AMN · AMN Healthcare Services
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $42.45
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $42.45, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 10.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $42.45, about 12% above the 11 November 2026 close of $37.90, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong, as would fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $670 million top of the guide.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 717
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +13.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 31.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 7.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 327
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −487
- Price to earnings (×)
- 13.4
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.6
All filed numbers
What AMN Healthcare Services reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 717 | +13.0 | 31.9 | 7.0 |
| first filed | 673 | +2.3 | 30.6 | 4.0 |
| first filed | 1,378 | +99.9 | 26.8 | 8.5 |
| first filed | 748 | +1.8 | 26.1 | 1.1 |
| first filed | 635 | −7.7 | 29.1 | 7.5 |
| first filed | 658 | −11.1 | 29.8 | −18.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 43.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 109 | 33.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +3.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 361 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 33.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 327 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 256 |
| Debt ($M) credit line plus notes | 743 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −487 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +24.9% on a year | 7.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 418 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 775 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,466 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,954 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 9.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 13.4 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 22.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.1 days of average trading to cover, +6.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $114K |
The thesis
AMN Healthcare Services looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its third-quarter beat leaned on $59 million of strike staffing, and the fourth-quarter outlook assumes only $5 million of it, with operating margin guided between −0.1% and 0.5%. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, will show whether nurse staffing can carry the company without strikes.
The market has already priced in the reset. The shares closed at $47.42 on 5 November 2026, before the release, and at $36.19 on 6 November 2026, the first session after it. They closed at $37.90 on 11 November 2026, just under MarketBeat's $39.17 consensus target dated 9 November 2026. At that price the market has absorbed the lower fourth-quarter margins but is not paying for a recovery in earnings without strike revenue.
The rating is Low because the next scheduled results are likely to arrive in the second half of February, at the far edge of a three-month window, and the guided fourth quarter describes a much smaller business than the third. Two brokers raised their targets after the report. Citizens JMP moved to $51 from $40 on 6 November 2026 and Truist to $45 from $40 on 9 November 2026, so analyst opinion leans more positive than the price.
Bullish and bearish views on AMN Healthcare Services
The bull case on AMN Healthcare Services (AMN), in brief: nurse staffing far exceeded guidance. The bear case: strike revenue largely drops away.
Bull case
- Nurse staffing far exceeded guidance. Nurse and Allied revenue was $460.0 million in the third quarter, up 27% year over year, against a guide of 9–11% growth (5 November 2026 release). Part of that gain was labor-disruption revenue, which AMN bills when it supplies replacement staff during strikes.
- Fourth-quarter revenue guide tops consensus. AMN guided to $655–670 million, against a $653.892 million consensus (Benzinga, 5 November 2026). The guided year-over-year decline compares $5 million of assumed strike revenue with $124 million a year earlier, which implies growth once strikes are excluded.
- Profit landed well above guidance. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $93.6 million, up 63% year over year. That is a 13.0% margin against a 6.5–7.0% guide (5 November 2026 release and 6 August 2026 outlook).
- Brokers raised targets after the report. Citizens JMP raised its target to $51 from $40 and kept a Market Outperform rating on 6 November 2026. Truist raised its target to $45 from $40 and kept a Buy rating on 9 November 2026 (MarketBeat).
- Debt burden keeps easing. Leverage under the credit agreement was 1.3 times at the end of the third quarter, down from 1.5 times a quarter earlier, with $750 million of debt and nothing drawn on the revolving credit line. AMN repurchased 250,685 shares for $8.4 million at an average of $33.50 (5 November 2026 release).
- Other segments fell less than guided. Physician and Leadership Solutions fell 4% against a guided 5–7% decline, and Technology and Workforce Solutions fell 9% against a guided 11–13% decline (5 November 2026 release). On the 5 November 2026 call, management said it targets year-over-year growth in locum tenens (temporary physician staffing) in 2027.
Bear case
- Strike revenue largely drops away. Labor-disruption revenue was $59 million in the third quarter, compared with $25 million in the second quarter and $12 million a year earlier. The fourth-quarter outlook assumes $5 million (5 November 2026 release).
- Margins reset sharply lower. The fourth-quarter guide calls for gross margin of 25.7–26.2%, down from 31.9% in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin falls to 5.8–6.3% from 13.0%, and operating margin is guided between −0.1% and 0.5% (5 November 2026 release).
