SEPN · Septerna
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $54.87
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $54.87, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 3.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $54.87, over the $53.34 intraday 52-week high of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or SEP-479 Phase 1 data reported with no Grade-3 liver finding before 15 February 2027.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 18.9
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −12.2
- Operating margin (%)
- −144.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −77.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 479
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 16.1
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −3.8
All filed numbers
What Septerna reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 18.9 | −12.2 | −144.2 |
| first filed | 26.7 | +22375.6 | −62.9 |
| first filed | 26.5 | +12011.0 | −50.1 |
| first filed | 24.1 | +11276.4 | −66.4 |
| first filed | 21.5 | +12113.1 | 12.2 |
| first filed | 0.1 | −67.8 | −24351.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −22.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −59.0 | −26.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −76.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −77.6 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 479 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 479 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −22.3% on a year | 142 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 18.9 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 428 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,026 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,547 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 16.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −3.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.6 days of average trading to cover, +13.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $4.2M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $80.1M |
The thesis
Septerna's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter 2026 report on 9 November 2026 missed on revenue and loss, and the first new human data are not due until the first quarter of 2027. Those data are the SEP-479 Phase 1 liver-safety results, and they settle the case.
The November advance rested on analyst target raises and a new drug candidate, while the quarter's own numbers weakened. Wells Fargo, Guggenheim and Stifel raised their targets between 4 November 2026 and 10 November 2026. The shares then fell for two sessions. They closed at $48.56 on 11 November 2026, after an intraday 52-week high of $53.34, and at $41.86 on 12 November 2026. No company announcement accompanied the 12 November 2026 decline. At the Stifel conference on 11 November 2026, management said the SEP-479 trial remains on track (Investing.com, 12 November 2026).
The price still reflects a pipeline that works. MarketBeat put Septerna's market value at $2.22 billion on 11 November 2026, against cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $565.2 million at 30 September 2026 (third-quarter release). The rating is Low because the business has no dated result before the first quarter of 2027 that could support a higher value, and the 9 November 2026 report pointed the other way. The two-session fall moves the shares in the direction the call expects; it does not change the business evidence.
Bullish and bearish views on Septerna, Inc.
The bull case on Septerna, Inc. (SEPN), in brief: brokers raised targets after the report. The bear case: the third quarter missed on both lines.
Bull case
- Brokers raised targets after the report. Stifel kept its Buy rating and raised its target to $60 from $49 on 10 November 2026 (GuruFocus, MarketBeat). Wells Fargo went to $61 from $50 on 4 November 2026, and Guggenheim to $65 from $51 on 6 November 2026 (Benzinga, fiscal.ai).
- Consensus target sits well above the price. MarketBeat's consensus on 11 November 2026 was a Moderate Buy, with one Strong Buy, eight Buy, one Hold and one Sell rating. The average target was $56.44, in a range of $48 to $62.
- SEP-204 now has a clinical date. The 9 November 2026 release guides a Phase 1 healthy-volunteer start for SEP-204 in the first quarter of 2027. SEP-204 is an oral thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) receptor blocker for Graves' disease and thyroid eye disease, selected as a candidate on 4 November 2026.
- SEP-479 timing held. The third-quarter release keeps single- and multiple-ascending-dose data from the SEP-479 Phase 1 study in the first quarter of 2027. SEP-479 is an oral parathyroid hormone 1 receptor (PTH1R) agonist for hypoparathyroidism; management called it the only oral small-molecule PTH1R agonist in development on 11 November 2026 (Investing.com).
- Novo Nordisk moved a partnered program forward. Management said on 11 November 2026 that Novo Nordisk has selected a first candidate from the collaboration and that research milestones received total about $13 million (Investing.com, 12 November 2026).
- Cash covers the plan. Cash and securities rose to $565.2 million at 30 September 2026 from $516.5 million at 30 June 2026. Management projects funding at least into mid-2029, before any further Novo milestones (third-quarter release).
Bear case
- The third quarter missed on both lines. Revenue was $18.9 million against a $20.78 million estimate, and the loss was $0.57 per share against an estimated $0.45 (Benzinga, 9 November 2026). Revenue was $26.7 million in the second quarter of 2026 and $21.5 million in the third quarter of 2025.
- The loss widened as spending rose. Third-quarter research and development (R&D) expense was $36.6 million, against $24.3 million a year earlier. The net loss was $26.6 million, against net income of $8.2 million in the third quarter of 2025 (third-quarter release).
- Novo Nordisk upfront revenue has shrunk. Third-quarter revenue included $2.7 million of amortization of Novo's $195.0 million upfront payment, against $12.8 million a year earlier. Research services ($11.0 million) and milestones ($5.2 million) now carry the top line, and both vary by quarter.
- Large holders sold in August. RA Capital Management, a director and 10% owner, sold 1,493,000 shares at $42.50 on 12 August 2026. Third Rock Ventures V sold 147,200 shares at an average $50.27 the same day under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4 filings).
