EFX · Equifax
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $224.92
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
16.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $224.92, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 6.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $224.92, the highest close of the last 252 sessions (9 January 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; an FHFA decision keeping the three-report requirement would also break the call.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 20 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,693
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +9.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 55.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 21.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 1,104
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −5,014
- Price to earnings (×)
- 29.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 4.1
All filed numbers
What Equifax reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,693 | +9.6 | 55.5 | 21.0 |
| first filed | 1,700 | +10.6 | 54.5 | 18.5 |
| first filed | 1,649 | +14.3 | 53.5 | 17.4 |
| first filed | 1,551 | +9.2 | 57.4 | 18.3 |
| first filed | 1,545 | +7.2 | 57.1 | 17.1 |
| first filed | 1,537 | +7.4 | 56.8 | 20.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 297 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 743 | 212 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −4.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,613 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 509 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,104 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 193 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 5,207 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −5,014 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +2.1% on a year | 113 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +62.1% on a year | 137 |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,104 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 4,473 |
| Market value ($M) | 22,013 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 27,027 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 4.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 21.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 29.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.9 days of average trading to cover, +7.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $11.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $465K | $36.4M |
The thesis
Equifax shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The October rebound already prices in the third-quarter strength outside mortgage, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has still not ruled on whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans can use two credit reports instead of three. Two things settle the case: that ruling, and the first 2027 guidance at the fourth-quarter report.
The company reported third-quarter revenue of $1.693 billion on 20 October 2026, up 10%, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.26, up 11%. Diversified Markets, the revenue outside U.S. mortgage, grew 8%. Management still cut the full-year revenue guide to $6.646 to $6.676 billion and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $1.605 to $1.635 billion. The reason was weaker U.S. mortgage demand late in the quarter.
The regulatory question is still open. HousingWire reported on 1 October 2026, citing Bloomberg, that FHFA planned to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bi-merge reports, with lenders choosing any two of the three bureaus and the rule taking effect one to three months after announcement. No formal directive had appeared in company news or mortgage-trade coverage by 11 November 2026. That leaves the shares exposed to one policy headline in either direction.
The price already reflects the recovery. The shares closed at $188.41 on 11 November 2026, close to RBC's $189 target and inside the $175 to $217 range of targets published after the third-quarter report. The rating is Low because the earnings news is known, the regulatory risk is unresolved, and the next scheduled results come in February 2027.
Bullish and bearish views on Equifax, Incorporated
The bull case on Equifax, Incorporated (EFX), in brief: non-mortgage revenue keeps growing. The bear case: the regulator keeps pressing bureaus.
Bull case
- Non-mortgage revenue keeps growing. Diversified Markets grew 8% in the third quarter. In the 20 October 2026 release, management kept its forecast of high-single-digit growth for that business through the end of 2026.
- The earnings guide barely moved. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance is $8.45 to $8.55, per the 20 October 2026 release. That held even after the cut to mortgage revenue.
- Verification revenue still grows. Workforce Solutions revenue rose 7% to $693.9 million in the third quarter. U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) revenue rose 13% to $599.1 million, per the 20 October 2026 release.
- Bi-merge exposure may be modest. TransUnion estimated in its September 2026 investor presentation, filed with the SEC, that a move to bi-merge would cost it under 1% of revenue. Equifax has not published a comparable figure.
- Several brokers see upside. After the third-quarter report, Stifel set a $217 target (cut from $235) and Needham a $210 target (raised from $190), both on 21 October 2026. Argus upgraded the shares to Buy with a $200 target on 22 October 2026.
Bear case
- The regulator keeps pressing bureaus. FHFA Director Bill Pulte posted on 26 October 2026 that the agency was "taking more action this week to ensure competition is real," per Benzinga. HousingWire reported on 12 October 2026 that he has also discussed single-bureau reports, a deeper cut than bi-merge.
- The fourth-quarter guide came in light. Equifax guided fourth-quarter revenue to $1.605 to $1.635 billion on 20 October 2026. Yahoo Finance coverage put the analyst estimate near $1.68 billion. Management expects mortgage weakness from higher rates to continue through year-end.
- Analysts cooled after the rebound. RBC downgraded the shares to Sector Perform from Outperform on 26 October 2026 and set a $189 target. BMO kept Market Perform with a $175 target on 21 October 2026. Autonomous Research trimmed its target to $185 from $186 on 26 October 2026.
