CMCO · Columbus McKinnon
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $15.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
38.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $15.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 8.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $15.00, which would erase the entire gain since the 3 November 2026 report and put the shares under their 50- and 200-day moving averages. The case also breaks if fiscal third-quarter leverage is above 4.9x or the $2.13–2.17 billion sales guide is cut.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 539
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +106.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 34.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −153
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,301
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.6
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −25.6
All filed numbers
What Columbus McKinnon reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 539 | +106.6 | 34.8 | 6.5 |
| first filed | 532 | +125.3 | 27.5 | −3.3 |
| first filed | 438 | +77.3 | 23.5 | −35.0 |
| first filed | 259 | +10.5 | 34.5 | 6.3 |
| first filed | 261 | +7.7 | 34.5 | 4.7 |
| first filed | 236 | −1.6 | 32.7 | 2.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −9.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −347 | −25.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −125 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 27.8 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −153 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 111 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 2,412 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,301 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +14.1% on a year | 21.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −34.9% on a year | 27.0 |
| Receivables ($M) | 384 |
| Inventory ($M) | 568 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,339 |
| Market value ($M) | 599 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,900 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −25.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.6 days of average trading to cover, +11.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $598K | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $746K | $160K |
The thesis
Columbus McKinnon's Kito Crosby merger is earning more than forecast, and the chief executive bought shares on the open market two days after the report. That gives the shares modestly better-than-even odds of beating the S&P 500 over three months. The fiscal third-quarter report, expected around early February 2027, decides it by showing whether debt falls below 4.9 times earnings.
On 3 November 2026 the company raised fiscal 2027 guidance for the second time. Its leverage ratio stayed at 4.9x, and free cash flow was negative for the quarter (company release, 3 November 2026). President and CEO David Wilson bought 32,631 shares on 5 November 2026 at an average of $16.90, according to his SEC Form 4 filed 9 November 2026. The shares closed at $21.81 on 11 November 2026, up from $17.62 on 6 November 2026.
At $21.81 the shares already price in most of the raised guidance. They sit close to the $23.50 consensus average target MarketBeat listed on 4 November 2026, after the report. Further gains depend on the cash-flow and debt figures, not on another earnings beat. The rating is Medium because the earnings beat, the raised guidance and the CEO's purchase outweigh flat leverage, while the rally since 6 November 2026 has used up much of the gap to analyst targets.
Bullish and bearish views on Columbus McKinnon Corporation
The bull case on Columbus McKinnon Corporation (CMCO), in brief: guidance rose on every profit line. The bear case: debt did not fall in the quarter.
Bull case
- Guidance rose on every profit line. On 3 November 2026 the company lifted fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance to $425–440 million from $405–420 million. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance rose to $2.00–2.15 from $1.90–2.10, against a $2.01 estimate (Benzinga, 3 November 2026).
- The chief executive bought after the report. David Wilson bought 32,631 shares at $16.65–$17.52 on 5 November 2026 (SEC Form 4, filed 9 November 2026), about $551,349 in total (Investing.com). Director Christopher Stephens bought 2,750 shares at $17.14 on 20 August 2026 (SEC Form 4).
- The quarter beat estimates by a wide margin. Adjusted EPS of $0.61 beat a $0.38 estimate, and sales of $539.3 million beat a $518.6 million estimate for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (Benzinga, 3 November 2026). Adjusted EBITDA was $111.2 million, a 20.6% margin (company release).
- The legacy business is still growing. Legacy Columbus McKinnon net sales rose 5.3% year over year in the quarter, helped by both price and volume (company release, 3 November 2026).
- Leverage is lower than at the start of the year. The Credit Agreement Net Leverage Ratio, the company's measure of debt against earnings, was 4.9x at 30 September 2026, down from 5.1x at 31 March 2026. Liquidity was $532.0 million, including $110.9 million of cash (company release).
- JPMorgan sees more room. JPMorgan kept its Overweight rating and raised its target to $30 from $29 on 4 November 2026 (Benzinga; MarketBeat).
Bear case
- Debt did not fall in the quarter. The leverage ratio was 4.9x at both 30 June 2026 and 30 September 2026 (company releases).
- Cash flow turned negative. Free cash flow was negative $15.4 million for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, and the fiscal year-to-date total is $4.6 million (company release, 3 November 2026). The release gave no full-year free cash flow guidance.
- Orders cooled. Orders were $562.6 million with a ratio of orders to sales of 1.0x, against $568.1 million and 1.1x in the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (company releases).
- Reported results are still losses. The second-quarter GAAP net loss was $25.5 million, or $0.76 per share, including $12.5 million of acquisition and integration expenses (company release, 3 November 2026).
- Interest costs absorb gains. Full-year interest expense guidance stayed at $185–190 million (company release, 3 November 2026), so EBITDA gains must outrun a fixed financing bill.
