LQDA · Liquidia

The thesis

Liquidia Corporation's YUTREPIA sales rose 31% to $222.7 million in the third quarter of 2026, and October shipments set a record, so the business looks able to keep growing on pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) alone. The rating is Medium: the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months. The preliminary fourth-quarter sales figure, which management plans to give in early January 2027, settles whether sales hold once the drug stops being promoted for pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease (PH-ILD).

The company's 8-K of 10 November 2026 reported total revenue of $225.3 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $140.5 million. It also reported a net loss of $236.3 million, or $2.64 a share, after a one-time $389.7 million litigation settlement charge. Free cash flow over the four quarters to 30 September 2026 was $291 million, per the 10-Q filed 10 November 2026.

The shares have repriced the report. They closed at $44.40 on 6 November 2026, the last session before it, and at $57.41 on 13 November 2026. That close is still 38.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $93.61 set on 11 August 2026. The price reflects a business that keeps its PAH sales and has paid off the settlement; it does not reflect a return to the expectations held before the 30 September 2026 Delaware patent ruling.

Bullish and bearish views on Liquidia Corporation

The bull case on Liquidia Corporation (LQDA), in brief: third-quarter sales confirmed and still rising. The bear case: the settlement still restricts PH-ILD sales.

Bull case

• Third-quarter sales confirmed and still rising. YUTREPIA net product sales were $222.7 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 31% from the second quarter, and nine-month product sales were $523.0 million (Liquidia 8-K, 10 November 2026). Paid patient demand, which excludes voucher and access programs, was $212.2 million.
• PH-ILD exposure smaller than feared. More than 70% of September referrals included a PAH diagnosis, up from more than 60% since launch (Liquidia 8-K, 10 November 2026). Management said on the 10 November 2026 call that the settlement does not require existing PH-ILD patients to switch therapy.
• October shipments set a record. Total patient shipments in October 2026 were the highest monthly level since launch, and October's daily referral rate was above 75% of the third-quarter daily average (Liquidia 8-K, 10 November 2026).
• Cash covers the settlement. Cash was $396.1 million on 30 September 2026, up $111.9 million in the quarter, against $380.7 million payable through April 2027 (Liquidia 8-K and call, 10 November 2026). The company expects to fund the payments from cash and ongoing sales.
• Four brokers back the report. BTIG raised its target to $87, Raymond James to $77 and Needham to $66 on 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026, each keeping a Buy rating, and HC Wainwright assumed coverage at Buy with a $76 target on 13 November 2026 (company news).

Bear case

• The settlement still restricts PH-ILD sales. United Therapeutics' 8-K of 13 October 2026 says Liquidia must tell practitioners that PH-ILD patients should move to another therapy and ask payers to deny PH-ILD prior authorizations. Liquidia has filed a Prior Approval Supplement to remove PH-ILD from the label, and the FDA has given no review date (Liquidia 8-K, 10 November 2026).
• No guidance for the quarter that matters. Liquidia gave no fourth-quarter or 2027 revenue outlook on 10 November 2026. Management said it wants more data first and plans to say more in early January.
• Settlement drains most of the cash. The $380.7 million of payments is close to the $396.1 million cash balance of 30 September 2026. A net $175 million falls due within 30 business days of 13 October 2026 (United Therapeutics 8-K, 13 October 2026).
• Negative book value after the charge. Shareholders' equity was negative $25 million on 30 September 2026 (10-Q, filed 10 November 2026), so earnings and book-value multiples are not meaningful until the charge rolls off.
• One product carries the company. YUTREPIA made up $222.7 million of $225.3 million total revenue in the third quarter. The $2.6 million of service revenue ends because the Sandoz promotion agreement was terminated in October 2026 (Liquidia 8-K, 10 November 2026).
• The rival is still growing. United Therapeutics reported third-quarter Tyvaso DPI revenue up 13% to $378.5 million on 4 November 2026, while nebulized Tyvaso fell 12% to $125.3 million.
• Officers sold into the recovery. SEC Form 4 filings show six officers, including the CFO, sold shares at $28.48 on 12 October 2026, and the Chief Accounting Officer and Chief Business Officer sold at $43.19 on 26 October 2026, all under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans.

