CME · CME Group
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $264.48
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $264.48, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 19.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $264.48, under the 200-day moving average, which would erase the rally that followed the September and third-quarter volume records. Monthly average daily volume under the 26.3 million contracts of October 2025 would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 23 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,737
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +13.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 65.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 4,333
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,096
- Price to earnings (×)
- 25.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 16.5
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 25.2
All filed numbers
What CME Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,737 | +13.0 | 65.7 |
| first filed | 1,706 | +0.8 | 64.9 |
| first filed | 1,880 | +14.5 | 69.7 |
| first filed | 1,649 | +8.1 | 61.8 |
| first filed | 1,538 | −3.0 | 63.3 |
| first filed | 1,692 | +10.4 | 66.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 1,355 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 4,416 | 1,037 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 4,427 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 93.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 4,333 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,330 |
| Debt ($M) unsecured debt | 3,425 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,096 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +11.8% on a year | 35.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 788 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 26,560 |
| Market value ($M) | 114,037 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 115,133 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 16.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 25.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 25.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.6 days of average trading to cover, −9.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $79K | $9.7M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $667K | $35.3M |
The thesis
CME Group is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months because record trading volume has already reached revenue, and October volume stayed near that pace. The November volume release, expected around 2 December 2026, shows whether activity holds.
October average daily volume was 30 million contracts, a record for the month and up 15% from 26.3 million in October 2025 (CME release, 3 November 2026). Third-quarter revenue was $1,737.3 million against $1,537.6 million a year earlier (CME 8-K, 21 October 2026).
The market already prices much of this. The shares closed at $315.50 on 12 November 2026, up 17.5% over three months and 4.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $329.16 set on 3 March 2026. Interest rate products drove the gain, so the case depends on rate trading staying active.
Bullish and bearish views on CME Group Inc.
The bull case on CME Group Inc. (CME), in brief: October set a monthly volume record. The bear case: October fell short of September.
Bull case
- October set a monthly volume record. Average daily volume of 30 million contracts was up 15% from October 2025 (CME release, 3 November 2026). International volume rose 9% to 9 million contracts a day, and Asia-Pacific rose 15% to 2.3 million.
- Treasury trading led the growth. US Treasury futures and options rose 48% to 9.2 million contracts a day in October, and interest rate products as a whole rose 28% to 14.8 million (CME release, 3 November 2026). BrokerTec, CME's Treasury trading platform, rose 50% to $120 billion in average daily notional value.
- Volume has already shown up in revenue. Third-quarter revenue was $1,737.3 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.02 (CME 8-K, 21 October 2026). Benzinga reported that this beat estimates of $2.98 and $1.711 billion.
- Analyst targets rose after the results. Autonomous Research raised its target to $321 from $311 on 30 October 2026. Goldman Sachs raised its target to $271 from $254 on 23 October 2026. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, which rates the shares Outperform, raised its target to $330 from $325 on 22 October 2026 (CNN analyst feed), and adjusted it again on 10 November 2026 (company news headline).
- New products keep arriving. CME set a new volume record in lean hog futures and options on 11 November 2026 (company news). Reuters reported on 7 May 2026 that CME planned a physically backed uranium futures contract, and Bloomberg reported on 11 November 2026 that CME is moving ahead on physical uranium contracts.
- The regular dividend is higher. CME declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $1.30 a share on 5 November 2026, payable 30 December 2026 to holders of record on 11 December 2026, against $1.25 declared on 6 November 2025.
Bear case
- October fell short of September. Average daily volume of 30 million contracts compares with 31.8 million in September (CME releases, 2 October 2026 and 3 November 2026). Growth from a year earlier slowed to 15% from 22%.
- Growth was narrow outside rates. Energy rose 1% to 2.7 million contracts a day and agricultural products rose 7% to 2.1 million in October (CME release, 3 November 2026). Chief executive Terry Duffy cited double-digit growth across all six asset classes for the third quarter (21 October 2026).
- Crypto volume kept shrinking. Cryptocurrency average daily volume fell to 145,000 contracts in October, from 174,000 in September and 279,800 in the first half of 2026 (CME releases, 2 October 2026 and 3 November 2026). Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap futures launched on 20 October 2026 and did not reverse the decline.
- Insiders keep selling. SEC Form 4 filings show chief commercial officer Julie Winkler sold 10,079 Class A shares at a $305.15 weighted average on 2 November 2026. Director Howard Siegel's trust sold 2,000 shares at $303.00 the same day, and director Daniel Kaye sold 532 shares at $304.17 on 9 November 2026. Chief information officer Sunil Cutinho sold 5,000 shares at $298.70 on 27 October 2026.
