Reuters-sourced reports).
- Côté slipped. An extended August shutdown and grinding-mill downtime lowered recovery to 90%. Management had called the mine on track in the second quarter (Mining.com and Earnings Whispers reports).
- Essakane carries jurisdiction risk. Burkina Faso's average royalty rate reached 11% in the third quarter. From 1 November 2026 the country requires doré (unrefined gold bars) to go to approved in-country refineries, and IAMGOLD has a temporary exemption. Essakane sustaining capital was raised to $195 million from $165 million.
- The royalty deal uses cash. About $525 million funds the repurchase, since Sumitomo Metal Mining declined to participate. IAMGOLD has received $223.6 million of the roughly $400 million Essakane dividend, with about $176.4 million still expected.
Price setup
The shares closed at $17.14 on 12 November 2026. That is 31.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $24.87 on 2 March 2026 and well above the 52-week closing low of $12.78 on 20 November 2025. The 3-month change is –6.3%, measured from the $18.30 close of 14 August 2026.
The close sits below both the 50-day average of $18.49 and the 200-day average of $18.25 (adjusted daily closes, as of 12 November 2026). On 9 November 2026 the shares had closed at $19.84, above both. The October closes of $17.05 on 14 October 2026 and $17.08 on 27 October 2026 are the nearest prior lows, and the latest close is within a few cents of the range they mark.
The company is the main identified buyer. Its third-quarter average repurchase price of $17.58 sits above the latest close, and the current program expires on 11 December 2026 pending approval of a new one by the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve rate decision (est.). A December hike is already priced; a larger or more hawkish outcome would push gold further below IAMGOLD's third-quarter realized price of $4,277 per ounce.
- 11 December 2026: Current share buyback program expires; new program awaits Toronto Stock Exchange approval. Company buying has been the main identified demand for the shares; renewal shows whether it continues.
- December 2026 (est.): Closing of the Franco-Nevada Côté royalty repurchase (about $525 million). Management ties the deal to about $150 per ounce lower Côté cash costs from 2027.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Updated Côté-Gosselin mine plan. Sets the throughput and cost path that the Côté recovery case rests on.
What would change the view
A daily close below $17.00, under the 14 October 2026 and 27 October 2026 closes near $17.05 and $17.08, which would take the shares below their October lows. Full-year 2026 attributable production below the 720,000-ounce guidance floor would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Côté costs stay above guidance into 2027, so the royalty purchase does not restore margins. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter AISC including royalties at or above the third-quarter $2,184 per ounce, or Côté cash costs staying above $1,050 per ounce.
- Rate-hike expectations keep gold below the third-quarter realized price of $4,277 per ounce, squeezing margins already above cost guidance. Confirmed by: a hawkish Federal Reserve outcome on 9 December 2026 with spot gold below its 10 November 2026 level of $4,021.36 per ounce.
- Burkina Faso restricts Essakane cash or ends IAMGOLD's refining exemption. Confirmed by: delay in the remaining ~$176.4 million Essakane dividend, or loss of the temporary exemption from the in-country refining rule.
- The royalty repurchase does not close or draws down the cash cushion faster than expected. Confirmed by: a December 2026 announcement of delay, or net cash falling sharply in the fourth-quarter report.
- Share buying weakens if the new buyback is not approved when the current program expires. Confirmed by: no Toronto Stock Exchange approval announced by 11 December 2026.
What it trades with
IAMGOLD trades with gold and with interest-rate expectations. Gold fell 2.8% on 10 November 2026 on the October inflation report (CNBC), and the shares fell with it over the following sessions. Earlier, gold miners dropped 1.9% on a hot jobs report (Benzinga, 4 September 2026) and gold fell 2% on a hot producer price report (Benzinga, 10 September 2026). Other gold miners with African operations carry similar jurisdiction exposure.
The ticker IAG also appears on International Consolidated Airlines Group and iA Financial Group news. Items such as Deutsche Bank's 12 November 2026 target cut on the airline group and iA Financial's 10 November 2026 dividend increase do not concern IAMGOLD.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 AISC was $2,184 per ounce including royalties ($1,836 excluding); management expects full-year AISC including royalties above the top of the $2,000–$2,150 range. IAMGOLD third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter operating cash flow was $461.1 million and mine-site free cash flow $404.3 million; net cash excluding leases was $317.6 million. IAMGOLD third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter attributable production was 186,900 ounces (558,600 year to date); 2026 guidance of 720,000–820,000 ounces maintained. IAMGOLD third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Notice given to repurchase half of Franco-Nevada's 7.5% Côté gross margin royalty for about $525 million; closing expected December 2026. IAMGOLD third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Realized gold price was $4,277 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026. IAMGOLD third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter buyback: 7.6 million shares for $134.7 million at an average $17.58; 32.1 million shares repurchased since December 2025. IAMGOLD third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% Reuters forecast; spot gold fell 2.8% to $4,021.36 an ounce; a 25 basis point December Fed hike was fully priced per CME FedWatch. CNBC, 10 November 2026 · as of
- September Côté throughput averaged 37,100 tonnes per day; Côté expected at the low end of 390,000–440,000 ounces. Earnings Whispers third-quarter 2026 review · as of
Sources
- IAMGOLD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · finviz.com ·
- Gold falls more than 2% as CPI tops forecasts, lifting dollar and yields · cnbc.com ·
- Finviz ·