HURN · Huron Consulting Group
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $155.31
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating raised from Low to Medium. Results, 3 November 2026: Huron's third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.62 beat the $2.47 estimate, 2026 adjusted EPS guidance rose to $9.20–$9.40, and the buyback authorization was raised to $1.1 billion, though organic growth slowed to 6.7%.
Price against the kill line
9.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $155.31, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are up 14.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $155.31, the 13 August 2026 close, which would erase the shares' three-month gain; or 2026 revenue before reimbursable expenses guidance cut below the $1.855 billion low end.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 492
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +11.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 34.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 12.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 125
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −788
- Price to earnings (×)
- 23.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.9
All filed numbers
What Huron Consulting Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 492 | +11.4 | 34.1 | 12.0 |
| first filed | 475 | +15.4 | 34.5 | 10.6 |
| first filed | 452 | +11.8 | 31.8 | 8.1 |
| first filed | 442 | +10.7 | 35.2 | 11.4 |
| first filed | 441 | +16.7 | 34.6 | 11.3 |
| first filed | 412 | +8.1 | 34.7 | 11.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 42.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 114 | 28.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −8.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 142 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 17.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 125 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 25.6 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 814 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −788 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +24.0% on a year | 38.3 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +3.7% on a year | 328 |
| Receivables ($M) | 219 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 392 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,677 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,465 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 17.7 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 23.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.0 days of average trading to cover, +6.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $14K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $7.5M |
The thesis
Huron Consulting's earnings are growing faster than its revenue, and the company is retiring about a tenth of its shares, which makes the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected around late February 2027, settles whether organic growth of 6.7% in the third quarter was a pause or a new, slower pace.
Huron reported third-quarter 2026 revenue before reimbursable expenses (RBR) of $482.5 million, up 11.6% from $432.4 million, with acquisitions adding $21.1 million (company 8-K, 3 November 2026). Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.62 against a $2.47 estimate (Benzinga, 3 November 2026). The company raised the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.30 and left the RBR midpoint unchanged.
The shares closed at $168.16 on 11 November 2026. That is 17.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $203.37 set on 23 October 2026 and level with the 50-day average. The market has already absorbed the slowdown in organic growth, while Wedbush and Barrington Research set targets of $220 and $217 after the report.
Bullish and bearish views on Huron Consulting Group Inc.
The bull case on Huron Consulting Group Inc. (HURN), in brief: earnings beat and guidance moved up. The bear case: organic growth slowed sharply.
Bull case
- Earnings beat and guidance moved up. Third-quarter adjusted EPS rose 24.8% to $2.62 from $2.10, and sales of $491.451 million beat a $481.386 million estimate (Benzinga, 3 November 2026). Full-year adjusted EPS guidance went to $9.20–$9.40 from $9.00–$9.40.
- Healthcare is growing fast. Healthcare RBR was $255.8 million in the third quarter, up 16.5% from a year earlier, the largest segment and the fastest (Huron 8-K, 3 November 2026). Management cited double-digit growth in Consulting, Managed Services and Digital.
- Margins widened. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $77.3 million, or 16.0% of RBR, against 15.6% a year earlier (Huron 8-K, 3 November 2026).
- Buybacks are shrinking the share count. Huron repurchased 1.7 million shares for $234.9 million in the first nine months of 2026, about 10.0% of shares outstanding at 2025 year-end. On 29 October 2026 the board raised the repurchase authorization to $1.1 billion from $900 million and extended it to 31 December 2028.
- Analysts raised targets after the report. Wedbush kept an Outperform rating with a $220 target on 4 November 2026, and Barrington Research set a $217 target on 9 November 2026 (Benzinga). Both sit above the last close.
Bear case
- Organic growth slowed sharply. Organic RBR growth was 6.7% in the third quarter against 10.8% in the second, and 8.2% for the first nine months (Huron 8-K, 3 November 2026 and 28 July 2026). Acquisitions supplied $21.1 million of the $50.2 million year-over-year RBR increase.
- Two of three segments grew about 6.5%. Education RBR rose 6.6% and Commercial rose 6.4% (Huron 8-K, 3 November 2026). Healthcare carried the quarter.
- The revenue guide did not rise. Huron narrowed 2026 RBR guidance to $1.855–$1.885 billion from $1.850–$1.890 billion, with an unchanged midpoint (Huron 8-K, 3 November 2026). Benzinga listed a $1.872 billion analyst estimate.
