INTR · Inter
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $4.39
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
5.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $4.39, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 21.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $4.39, over the recent trading range, which would show the shares recovering and leading the S&P 500 despite the credit-quality slippage. A fourth-quarter report with loans over 90 days overdue below 5.3% would also point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
The business · as of
Inter & Co. is a Brazilian digital bank and financial super app. It earns interest on loans, card and payroll credit, plus fees from payments, investments and insurance. Third-quarter 2026 net income was R$425 million, per Panabee's summary of the 6-K.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 12 November 2026 the company reported third-quarter 2026 net income of R$425 million, up 26% from a year earlier, while EPS and sales missed estimates.
- What follows for the company
- Loans more than 90 days overdue rose to 5.3% of the expanded portfolio from 4.5% a year earlier; the efficiency ratio improved to 41.9% and cost of risk was 5.9%.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Brazilian peers StoneCo (STNE), PagSeguro (PAGS) and Nu Holdings (NU) fell 29%, 25% and 21% on 26 October 2026 with Inter, so rates and the real hit the group together.
What the price assumes · as of
No valuation line is filed for this foreign filer, so no multiple is stated. The $4.15 close of 13 November 2026 is 59.9% below the 52-week high; holding it needs net income growth near the third quarter's 26% with loans over 90 days overdue at or below 5.3%.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Inter reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 1.3 days of average trading to cover, +89.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
Linked companies · as of
The thesis
Inter & Co.'s shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The 12 November 2026 third-quarter report showed profit growth but also rising late-stage overdue loans, and Brazilian interest rates and the real set the price more than the profit streak does. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 11 February 2027, shows whether credit quality holds.
A 12 November 2026 news headline put third-quarter earnings per share at $0.18 against a $0.19 estimate, and sales at $528.818 million against $537.770 million. Panabee's summary of the company's 6-K reports net income of R$425 million, up 26% from a year earlier. The shares closed at $4.15 on 13 November 2026, the first full session after the report, from $3.96 on 12 November 2026. That close is still below the 50-day and 200-day averages.
Bullish and bearish views on Inter & Co. Inc.
The bull case on Inter & Co. Inc. (INTR), in brief: profit keeps growing. The bear case: both headline numbers missed.
Bull case
- Profit keeps growing. Panabee's summary of the third-quarter results reports net income of R$425 million, up 26% from a year earlier. The company reported a record R$421 million (US$81 million) for the second quarter on 5 August 2026.
- Efficiency continues to improve. Panabee reports an efficiency ratio of 41.9% in the third quarter of 2026, down 5.8 percentage points from a year earlier.
- Loan book still expanding. Panabee reports the expanded loan portfolio at R$58.1 billion, up 25% from a year earlier, with private payroll loans up 147% to R$3.1 billion.
- Early-stage delinquency eased. Panabee reports loans 15 to 90 days overdue at 4.2% in the third quarter, down from 4.5% in the second.
- The shares already carry a large discount. The 13 November 2026 close of $4.15 is 59.9% below the 52-week high of $10.36 reached on 29 January 2026.
Bear case
- Both headline numbers missed. A 12 November 2026 news headline reported third-quarter EPS of $0.18 against a $0.19 estimate and sales of $528.818 million against $537.770 million. Second-quarter revenue of $475.45 million also missed the $513.31 million consensus, MarketBeat reported on 5 August 2026.
- Late-stage delinquency is rising. Panabee reports loans more than 90 days overdue at 5.3% of the expanded portfolio, up from 4.5% a year earlier, with an all-in cost of risk of 5.9% and a coverage ratio of 135% against 146% before.
- Higher rates threaten funding costs. TIKR tied the 26 October 2026 selloff to expectations of a weaker real and higher interest rates after Lula's expanded welfare benefits. Inter fell 36% on the first US session after the 25 October 2026 runoff, TIKR reported.
- The result is contested. Flávio Bolsonaro did not recognise the runoff result, France 24 reported on 25 October 2026.
- Pre-election targets are out of date. UBS raised its target to $10 on 20 October 2026, before the runoff and before the report. Targets set after the report have not surfaced.
Price setup
The shares closed at $4.15 on 13 November 2026 and at $3.96 on 12 November 2026. The closes from 6 November to 13 November 2026 ranged from $3.86 to $4.15. The 52-week closing low is $3.78, set on 5 November 2026.
The 50-day average of adjusted closes is $5.52 and the 200-day average is $6.52, both as of 13 November 2026. The 3-month change is −21.6%, measured from the $5.29 close of 17 August 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~11 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether loans over 90 days overdue stay at or below 5.3% and whether cost of risk stays near 5.9%.
- ~5 January 2027 (est.): Brazilian presidential inauguration. Policy on welfare spending and debt relief sets the rate path that drives Inter's funding costs and the real.
What would change the view
A daily close above $4.39, over the recent trading range, which would show the shares recovering and leading the S&P 500 despite the credit-quality slippage. A fourth-quarter report with loans over 90 days overdue below 5.3% would also point the same way.
What it trades with
The shares trade with the Brazilian fintech and bank group and with the real. On 26 October 2026, TIKR reported falls of 36% for Inter, 29% for StoneCo, 25% for PagSeguro and 21% for Nu Holdings. Benzinga reported the S&P 500 up 0.75% that day, so Brazilian political news moved the group while the US index rose.
US-dollar returns also depend on the real, because the company reports in reais.
The evidence, claim by claim (6)
- Third-quarter 2026 EPS of $0.18 missed the $0.19 estimate; sales of $528.818 million missed the $537.770 million estimate. News headline, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 net income of R$425 million, up 26% from a year earlier; loans over 90 days overdue 5.3% of the expanded portfolio versus 4.5% a year earlier; efficiency ratio 41.9%; all-in cost of risk 5.9%. Panabee summary of the 3Q26 results (company 6-K filed 12 November 2026) · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 net income was a record R$421 million (US$81 million). Inter&Co 2Q26 earnings release · as of
- Second-quarter revenue of $475.45 million missed the $513.31 million consensus; EPS beat by $0.01. MarketBeat · as of
- Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.8% of the vote to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2%. CBS News · as of
- Inter & Co fell 36% on the first US session after the runoff; StoneCo fell 29%, PagSeguro 25% and Nu Holdings 21%. TIKR · as of
Sources
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