RYZ · Ryerson Holding
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $35.03
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
16.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $35.03, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 0.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $35.03, over the $33.72 52-week high of 2 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a raised fourth-quarter outlook would also prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2,178
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +87.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 17.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 2.4
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −966
- Price to earnings (×)
- 106.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.4
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 34.7
All filed numbers
What Ryerson Holding reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2,178 | +87.5 | 17.2 | 2.4 |
| first filed | 2,006 | +71.6 | 17.7 | 1.7 |
| first filed | 1,567 | +37.9 | 18.4 | 1.5 |
| first filed | 1,105 | +9.7 | 15.3 | −3.4 |
| first filed | 1,162 | +3.1 | 17.2 | −0.1 |
| first filed | 1,169 | −4.6 | 17.9 | 0.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 36.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 14.1 | 32.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +63.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | 70.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 40.5 |
| Debt ($M) | 1,006 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −966 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +14.8% on a year | 19.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,018 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,303 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,313 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,506 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,472 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 34.7 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 106.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.0 days of average trading to cover, +23.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $782K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $3.2M |
The thesis
Ryerson's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, even though its merger with Olympic Steel is running ahead of plan. Three things weigh on the shares. The 16.18% fall of 5 November 2026 still has no stated cause. Two officers sold stock the session before it. The company also guides fourth-quarter earnings below the third quarter. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 25 February 2027, will show whether the merger gains hold.
Most of the fall has since been recovered. The shares closed at $30.46 on 11 November 2026, against $26.58 on 5 November 2026 and $31.71 on 4 November 2026. No company release, 8-K or share offering explaining the fall had surfaced by 12 November 2026. Company news carried a "Ryerson Provides Fourth Quarter 2026 Outlook" headline on 11 November 2026. No figures were found that differ from the ranges in the company's 28 October 2026 results release.
The rating is Low because no new operating fact explains the rebound. The weaker parts of the case are still ahead: lower fourth-quarter volume, negative operating cash flow and a Hold rating from the one firm with a recent target. The 11 November 2026 close is 9.7% below the $33.72 52-week high of 2 November 2026, so the price already reflects most of the third-quarter beat.
Bullish and bearish views on Ryerson Holding Corporation
The bull case on Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYZ), in brief: synergies are running ahead of target. The bear case: the largest one-day fall has no explanation.
Bull case
- Synergies are running ahead of target. Ryerson realized about $13 million of merger savings in the third quarter. That is a $52 million annualized run rate against a $40 million first-year target (company release, 28 October 2026). Management guides $14 million to $15 million of fourth-quarter savings and keeps its $120 million two-year run-rate target.
- Results beat the company's own guidance. Third-quarter revenue was $2,177.8 million, up 87.5% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) excluding LIFO (last-in, first-out inventory accounting) was $115.0 million, against guidance of $88 million to $92 million (company release, 28 October 2026).
- Fourth-quarter guidance is far above estimates. The company guided GAAP earnings per share (EPS) to $0.30–$0.38, against a $0.09 consensus. It guided sales to $1.96–$2.04 billion, against $1.816 billion (Benzinga, 28 October 2026).
- Olympic Steel is beating its own plan. The acquired business contributed $30.2 million of adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO in the third quarter, against management's expectation of $21 million to $23 million (company release, 28 October 2026). The fourth-quarter guide includes $28 million to $30 million from Olympic Steel.
- Leverage fell quickly. Net debt to trailing adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO fell to 3.2 times at 30 September 2026, from 4.0 times at mid-year. Liquidity rose to $865 million from $757 million (company release, 28 October 2026).
- Buyers returned within four sessions. The shares closed at $29.78 on 9 November 2026 and $30.46 on 11 November 2026, above both the 50-day and 200-day averages (adjusted daily closes).
Bear case
- The largest one-day fall has no explanation. On 5 November 2026 the shares traded between $32.37 and $26.43 and closed at $26.58, on 1,012,980 shares against a 499,228 average (Yahoo Finance). No company statement on the move had appeared by 12 November 2026.
- Two officers sold the day before. Chief executive Edward Lehner sold 21,968 shares at $31.22 on 4 November 2026. Executive vice president Andrew Greiff sold 3,000 shares at $32.10 the same day (SEC Form 4 filings, 5 November 2026 and 6 November 2026). Director Michael Siegal reported a gift of 25,000 shares on 5 November 2026 (SEC Form 4, 6 November 2026).
