AMP · Ameriprise Financial
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $470
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Results, 29 October 2026: Ameriprise reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $12.07 against a $11.70 estimate and sales of $5.117 billion against $5.047 billion, and the shares closed at $518.3 on 9 November 2026 versus $492.85 on 27 October 2026.
Price against the kill line
10.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $470.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 7.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $470, which would take the shares below the 200-day average and the late-September low area and show the retention concern winning. A fourth-quarter report showing a falling advisor count alongside weaker total client net flows would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Net income, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,126
- Net income, four quarters ($M)
- 4,162
- Shareholders' equity ($M)
- 5,110
- Price to earnings (×)
- 10.8
- Price to book value (×)
- 8.8
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 5,191
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.1
- Market value ($M)
- 45,093
Ameriprise Financial is a bank: net cash, enterprise value and free cash flow are not shown, because a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
All filed numbers
What Ameriprise Financial reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 5,191 | +6.1 | 28.9 |
| first filed | 5,013 | +11.6 | 30.2 |
| first filed | 4,886 | +9.0 | 24.9 |
| first filed | 5,047 | +8.6 | 27.3 |
| first filed | 4,893 | +7.3 | 26.1 |
| first filed | 4,490 | +2.2 | 32.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 1,427 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 4,162 | 1,126 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −6.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 7,485 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 152 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 10,067 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 5,110 |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
| Market value ($M) | 45,093 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 10.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 8.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.4 days of average trading to cover, +0.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $65.9M |
The thesis
Ameriprise Financial is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter earnings rose 21.7% from a year earlier, the Huntington Bank advisors arrive in the fourth quarter, and the shares sit 10.3% below their August high. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 28 January 2027, settles whether advisor retention and client asset gathering keep pace with earnings.
Ameriprise reported third-quarter adjusted operating earnings per share of $12.07 on 29 October 2026, according to Earnings Whispers, which put the consensus at $11.60. Benzinga reported sales of $5.117 billion against $5.047 billion expected. The shares closed at $513.48 on 12 November 2026, down 9.5% over three months, so the market is pricing a retention and flow concern despite the earnings beat.
Bullish and bearish views on Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
The bull case on Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP), in brief: Earnings beat on both lines. The bear case: retention is the open question.
Bull case
- Earnings beat on both lines. Adjusted operating earnings per share of $12.07 were up 21.7% from a year earlier, per Earnings Whispers on 29 October 2026. Benzinga reported sales of $5.117 billion, above the $5.047 billion estimate.
- Client flows excluding Comerica were positive. Earnings Whispers reported client net inflows excluding the departed Comerica Bank program of $5.3 billion, up 56%, in the third quarter reported on 29 October 2026. Wrap inflows excluding Comerica rose 38% to $6.6 billion in the same report.
- Advisor productivity keeps rising. Revenue per advisor reached $1.2 million, up 13%, and the company recruited 79 experienced advisors in the quarter, per Earnings Whispers on 29 October 2026.
- Huntington adds assets from the fourth quarter. Earnings Whispers reported that the Huntington Bank transition closed on 19 October 2026, bringing about 260 advisors and nearly $28 billion of client assets. AmeriServ Financial announced on 22 October 2026 that it is moving investment services to Ameriprise's Financial Institutions Group.
- Capital return continues. The board authorized an additional $5.5 billion of share repurchases through 30 September 2028, per the company's 29 September 2026 press release.
- Two post-report targets sit at or above the price. Evercore ISI (In-Line) set a $568 target and Goldman Sachs moved its target to $525 from $524, both on 30 October 2026, per company-news listings of analyst actions.
Bear case
- Retention is the open question. BofA Securities downgraded Ameriprise to Underperform on 19 October 2026, ahead of the quarterly report, arguing that advisor departures and retention spending weigh on organic growth, per Benzinga. The fourth-quarter advisor count is the first full test after the Comerica exit.
- Asset Management keeps losing assets. Panabee's summary of the 10-Q filed 30 October 2026 reports Asset Management net outflows of $10.8 billion for the nine months to 30 September 2026. Second-quarter outflows were $6.5 billion, per the 23 July 2026 earnings call.
- The Comerica exit weighed on reported flows. Management guided on 23 July 2026 to about $19 billion of client assets leaving with the Comerica conversion by the end of the third quarter. Earnings Whispers puts client cash at $81 billion on 29 October 2026, down 5% from a year earlier.