Price setup

The shares closed at $44.40 on 6 November 2026, then $47.87 on 9 November 2026, $51.40 on 10 November 2026, $55.21 on 11 November 2026, $58.12 on 12 November 2026 and $57.41 on 13 November 2026. The 13 November 2026 close sits above the 50-day moving average of $48.96 and the 200-day moving average of $54.71, both as of that day. The 3-month change is −26.1%, measured from the $77.70 close of 17 August 2026.

The range that matters runs from the 52-week closing low of $25.91 on 6 October 2026, set after the Delaware ruling, to the August high of $93.61. The $44.40 pre-report close marks where the shares stood before the third-quarter numbers.

A close back under the 200-day average would show the post-report gain fading. A move toward the August high would need evidence that fourth-quarter sales grew despite the PH-ILD restrictions. Across US stocks, no reliable effect has been found so far for returns in the three months after a large one-day move.

Catalysts ahead

• 17 November 2026: CEO and CFO fireside chat at the 2026 Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference. The first public remarks after the report can update fourth-quarter referral and shipment trends and the PH-ILD wind-down.
• ~24 November 2026 (est.): Net $175 million initial settlement payment to United Therapeutics, due within 30 business days of 13 October 2026. It is the largest single payment and draws on the $396.1 million cash balance; the covered cases are dismissed after payment.
• ~8 January 2027 (est.): Early-January update on preliminary fourth-quarter 2026 sales and the 2027 outlook, which management said it plans to give. The fourth quarter is the first full quarter without PH-ILD promotion, so it shows whether YUTREPIA sales hold at or above the third quarter's $222.7 million.
• No date disclosed: FDA action on the Prior Approval Supplement removing PH-ILD from the YUTREPIA label. Approval sets when PH-ILD sales must stop, which fixes the size and timing of the revenue Liquidia gives up.
• ~1 February 2027 (est.): Deadline for the first $72.7 million settlement installment, per United Therapeutics' 8-K. It tests whether cash and product income cover the payments without new financing.

What would change the view

A daily close below $44, under the $44.40 close of 6 November 2026 before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-earnings gain. Preliminary fourth-quarter 2026 YUTREPIA net product sales below the third quarter's $222.7 million would also break the case.

The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:

• Removing PH-ILD from the label cuts YUTREPIA sales by more than the October data suggest. Confirmed by: preliminary fourth-quarter 2026 YUTREPIA net product sales below the third quarter's $222.7 million, or a disclosure that payers are denying PH-ILD reauthorizations for existing patients.
• Settlement payments force Liquidia to raise financing on poor terms. Confirmed by: a share offering or debt financing announced before the first $72.7 million installment falls due by 1 February 2027.
• Tyvaso regains PH-ILD patients as Liquidia withdraws from that market. Confirmed by: United Therapeutics' next quarterly report showing total Tyvaso revenue above the $503.8 million of the third quarter of 2026 while YUTREPIA sales fall.
• YUTREPIA remains the only meaningful revenue source once service revenue ends. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 results showing YUTREPIA as effectively all revenue with no pipeline program producing revenue or partnership income.
• The FDA label change comes sooner than expected and stops PH-ILD sales abruptly. Confirmed by: an FDA approval of the PH-ILD removal supplement announced before the early-January sales update.

What it trades with

Liquidia's shares trade on their own sales data and on United Therapeutics' Tyvaso disclosures. Tyvaso growth in PH-ILD mirrors the patients YUTREPIA must give up, so United Therapeutics' next quarterly report shows how many PH-ILD patients actually move. RBC said on 22 October 2026 that Tyvaso's outlook faces near-term pressure after the settlement, which frames the two companies as sharing one patient pool.

With the litigation settled and YUTREPIA almost all of revenue, broad biotech sector moves matter less than the early-January sales update and the timing of the FDA's label decision.