- Cash flow turned negative. Third-quarter operating cash flow was negative $87.5 million, which AMN attributed to refunding most client deposits from earlier strike events. Cash fell to $256.0 million from $362 million at the end of the second quarter (5 November 2026 and 6 August 2026 releases).
- International nurses face a 2027 headwind. On the 5 November 2026 call, management said embassy appointments had been virtually nonexistent since the summer. It expects this to limit placements in 2027 until appointments return to normal, according to published transcripts.
- Pricing has not turned up. On the same call, management described rising demand and volume but flat bill rates in a competitive market. It added that clinicians are starting to hold out for higher pay.
- Consensus rating is Hold. MarketBeat counted four Buy, four Hold and one Sell rating on 9 November 2026, with a $39.17 average target that sits only slightly above the 11 November 2026 close of $37.90.
Price setup
The shares closed at $47.74 on 4 November 2026 and $47.42 on 5 November 2026, then fell to $36.19 on 6 November 2026 after the third-quarter release. They have since held in a narrow range, closing at $37.71 on 9 November 2026, $37.81 on 10 November 2026 and $37.90 on 11 November 2026.
The 52-week intraday high is $49.62, set on 27 October 2026, and the 11 November 2026 close is 23.6% below it. The 52-week closing low is $15.10, on 5 January 2026. Adjusted daily closes put the 50-day moving average at $38.44 and the 200-day at $29.35 as of 11 November 2026. The shares therefore sit just under the 50-day average and well above the 200-day.
Over three months the shares are up 9.9%, from a $34.49 close on 13 August 2026. The post-report drop gave back most of the October rally but left the shares above their August level.
Catalysts ahead
- ~4 December 2026 (est.): Bureau of Labor Statistics November employment report. Health-care payroll gains give a read on hospital hiring and demand for nurse staffing as strike revenue fades.
- ~8 January 2027 (est.): Bureau of Labor Statistics December employment report. A second month of health-care hiring data shows whether demand for staff is holding into the first quarter of 2027.
- ~18 February 2027 (est.): Q4 2026 report and Q1 2027 outlook. This is the first test of revenue and margins with little strike revenue, and it settles whether nurse staffing can support the price.
What would change the view
A daily close above $42.45, about 12% above the 11 November 2026 close of $37.90, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong, as would fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $670 million top of the guide.
What it trades with
AMN's reported results move with strike activity and hospital contract-labor budgets more than with the general economy. Strike revenue went from $124 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $59 million in the third quarter of 2026, and $5 million is assumed for the fourth quarter. Health-care hiring in Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll reports is the broadest public read on demand for nurse staffing. Visa processing adds a policy exposure through international nurse placements, which management flagged on the 5 November 2026 call.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $717.3M, up 13% year over year; net income was $33.4M and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.16 versus $0.39 a year earlier. AMN Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Labor-disruption revenue was $59M in Q3 2026, versus $25M in Q2 2026 and $12M in Q3 2025. AMN Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Q4 2026 outlook: revenue $655-670M, gross margin 25.7-26.2%, adjusted EBITDA margin 5.8-6.3%, with $5M of labor-disruption revenue assumed versus $124M in Q4 2025. AMN Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Q3 2026 segment revenue: Nurse and Allied $460.0M, up 27%; Physician and Leadership $171.2M, down 4%; Technology and Workforce $86.1M, down 9%. AMN Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Q3 2026 gross margin was 31.9% and adjusted EBITDA was $93.6M, up 63% year over year, a 13.0% margin. AMN Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Q3 2026 quarter-end cash was $256.0M against $750M of total debt, leverage was 1.3x and operating cash flow was negative $87.5M after client-deposit refunds. AMN Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Citizens JMP raised its AMN price target to $51 from $40 and kept a Market Outperform rating. MarketBeat analyst alert, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Truist raised its AMN price target to $45 from $40 and kept a Buy rating; consensus was Hold (4 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell) with a $39.17 average target. MarketBeat analyst alert, 9 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR ·
- AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE:AMN) Stock Gets Price Target Increase from Truist Financial · marketbeat.com ·
- AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE:AMN) Stock Price Expected to Rise, Citizens Jmp Analyst Says · marketbeat.com ·
- AMN Healthcare Services Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · benzinga.com
- AMN Healthcare Services (AMN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript and Summary · gloom.sh
- SEC EDGAR
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