- A target cut followed the beat. Evercore ISI lowered its target to $568 on 30 October 2026, the day after the report, per company-news listings.
- Cash-sweep litigation remains open. Class actions allege below-market rates on swept client cash, including one in Minnesota federal court, unresolved as of August 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $513.48 on 12 November 2026, against a 52-week intraday high of $572.56 on 14 August 2026. The close is 10.3% below that high and 9.5% lower than three months earlier, per adjusted daily closes. The 52-week closing low was $430.40 on 6 April 2026.
The 50-day average of the adjusted closes was $510.42 and the 200-day average was $490.07 as of 12 November 2026. The shares closed above both. They rose from $501.49 on 6 November 2026 to $518.30 on 9 November 2026, the first session after the report week's analyst actions, and have held between $513 and $521 in the three sessions since.
The price reflects a company with growing earnings and a retention debate: the shares sit well below their August high even though third-quarter earnings per share rose 21.7% from a year earlier, per Earnings Whispers. No Form 4 insider transactions are listed in the company's recent SEC filings, which show only the 10-Q filed 30 October 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~9 December 2026 (est.): Federal Reserve rate decision. The short-term rate path sets the spread earned on client cash and the bank book.
- ~28 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether total client net flows and advisor count recover after the Comerica exit and the Huntington transition.
What would change the view
A daily close below $470, which would take the shares below the 200-day average and the late-September low area and show the retention concern winning. A fourth-quarter report showing a falling advisor count alongside weaker total client net flows would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Advisor departures and higher retention spending weigh on organic growth, as BofA argued in its 19 October 2026 downgrade. Confirmed by: a falling advisor count or higher retention costs reported with the fourth-quarter results.
- Asset Management outflows continue to offset wealth-management gains. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter Asset Management net outflows at or above the $6.5 billion reported for the second quarter.
- The Huntington assets do not lift total client net flows as expected. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter total client net flows that stay below the $5.3 billion of third-quarter inflows excluding Comerica.
- The shares fall back with financial stocks and equity markets, which drive asset-based fees. Confirmed by: a broad decline in wealth-management peers and the S&P 500 before the fourth-quarter report.
- Analyst targets drift toward or below the share price. Confirmed by: further target cuts after the 30 October 2026 Evercore reduction.
What it trades with
Ameriprise's revenue includes asset-based fees, so the shares move with equity-market levels and with wealth-management peers. Short-term interest rates affect earnings on client cash and the bank book. Trading in the shares follows financial-sector sentiment and analyst reactions to advisor-retention news.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter adjusted operating earnings per share were $12.07, up 21.7% from a year earlier; client net inflows excluding Comerica were $5.3 billion, up 56%. Earnings Whispers, third-quarter 2026 report · as of
- Third-quarter sales were $5.117 billion against a $5.047 billion estimate. Benzinga earnings headline · as of
- Revenue per advisor rose 13% to $1.2 million and 79 experienced advisors were recruited in the third quarter; client cash was $81 billion, down 5% from a year earlier. Earnings Whispers, third-quarter 2026 report · as of
- Asset Management net outflows were $10.8 billion for the nine months to 30 September 2026. Panabee summary of the third-quarter 2026 10-Q · as of
- Evercore ISI (In-Line) lowered its price target to $568; Goldman Sachs moved its target to $525 from $524. Company-news listings of analyst actions · as of
- The Huntington Bank transition closed, bringing about 260 advisors and nearly $28 billion of client assets. Earnings Whispers, third-quarter 2026 report · as of
- BofA Securities downgraded Ameriprise to Underperform, citing advisor retention. Benzinga analyst-action report · as of
- The board authorized an additional $5.5 billion share repurchase through 30 September 2028. Ameriprise press release · as of
Sources
- AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc · earningswhispers.com ·
- Ameriprise Earnings: Wealth Management Growth Offsets $11 Billion Asset Management Outflows · panabee.com ·
- AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Ameriprise Financial Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results · s205.q4cdn.com
Related · shared themes
SLDE
Slide Insurance Holdings
Slide Insurance is earning well ahead of plan on Florida homeowners policies and paying a $1.50 special dividend after raising 2026 net…
CME
CME Group
CME Group is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: record October volume of 30 million contracts a day followed record…
FBIZ
First Business Financial Services
First Business Financial Services is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on a 3.80% third-quarter margin and record…
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
GCM Grosvenor is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter fee-related earnings rose 15% and fundraising…