AMPL · Amplitude
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $19.96
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $19.96, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 37.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $19.96, over the $18.85 intraday 52-week high of 5 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a fourth-quarter report with dollar-based net retention above 103% and revenue above the $113.2 million top of guidance.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 111
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +24.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 67.2
- Operating margin (%)
- −22.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 31.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 141
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 5.2
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 1.4
All filed numbers
What Amplitude reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 111 | +24.9 | 67.2 | −22.3 |
| first filed | 101 | +21.2 | 68.5 | −34.9 |
| first filed | 93.5 | +16.9 | 73.0 | — |
| first filed | 91.4 | +17.0 | 74.6 | — |
| first filed | 88.6 | +17.7 | 73.9 | −29.0 |
| first filed | 83.3 | +13.6 | 72.6 | −32.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −23.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −100 | −24.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −5.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 33.9 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 31.6 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 141 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 141 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +26.2% on a year | 166 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +26.8% on a year | 497 |
| Receivables ($M) | 41.2 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 128 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,185 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 2,044 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 5.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 17.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.0 days of average trading to cover, +3.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $9.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $10.9M |
The thesis
Amplitude's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. The third-quarter report on 4 November 2026 beat revenue guidance and raised the 2026 outlook. Dollar-based net retention stayed at 103%, gross margin fell, and the shares closed lower the next day. The fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027, settles whether faster growth starts to show up in retention.
The case before the report had two tests: revenue above the $105.6 million guidance floor, and net retention above 103%. Revenue passed easily at $110.6 million. Retention did not move: the company's release put quarterly dollar-based net retention at 103% for the second quarter running, with pro forma retention at 105%. Growth is coming from new customers and the Statsig acquisition more than from existing customers spending more.
The price already reflects the beat. The shares closed at $17.21 on 11 November 2026, close to the $17.19 close of 4 November 2026 before the release, and 29.4% above the $13.30 close of 13 August 2026. The rating is Low because the report raised revenue expectations without improving retention or margins, and the 28 October 2026 customer-data incident still has no sizing from Amplitude.
Bullish and bearish views on Amplitude, Inc.
The bull case on Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL), in brief: growth accelerated to 25%. The bear case: retention did not improve.
Bull case
- Growth accelerated to 25%. Third-quarter revenue was $110.6 million, up 25% year over year, against a $107.028 million estimate (Amplitude release and Benzinga, 4 November 2026). Second-quarter growth had been 21%.
- Guidance went up again. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $415.8–418.2 million from $407.2–411.2 million on 4 November 2026. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to $110.8–113.2 million, above a $108.912 million estimate (Benzinga).
- Large customers keep growing. Customers paying $100,000 or more in annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached 855, up 31% year over year. Total ARR was $431 million, up 24% (Q3 release, 4 November 2026).
- Analysts raised targets above the price. Piper Sandler and KeyBanc raised targets to $22, Needham to $21 and BTIG to $19 on 5 November 2026. UBS raised to $22 on 6 November 2026, per Benzinga.
- Operating profit reached a record. Non-GAAP operating income was $5.7 million in the third quarter. Full-year non-GAAP earnings guidance rose to $0.07–0.09 per share from $0.06–0.08 (Q3 release, 4 November 2026).
Bear case
- Retention did not improve. Quarterly dollar-based net retention was 103% in the third quarter, the same as in the second, and 104% on a trailing twelve-month basis (Q3 release, 4 November 2026). Earnings Whispers noted on 4 November 2026 that the figure had been 106% in the first quarter.
- AI costs are compressing gross margin. Earnings Whispers reported non-GAAP gross margin of 69.6% in the third quarter against 75.9% a year earlier, citing inference costs from AI products and Statsig hosting (4 November 2026).
- Forward contracts grew more slowly. Remaining performance obligations (RPO), meaning contracted revenue not yet recognized, were $497 million, up 27%. That compares with 35% growth in the second quarter (Q3 release, 4 November 2026).