- Fourth-quarter volume steps down. Ryerson guides shipments down 6% to 8% from the third quarter, citing three fewer business days and holiday softness. Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO is guided to $100–$104 million, below the $115.0 million just reported (company release, 28 October 2026).
- Cash flow went the wrong way. Operating cash flow was negative $18.2 million in the third quarter as working capital absorbed cash (company release, 28 October 2026). Net debt was $965.6 million on 30 September 2026, so further debt reduction depends on that reversing.
- Earnings swing with metal prices. The average selling price rose 7.2% from the prior quarter to $2,675 per ton. The company guides $28–$32 million of fourth-quarter LIFO expense, with softer stainless and aluminum prices only partly offset by carbon steel (company release, 28 October 2026).
- The one recent target is a Hold. BMO Capital analyst Katja Jancic kept a Hold rating on 3 November 2026 while raising her target to $33 (fiscal.ai). The 11 November 2026 close of $30.46 is already close to that target.
Price setup
The quoted close was $31.71 on 4 November 2026 and $26.58 on 5 November 2026. The shares then closed at $27.60 on 6 November 2026, $29.78 on 9 November 2026, $30.10 on 10 November 2026 and $30.46 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $33.72, set on 2 November 2026, and the 52-week closing low is $19.86 on 17 November 2025.
On adjusted daily closes, the 50-day average is $26.79 and the 200-day average is $26.21, both as of 11 November 2026. The shares are up 6.3% over three months. The nearest reference below the market is the $26.43 session low of 5 November 2026 (Yahoo Finance), which sits just above the 50-day average. Above, the $33.72 high of 2 November 2026 is the level a recovery would have to clear.
Sell-side coverage is thin, the fall came on about twice average volume, and no earnings report is due before late February 2027. That leaves the shares exposed to flows and filings rather than results until then.
Catalysts ahead
- 3 December 2026: Record and ex-dividend date for the $0.1875 quarterly dividend, payable 17 December 2026. Shows the dividend is maintained while the company pays down debt after the merger.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO met the $100–$104 million guidance, whether synergies reached $14–$15 million, and whether operating cash flow turned positive.
What would change the view
A daily close above $35.03, over the $33.72 52-week high of 2 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a raised fourth-quarter outlook would also prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
Ryerson's earnings follow metal prices and industrial shipment volumes, as the third-quarter gain in price per ton and the LIFO guidance show (company release, 28 October 2026). Net debt of $965.6 million at 30 September 2026 adds sensitivity to the industrial cycle. Results now include Olympic Steel, so year-over-year growth is a poor comparison with peers until early 2027. Trade press searches found no sector-wide steel event around 5 November 2026. The fall reads as specific to Ryerson until a cause is published.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- CEO Edward J. Lehner sold 21,968 shares in the open market at $31.22 on 4 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 5 November 2026 · as of
- EVP Andrew S. Greiff sold 3,000 shares in the open market at $32.10 on 4 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 6 November 2026 · as of
- BMO Capital analyst Katja Jancic maintained a Hold rating and raised the price target to $33. fiscal.ai news · as of
- Third-quarter revenue was $2,177.8 million, up 87.5% year over year; adjusted EPS was $0.61 against a $0.41 consensus. Ryerson Q3 2026 earnings release; Benzinga · as of
- Adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO was $115.0 million against $88–$92 million guidance; synergies reached a ~$52 million annualized run rate against a $40 million first-year target. Ryerson Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Fourth-quarter guidance: shipments down 6%–8% from Q3, sales $1.96–$2.04 billion, adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO $100–$104 million, EPS $0.30–$0.38. Ryerson Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Net debt was $965.6 million, 3.2 times trailing adjusted EBITDA excluding LIFO, down from 4.0 times in Q2; third-quarter operating cash flow was negative $18.2 million. Ryerson Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
Sources
- Ryerson Holding Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Ryerson Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · prnewswire.com
- Ryerson Holding Corporation Provides Earnings Guidance for the Fourth Quarter of 2026 · marketscreener.com ·
- Edward J. Lehner's Ryerson (RYZ) sale notice lists 15,603 and 6,365 shares dated November 4. · stocktitan.net
- Ryerson (NYSE:RYZ) Stock: Insider Andrew Greiff Sells 3,000 Shares · marketbeat.com ·
- Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYZ) Stock Price, News, Quote & History · finance.yahoo.com
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