SE · Sea

The thesis

Sea Limited's Q3 report on 10 November 2026 beat on revenue and showed Shopee profit rising, but Monee's bad-loan ratio rose to 1.3% and earnings per share (EPS) missed, so a rebound from the $76.80 close is unproven. The Q4 report, expected around March 2027, settles whether Shopee reaches its $1 billion 2026 adjusted EBITDA goal (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).

Revenue was $8.6 billion, up 43.4% from a year earlier. GAAP net income was $502.5 million, up 34.0% (Sea Form 6-K, 10 November 2026). EPS was $0.78, below the consensus of $0.81 in a Benzinga headline and $0.99 in Investing.com's report. Revenue of $8.582 billion beat the $8.045 billion estimate in the same Benzinga headline.

The earlier questions have partly resolved. Management said on the call that it is on track for about 25% GMV (gross merchandise value) growth and $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA for Shopee in 2026. It called Sea Cloud "at a very, very early stage" with no enterprise contracts signed, and said it will be "very, very frugal" on capital spending. It hopes to list Monee in one to three years and is "not in any rush" (Investing.com call summary, 10 November 2026).

The new problem is credit. Monee's 90-day non-performing loan ratio of 1.3% is above the 1.0% reported for Q2. The story is well known: the growth story is well known, the 10 November 2026 report brought no new catalyst, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has recovered to 47.5 from 21.0 on 28 October 2026.

Bullish and bearish views on Sea Limited

The bull case on Sea Limited (SE), in brief: revenue beat with profit rising. The bear case: loan quality weakened.

Bull case

• Revenue beat with profit rising. Revenue grew 43.4% to $8.6 billion and gross profit rose 51.4% to $3.9 billion (Sea Form 6-K, 10 November 2026). Net income of $502.5 million was up 34.0%.
• Shopee profit outpaced orders. Shopee adjusted EBITDA was $269.2 million, up 44.7%, on GMV of $39.7 billion, up 23.3% (10 November 2026). Investing.com's summary says management called the $1 billion 2026 goal on track.
• Gaming bookings recovered from Q2. Garena bookings were $890.0 million, up 5.9%, against $763.5 million in Q2 and $931 million in Q1. Garena adjusted EBITDA was $458.2 million, up 45.9%.
• The buyback was renewed. Sea had spent $997.2 million on 11.1 million shares by the report date, and the board approved another $1.0 billion with no expiry on 9 November 2026.
• The cloud and listing worries eased. Management gave no near-term financial impact for Sea Cloud and a one-to-three-year window for a Monee listing (Investing.com, 10 November 2026).
• Analyst targets sit far above the price. Jefferies' target is $142 (10 November 2026), JPMorgan's is $149 (28 October 2026) and Morgan Stanley's is $153 (15 September 2026).

Bear case

• Loan quality weakened. Monee's 90-day non-performing loan ratio was 1.3%, against 1.1% in Q3 2025 and 1.0% in Q2. Management attributed the rise to Thailand, Brazil and faster growth of SPayLater outside Shopee, and said it tightened underwriting for selected segments. Loans outstanding were $12.6 billion, up 60.0%.
• EPS missed. EPS was $0.78 against consensus figures of $0.81 to $0.99 depending on the source (Benzinga and Investing.com, 10 November 2026).
• The profit measure changed. From Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA excludes the net change in Garena's deferred revenue, which was $52.0 million in Q3 2026 and $151.9 million in Q3 2025. The 28.9% growth to $931.3 million is measured against a restated $722.3 million and cannot be compared with the 10.6% reported for Q2.
• Monee profit grew slowly. Monee adjusted EBITDA was $298.3 million, up 15.5%, against 60.0% loan growth.
• Cash fell. Cash and cash equivalents were $2.9 billion at 30 September 2026, down from $4.2 billion at 31 December 2025. Short-term investments were $5.1 billion and restricted cash $2.3 billion.
• Rivals and AI costs draw attention. Benzinga's headline of 10 November 2026 says AI bills are piling up as Shopee battles aggressive e-commerce rivals.
• Insiders and large holders sold earlier. A 23 October 2026 report said Chief Compliance Officer and General Counsel Wang Yanjun sold Class A shares. Tiger Global's 13F amendment of 14 August 2026 showed a 19% cut to 12,559,152 shares for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.

Price setup

The adjusted close on 10 November 2026 was $76.80, 50.5% below the 52-week high of $155.05 (split- and dividend-adjusted daily closes). The three-month price change is −37.7%. The close on 28 October 2026 was $75.18, so the shares ended the report day close to where they sat two weeks earlier. Yahoo Finance reported the shares slipped 1.5% on the day.

Investing.com cited a 52-week low of $71.53. The 14-day RSI of 47.5 compares with 21.0 on 28 October 2026 and 16.3 on 2 October 2026, so the extreme selling has ended.

Crowding evidence is light. The shares are far below their high, the next earnings date is months away, and the company has a fresh $1.0 billion repurchase authorization. Insider selling reported on 23 October 2026 and Tiger Global's earlier cut are the visible holder-side pressures.

Catalysts ahead

• ~16 November 2026 (est.): 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. Shows whether large growth holders such as Tiger Global cut their stakes further after the 19% cut reported for the prior quarter.
• ~March 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 results. Settles whether Shopee reached $1 billion of 2026 adjusted EBITDA and whether Monee's non-performing loan ratio kept rising.

Elapsed catalysts

• 11 November 2026: Shopee 11.11 Big Sale day, launched after the 8 November 2026 campaign start. Shopee's biggest promotion of the fourth quarter; any order or GMV figures the company publishes show whether the 25% GMV growth target is on pace. (passed)

What would change the view

A daily close above $92.52, the 50-day average of closes (11 November 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.

What it trades with

Sea's shares trade with other Southeast Asian and Brazilian consumer internet names. These include Grab, MercadoLibre and Alibaba's Lazada, which compete with or sit beside Shopee, Monee and Garena. Revenue is earned mostly in Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real and Thai baht (Sea 20-F), so currency moves feed into reported US dollar growth. No correlation coefficient has been measured for this note.