- Expenses are rising with revenue. Third-quarter adjusted expenses were $531.8 million against $486.6 million a year earlier (CME 8-K, 21 October 2026). Expense growth of 9% trailed revenue growth of 13%, but a volume slowdown would narrow that gap quickly.
- Some targets sit below the price. Goldman Sachs's $271 target (23 October 2026) is well under the 12 November 2026 close of $315.50.
Price setup
The shares closed at $315.50 on 12 November 2026 and $315.87 on 11 November 2026, after closing at $304.52 on 9 November 2026. The last close is 4.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $329.16 from 3 March 2026. The 3-month change is 17.5%.
The 50-day moving average is $285.21 and the 200-day moving average is $278.78, both as of the 12 November 2026 close. The shares trade well above both, so the rally has outrun its recent averages. The 52-week closing low was $218.58 on 29 June 2026.
Insider sales on 22 October 2026, 27 October 2026, 2 November 2026 and 9 November 2026 came at prices from $298.70 to $305.15, below today's close. The next earnings report is estimated for early February 2027, so monthly volume releases are the main data inside the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- 11 December 2026: Record date for the $1.30 fourth-quarter dividend. Confirms the dividend increase from $1.25 in the fourth quarter of 2025; payment follows on 30 December 2026.
- ~2 December 2026 (est.): November 2026 monthly volume release. Shows whether average daily volume stays near October's 30 million contracts and whether crypto volume recovers from 145,000.
- ~3 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report. Shows whether fourth-quarter revenue and costs stayed near third-quarter levels of $1.737 billion in revenue and $531.8 million in adjusted expenses.
What would change the view
A daily close below $264.48, under the 200-day moving average, which would erase the rally that followed the September and third-quarter volume records. Monthly average daily volume under the 26.3 million contracts of October 2025 would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Record volume reverses if market volatility falls, lowering revenue. Confirmed by: monthly average daily volume under the 26.3 million contracts of October 2025.
- Growth depends too heavily on Treasury and interest rate trading. Confirmed by: US Treasury futures and options volume falling well below October's 9.2 million contracts a day while energy and agricultural growth stays in single digits.
- Expenses keep growing as fast as revenue, limiting earnings leverage. Confirmed by: adjusted expenses above $531.8 million (the third-quarter 2026 level) with flat or lower revenue in the fourth-quarter 2026 report.
- Cryptocurrency volume keeps declining despite new listings. Confirmed by: November crypto average daily volume below October's 145,000 contracts.
- Regulators block further CME product initiatives after the 24/7 crude oil stay. Confirmed by: a new CFTC stay or CME withdrawal of another announced contract filing.
- Insider selling continues into strength. Confirmed by: further SEC Form 4 open-market sales by CME officers or directors after the sale reported for 9 November 2026.
What it trades with
CME's revenue follows trading activity in interest rates, energy, equity indexes and agriculture. The shares tend to respond to rate volatility and Federal Reserve uncertainty more than to the wider equity market. A calm rate market would reduce Treasury volume, which drove October's growth. Crypto volume is a small part of the total. Its decline since the first half of 2026 bears more on new-product credibility than on revenue.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- October 2026 average daily volume was 30 million contracts, an October high, up 15% from 26.3 million in October 2025. CME Group volume release · as of
- October 2026 interest rate volume rose 28% to 14.8 million contracts a day; US Treasury futures and options rose 48% to 9.2 million. CME Group volume release · as of
- October 2026 cryptocurrency average daily volume was 145,000 contracts, against 174,000 in September and 279,800 in the first half of 2026. CME Group volume releases, 2 October 2026 and 3 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1,737.3 million versus $1,537.6 million a year earlier; adjusted diluted EPS $3.02; adjusted expenses $531.8 million versus $486.6 million. CME Group 8-K, third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Director Daniel Kaye sold 532 shares at $304.17 on the open market. SEC Form 4 · as of
- Chief commercial officer Julie Winkler sold 10,079 Class A shares at a $305.15 weighted average. SEC Form 4 · as of
- Autonomous Research raised its CME price target to $321 from $311. Autonomous Research note · as of
- CME declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $1.30 a share, payable 30 December 2026 to holders of record on 11 December 2026. CME Group dividend release · as of
Sources
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