- Cash generation dropped. Free cash flow was $5.8 million in the third quarter against $23.7 million in the second. Operating cash flow was $7.1 million (Q3 release, 4 November 2026).
- The data incident remains unexplained. Coinbase said on 28 October 2026 that an incident at Amplitude exposed contact data for a small subset of its customers "among other Amplitude customers", per Decrypt. Amplitude's 4 November 2026 results release did not mention it.
- The chief executive keeps selling. SEC Form 4 filings show Spenser Skates sold 107,136 shares at $17.52 on 23 October 2026, 6,951 shares at an average $17.52 on 26 October to 28 October 2026, and 962 shares at an average $17.50 on 4 November to 5 November 2026. All sales were under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
Price setup
The shares closed at $17.19 on 4 November 2026, before the release. On 5 November 2026 they touched an intraday 52-week high of $18.85 and then closed at $16.10. They have since closed between $16.70 and $17.32, ending at $17.21 on 11 November 2026, 8.7% below that high.
The 50-day moving average was $14.99 and the 200-day $9.87 on 11 November 2026, so the price sits far above both. The 52-week closing low was $5.61 on 10 April 2026. A close back above the 5 November 2026 intraday high would show buyers paying up for the raised outlook. A move back toward the 50-day average would show the post-report gains fading.
Citigroup kept a Neutral rating with an $18 target on 6 November 2026, close to the current price. The highest targets at $22 sit above every close of the past year.
Catalysts ahead
- ~18 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results; date not yet announced by Amplitude. Shows whether dollar-based net retention rises above 103%, whether gross margin recovers from 69.6%, and whether revenue lands above the $110.8–113.2 million guide. It is also the next scheduled occasion for management to address the 28 October 2026 incident.
What would change the view
A daily close above $19.96, over the $18.85 intraday 52-week high of 5 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a fourth-quarter report with dollar-based net retention above 103% and revenue above the $113.2 million top of guidance.
What it trades with
Amplitude sells product analytics and experimentation software. Its shares respond to enterprise software spending and to sentiment toward AI application vendors, whose usage drives its event volumes. The gross-margin squeeze ties it to inference costs that the whole AI software group faces. Company-specific events dominate in the near term: further customer breach notices naming Amplitude would hit this stock alone, and the fourth-quarter retention figure is the next business datapoint that can move it apart from the software group.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue $110.6M, up 25% YoY, vs $107.028M estimate; ARR $431M (+24%); RPO $497M (+27%); 855 customers above $100K ARR (+31%). Amplitude Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1); Benzinga · as of
- Q3 2026 dollar-based net retention 103% for the quarter and 104% trailing twelve months; pro forma net retention 105%. Amplitude Q3 2026 results release · as of
- FY2026 revenue guidance raised to $415.8–418.2M from $407.2–411.2M; Q4 revenue guided to $110.8–113.2M; FY non-GAAP EPS guided to $0.07–0.09 from $0.06–0.08. Amplitude Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Q3 2026 GAAP operating loss $(24.6)M; non-GAAP operating income $5.7M; operating cash flow $7.1M; free cash flow $5.8M vs $23.7M in Q2. Amplitude Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Non-GAAP gross margin 69.6% in Q3 2026 vs 75.9% a year earlier, attributed to AI inference and Statsig hosting costs. Earnings Whispers via Finviz, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Price targets raised: Piper Sandler $22, KeyBanc $22, Needham $21, BTIG $19 (5 November 2026); UBS $22 and Citigroup $18 with Neutral rating (6 November 2026). Benzinga analyst ratings, 5 November 2026 and 6 November 2026 · as of
- CEO Spenser Skates sold 107,136 shares at $17.52 on 23 October 2026 and 962 shares at an average $17.50 on 4 November to 5 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filings, 27 October 2026 and 6 November 2026 · as of
- Coinbase said a security incident at Amplitude exposed contact data for a small subset of Coinbase customers, among other Amplitude customers; customer funds were not affected. Coinbase statement reported by Decrypt · as of
Sources
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