- The shares sold off after the report. They closed at $175.73 on 5 November 2026, $166.82 on 6 November 2026 and $161.57 on 9 November 2026, then recovered to $168.16 on 11 November 2026.
- Reported earnings trail adjusted earnings. Third-quarter GAAP diluted EPS was $1.75 against $2.62 adjusted. A $5.9 million non-cash credit loss on a convertible debt investment in a third party reduced GAAP EPS by $0.36 (Huron 8-K, 3 November 2026).
Price setup
The last close of $168.16 on 11 November 2026 sits just under the 50-day average of $168.61 and well above the 200-day average of $138.23 (adjusted daily closes). The three-month change is 8.3%. The 52-week closing low was $90.16 on 30 June 2026.
The post-report closes ran $173.01 on 4 November 2026, $175.73 on 5 November 2026, $166.82 on 6 November 2026, $161.57 on 9 November 2026, $166.47 on 10 November 2026 and $168.16 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high of $203.37 on 23 October 2026 came before the S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion took effect on 3 November 2026. The index buying that preceded the report has finished.
SEC Form 4 filings show two small sales by director Debra Zumwalt, 82 shares at $156.56 on 14 August 2026 and 82 shares at $167.75 on 2 October 2026, both under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance (Huron reported the prior year's fourth quarter on 24 February 2026). It shows whether organic RBR growth recovers from 6.7% in the third quarter and whether Huron's first 2027 guidance supports the shares.
What would change the view
A daily close below $155.31, the 13 August 2026 close, which would erase the shares' three-month gain; or 2026 revenue before reimbursable expenses guidance cut below the $1.855 billion low end.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Organic growth keeps slowing and acquisitions mask it. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 organic RBR growth below the 6.7% of the third quarter while headline growth stays in double digits.
- AI substitution or client budget pressure weakens demand for billable consulting hours. Confirmed by: organic RBR growth turning negative in any quarter, or 2027 RBR guidance implying growth below 2026's.
- Healthcare, which carried the third quarter, loses pace. Confirmed by: healthcare segment RBR growth falling below 10% in the fourth quarter after 16.5% in the third.
- Further non-cash losses on the third-party convertible debt investment widen the gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings. Confirmed by: another credit loss on the investment disclosed in the 2026 10-K or a quarterly report.
What it trades with
Huron sells consulting to hospitals and health systems, universities and research institutions, and corporate clients. Its shares respond to health-system margins, higher-education budgets and corporate consulting spending. Listed consulting peers such as FTI Consulting and ICF International share those demand drivers and the market's question over whether artificial intelligence tools reduce demand for billable hours. Since 3 November 2026 the shares also trade with S&P SmallCap 600 index flows.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 RBR was $482.5 million, up 11.6% from $432.4 million; acquisitions contributed $21.1 million and organic growth was 6.7%. Huron 8-K (Exhibit 99.1), 3 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted diluted EPS was $2.62, up 24.8% from $2.10; adjusted EBITDA was $77.3 million, 16.0% of RBR. Huron 8-K (Exhibit 99.1), 3 November 2026 · as of
- 2026 guidance: RBR $1.855–$1.885 billion (midpoint unchanged), adjusted diluted EPS $9.20–$9.40 (from $9.00–$9.40), adjusted EBITDA 14.5%–15.0% of RBR. Huron 8-K (Exhibit 99.1), 3 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter segment RBR growth: Healthcare $255.8 million (+16.5%), Education $138.0 million (+6.6%), Commercial $88.8 million (+6.4%). Huron 8-K (Exhibit 99.1), 3 November 2026 · as of
- Huron repurchased 1.7 million shares for $234.9 million in the first nine months of 2026, about 10.0% of shares outstanding at 2025 year-end; the authorization was raised to $1.1 billion from $900 million on 29 October 2026. Huron 8-K (Exhibit 99.1), 3 November 2026 · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 RBR was $465.6 million, up 15.7% year over year, including 10.8% organic growth. Huron second-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.62 beat a $2.47 estimate and sales of $491.451 million beat a $481.386 million estimate. Benzinga, 3 November 2026 · as of
- Wedbush maintained Outperform with a $220 target on 4 November 2026; Barrington Research set a $217 target on 9 November 2026. Benzinga · as of
Sources