- Top executives sold into the rally. Chief Executive Mark Begor exercised options on 37,792 shares at $112.46 on 23 October 2026 and sold the same number at an average $182.80. Chief Financial Officer John Gamble sold 4,000 shares at $177.68 on 29 October 2026. Both sales were under Rule 10b5-1 plans, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
- Mortgage verification has stalled. Workforce Solutions mortgage revenue was roughly flat in the third quarter, per the 20 October 2026 release. That is Equifax's most profitable mortgage business.
Price setup
The shares closed at $188.41 on 11 November 2026. That is 17.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $228.67 set on 9 January 2026, and well above the 52-week closing low of $137.24 on 30 September 2026. The price is up 1.8% over three months, measured from the $185.58 close on 13 August 2026.
The most recent closing high was $193.84 on 5 November 2026. The shares closed between $188.23 and $189.59 in the four sessions that followed. As of 11 November 2026, the 50-day moving average was $166.18 and the 200-day moving average was $175.31. The shares trade above both, but the 50-day average still sits below the 200-day. September's fall has not yet fully left the averages.
A close back under the 200-day moving average would mean the shares had given up their gains since the third-quarter report. A sustained move toward the January high would need a regulatory outcome or guidance better than the market now expects. The next scheduled company appearances are investor conferences on 17 November 2026 and 18 November 2026. Neither carries new numbers.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: CEO Mark Begor and CFO John Gamble fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference. First management comments since the 20 October 2026 report on fourth-quarter mortgage trends and FHFA policy; any change to the $1.605 to $1.635 billion fourth-quarter guide would show up here.
- 18 November 2026: Equifax investor relations at the RBC Global TIMT Conference. A second read on whether mortgage weakness and Diversified Markets growth are tracking the 20 October 2026 guidance.
- Unscheduled (est. Q4 2026): FHFA directive on bi-merge or single-bureau credit reports for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans. Settles the regulatory risk behind September's drop: a bi-merge or single-bureau rule cuts mortgage report volume, while keeping three reports removes the main overhang and would break the lag call.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Closing of the Círculo de Crédito acquisition in Mexico. Adds to International revenue, which grew 9% as reported in the third quarter, and widens growth outside U.S. mortgage.
- ~5 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report and first 2027 guidance. Shows whether revenue met the $1.605 to $1.635 billion guide and whether Diversified Markets held high-single-digit growth while mortgage stayed weak.
What would change the view
A daily close above $224.92, the highest close of the last 252 sessions (9 January 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; an FHFA decision keeping the three-report requirement would also break the call.
What it trades with
Equifax trades with TransUnion and Fair Isaac on FHFA headlines. On 4 September 2026, Fair Isaac fell as much as 21% and both bureaus fell as much as 11%, according to Bloomberg. TransUnion raised its buyback authorization by $1 billion to $2 billion on 27 October 2026, per Benzinga, so a peer is spending cash to support its share price.
Mortgage rates are the second shared driver. Equifax said on 20 October 2026 that rising rates weakened mortgage demand in the second half of the third quarter. The shares respond more to the regulator and to mortgage volumes than to the broader consumer-credit group.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1.693 billion, up 10% reported and 9% in local currency; adjusted EPS was $2.26, up 11%; Diversified Markets grew 8%. Equifax Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Full-year 2026 guidance is $6.646 to $6.676 billion revenue and $8.45 to $8.55 adjusted EPS; fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $1.605 to $1.635 billion. Equifax Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Workforce Solutions revenue rose 7% to $693.9 million with its mortgage revenue roughly flat; USIS revenue rose 13% to $599.1 million. Equifax Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- HousingWire, citing Bloomberg, reported FHFA planned to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bi-merge credit reports, effective one to three months after announcement. HousingWire, 1 October 2026 · as of
- CEO Mark Begor exercised options on 37,792 shares at $112.46 and sold 37,792 shares at an average $182.80 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 27 October 2026 · as of
- CFO John Gamble sold 4,000 shares at $177.68 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 2 November 2026 · as of
- RBC downgraded Equifax to Sector Perform from Outperform and raised its price target to $189 from $177. RBC Capital via Benzinga · as of
- Equifax shares fell 27.5% in September 2026, their worst month on record, then rose nearly 35% in October through Oct. 23, their best month since 1983. Benzinga, citing TradingView data · as of
Sources
- FHFA to move Fannie, Freddie to bi-merge credit checks · housingwire.com ·
- Pulte says FHFA weighing bi-merge, single credit report · housingwire.com
- Equifax Announces Participation in Upcoming Investor Conferences · finviz.com ·
- Equifax Soars 6% on Argus Upgrade to Buy, $200 Target as Growth Improves After Breach · tikr.com
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