- Executives have sold too. President and COO Elizabeth Bhatt sold 25,000 shares at $44.00 on 11 August 2026 and 4,000 shares at an average $37.41 on 15 October 2026. SVP Daniel Long sold 3,333 shares at $37.83 on 1 September 2026, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4 filings).
- The company has sold stock at the market. The second-quarter 10-Q shows 380,172 shares sold for $13.8 million net in the second quarter of 2026, plus 935,730 shares in July 2026 for $33.7 million net.
- The class safety question is open. The predecessor SEP-786 was discontinued on 18 February 2025 after two Grade-3 bilirubin elevations. Management said on 11 November 2026 that SEP-479 is a different chemical series that does not inhibit the UGT1A1 liver enzyme tied to that finding, but human data have not yet shown it.
Price setup
The shares closed at $41.86 on 12 November 2026, down from $48.56 on 11 November 2026 and $52.34 on 10 November 2026, the highest close of the November advance. The last close sits 21.5% below the intraday 52-week high of $53.34 set on 11 November 2026. It is also below the $47.35 close of 5 November 2026, so the whole gain around the SEP-204 selection and the third-quarter report has gone.
On adjusted daily closes as of 12 November 2026, the 50-day moving average is $40.35 and the 200-day is $33.03. The shares now sit just above the 50-day average and well above the 200-day. The 3-month change is a 5.9% decline, measured from $44.50 on 14 August 2026.
The 52-week closing low was $19.23 on 12 November 2025, so the shares have roughly doubled over the year on pipeline progress, with reported revenue falling from a year earlier. A close back under the 50-day average would put the shares below the level they held through the autumn.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: UBS Global Biopharma Conference fireside chat, London, 2:00 p.m. GMT. A venue for detail on the SEP-204 path to its Phase 1 start in the first quarter of 2027 and on Novo Nordisk milestone timing after the third-quarter miss.
- 1 December 2026: 9th Annual Evercore Healthcare Conference fireside chat, Miami, 7:55 a.m. ET. Last scheduled management appearance of 2026; any change to SEP-479 readout timing would most likely surface here.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): End of the first-quarter 2027 window for SEP-479 Phase 1 data and the SEP-204 Phase 1 start. SEP-479 liver-safety results test the class question left by SEP-786; the date marks the end of the guided window, with no presentation scheduled.
What would change the view
A daily close above $54.87, over the $53.34 intraday 52-week high of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or SEP-479 Phase 1 data reported with no Grade-3 liver finding before 15 February 2027.
What it trades with
The shares carry a beta of 2.20 (MarketBeat, 11 November 2026), so they tend to move more than the broad market and follow sentiment toward small and mid-cap clinical-stage biotech. A broad biotech rally would lift them faster than the index, which is the main way a lag call fails without company news. Company-specific moves come from Novo Nordisk collaboration milestones, PTH1R-class safety news and management commentary at the remaining 2026 conferences on 16 November 2026 and 1 December 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $18.9 million against a $20.78 million estimate; the loss was $0.57 per share against a $0.45 estimate. Benzinga earnings headline · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 net loss was $26.6 million against net income of $8.2 million a year earlier; research and development expense rose to $36.6 million from $24.3 million. Septerna third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue comprised $11.0 million research services, $5.2 million research milestones and $2.7 million amortization of Novo Nordisk's $195.0 million upfront payment. Septerna third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $565.2 million; runway guided at least into mid-2029. Septerna third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- SEP-479 Phase 1 data and a SEP-204 Phase 1 healthy-volunteer start are both guided for the first quarter of 2027; management said on 11 November 2026 the SEP-479 trial remains on track. Septerna third-quarter 2026 results release; Stifel conference coverage, Investing.com · as of
- Stifel maintained a Buy rating on Septerna and raised its price target to $60 from $49. GuruFocus / Benzinga analyst-action reports · as of
- MarketBeat consensus was Moderate Buy (one Strong Buy, eight Buy, one Hold, one Sell) with an average price target of $56.44 in a $48–62 range. MarketBeat · as of
- President and COO Elizabeth Bhatt sold 4,000 shares at an average $37.41 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan after exercising options at $6.81. SEC Form 4 filed 19 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Septerna Highlights Business Progress and Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · biospace.com
- Septerna at stifel 2026 healthcare conference: oral pipeline in focus · in.investing.com ·
- Septerna (NASDAQ:SEPN) Stock Price Down 6.9% - Time to Sell? · marketbeat.com ·
- SEPN Maintained by Stifel -- Price Target Raised to $60 · gurufocus.com
- Septerna Q3 earnings: revenue falls to $18.9M · stocktitan.net
- Septerna to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences · finviz.com ·
- Septerna posts strong Novo-driven revenue, trims loss · stocktitan.net
- Septerna (NASDAQ:SEPN) Sets New 52-Week High Following Analyst Upgrade · marketbeat.com ·
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