- The consensus is more cautious than JPMorgan. MarketBeat listed a consensus Hold rating and a $23.50 average target on 4 November 2026, from one Strong Buy, one Buy, two Hold and one Sell rating.
Price setup
The shares closed at $21.81 on 11 November 2026, 10.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $24.40 set on 10 February 2026. The 52-week closing low was $12.12 on 10 June 2026. The 3-month change is +14.8%, against a $19.07 close on 13 August 2026.
The report moved the shares in two stages. They closed at $18.59 on 4 November 2026, then fell to $16.53 on 5 November 2026, the day the CEO bought. The $0.07 dividend went ex on 6 November 2026, when the shares closed at $17.62. They then closed at $19.67 on 9 November 2026, the day his Form 4 was filed, followed by $20.32 on 10 November 2026 and $21.81 on 11 November 2026. Company news shows no other headline in those sessions.
The 50-day moving average was $16.36 and the 200-day moving average $16.30 as of 11 November 2026. The last close sits well above both. The CEO's purchase range of $16.65–$17.52 on 5 November 2026 lies just above them. The 10 February 2026 high of $24.40 is the nearest prior high above the price.
Catalysts ahead
- ~1 December 2026 (est.): Institute for Supply Management November manufacturing index. The new-orders component gives industrial demand context while the company's ratio of orders to sales sits at 1.0x.
- ~3 February 2027 (est.): Fiscal 2027 third-quarter report for the quarter ending 31 December 2026. Settles whether leverage falls below 4.9x and free cash flow turns positive, the part of the case the raised guidance has not yet confirmed.
What would change the view
A daily close below $15.00, which would erase the entire gain since the 3 November 2026 report and put the shares under their 50- and 200-day moving averages. The case also breaks if fiscal third-quarter leverage is above 4.9x or the $2.13–2.17 billion sales guide is cut.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Kito Crosby integration does not turn raised earnings guidance into debt reduction. Confirmed by: a Credit Agreement Net Leverage Ratio at or above 4.9x at the fiscal third-quarter report, with free cash flow negative again.
- Industrial demand slows before the combined company has a sustained order record. Confirmed by: a fiscal third-quarter ratio of orders to sales below 1.0x, against 1.0x for the quarter ended 30 September 2026.
- The raised $2.13–2.17 billion sales outlook proves too high, with European demand soft. Confirmed by: a cut to the sales or adjusted EBITDA range at the next earnings report.
- Fixed interest costs absorb EBITDA gains and keep GAAP results negative. Confirmed by: another quarterly GAAP net loss with adjusted EPS flat year over year, as in the quarter ended 30 September 2026.
What it trades with
Columbus McKinnon sells hoists, rigging and lifting products, so its orders track industrial and manufacturing activity. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index is the closest public read on that demand. Interest rates matter more for this company than for most industrials, because its fiscal 2027 interest expense is guided at $185–190 million. Management described European demand as soft on the 30 July 2026 call (MarketBeat).
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Quarter ended Sept 30, 2026: sales $539.3 million (+107%), orders $562.6 million, book-to-bill 1.0x, legacy sales +5.3%, adjusted EBITDA $111.2 million, adjusted EPS $0.61. Columbus McKinnon Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Fiscal 2027 guidance raised to $2.13–2.17 billion sales, $425–440 million adjusted EBITDA, $2.00–2.15 adjusted EPS; interest expense unchanged at $185–190 million. Columbus McKinnon Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release; Benzinga · as of
- Credit Agreement Net Leverage Ratio 4.9x at Sept 30, 2026 (5.1x at Mar 31, 2026); liquidity $532.0 million including $110.9 million cash. Columbus McKinnon Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release · as of
- Second-quarter free cash flow was negative $15.4 million; fiscal year-to-date free cash flow $4.6 million. Columbus McKinnon Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release · as of
- Second-quarter GAAP net loss $25.5 million ($0.76 per share), including $12.5 million of acquisition and integration expenses. Columbus McKinnon Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release · as of
- President and CEO David Wilson bought 32,631 shares in the open market at $16.65–$17.52 (average $16.90). SEC Form 4 filed 9 November 2026 · as of
- JPMorgan maintained Overweight and raised its price target to $30 from $29. Benzinga; MarketBeat · as of
- Consensus rating Hold with a $23.50 average price target, from one Strong Buy, one Buy, two Hold and one Sell rating. MarketBeat · as of
Sources
- COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORP - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Columbus McKinnon president & CEO David Wilson acquires $551,349 in stock · investing.com
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. Forecasts Strong Price Appreciation for Columbus McKinnon (NASDAQ:CMCO) Stock · marketbeat.com ·
- Columbus McKinnon Shares Rise After Raising Fiscal 2027 Guidance · marketscreener.com
- Finviz
- Why has Columbus McKinnon raised its FY2027 outlook after Q2 revenue more than doubled · finviz.com
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