Stocks · Theme
Binary-catalyst biotech stocks · 61 research notes
61 Binary-catalyst biotech stocks with a dated research note: thesis, kill line and next catalyst.
Earlier themeNot among the research's active themes (last active 21 September 2026). Each stock's note below is dated on its own.
All 61 have a dated research note with a published kill line: the note's own test, stated in advance, of what would prove it wrong: a price level, a business fact, or both.
All stocksIRONDisc MedicineMedium Disc Medicine's shares are modestly favoured to beat the S&P 500 over three months because bitopertin passed its Phase 3 APOLLO trial on 19 October 2026, answering the FDA's February rejection. ASH pipeline data from 12 December 2026 and…MANEVeradermicsMedium Veradermics' hair-loss pill VDPHL01 has finished its male trials with clean 12-month safety and cash of $798.4M guided into 2030. The case now turns on when the company sets a new drug application date, with its 19 November 2026 Jefferies…SMMTSummit TherapeuticsMedium Summit Therapeutics' case rests on FDA approval of ivonescimab in EGFR-mutant lung cancer by the 14 November 2026 goal date. The agency's reading of a primary survival result with p=0.057 settles it, and the shares closed at $15.07 on 12…ZLABZai LabMedium Zai Lab's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on zoci, its DLL3 cancer drug with an 81.8% first-line response rate; a global first-line Phase 3 start announced by 31 December 2026 settles it.ZVRAZevra TherapeuticsMedium Zevra Therapeutics is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: MIPLYFFA sold $34.0 million in the third quarter of 2026 and the company is profitable; the EMA re-examination of arimoclomol, guided to the fourth quarter,…KODKodiak SciencesLow Kodiak Sciences' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 after a 161.8% three-month run that prices in the DAYBREAK win while share sales have begun. The PEAK topline, guided for December 2026, settles it.SLSSELLAS Life Sciences GroupLow SELLAS Life Sciences is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its value rests on one Phase 3 leukemia trial, REGAL, whose topline survival result the company said on 12 November 2026 it expects this month, and the shares closed…ABVXAbivax SAMedium Abivax's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months because the company guides its US obefazimod ulcerative colitis marketing application to the fourth quarter of 2026; a filing by 31 December 2026 settles it.BHVNBiohavenMedium Biohaven Ltd. is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: the SK Biopharmaceuticals licence has cleared US antitrust, and receipt of its $350 million payment plus the second-half 2026 RISE3 epilepsy readout…CLYMClimb BioMedium Climb Bio's budoprutug showed a clear antibody effect in membranous nephropathy and the third-quarter report kept funding into the second half of 2028; the December 2026 ASH immune thrombocytopenia data test whether the drug works beyond…CMPSCOMPASS PathwaysMedium Compass Pathways is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: its COMP360 psilocybin filing was completed on 9 November 2026 under a one-to-two-month voucher review target, and FDA acceptance and an action date decide…CORTCorcept TherapeuticsMedium Corcept Therapeutics' Lifyorli launch is compounding ($91.4 million in Q3 2026, up from $47.6 million in Q2), yet the shares sit near their 200-day average on an unchanged $1.1–$1.2 billion revenue guide; the 17 December 2026 FDA decision…ELVNEnliven TherapeuticsMedium Enliven Therapeutics is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: $884.4 million in cash and FDA alignment fund ENABLE-2, its pivotal leukemia trial, and a disclosed first patient before year-end 2026 would…IMVTImmunovantMedium Immunovant's 9 November 2026 rheumatoid arthritis win at the 600 mg dose of IMVT-1402 makes the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months; FDA feedback on a registrational path, guided for late 2026 or…LRMRLarimar TherapeuticsMedium Larimar Therapeutics is modestly more likely than not to lead the S&P 500 over three months: it finished its nomlabofusp filing on 9 November 2026 and seven insiders bought shares on 11 November 2026 and 12 November 2026. The FDA's filing…MBXMBX BiosciencesMedium MBX Biosciences is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: $481.6 million of cash funds canvuparatide into 2029, and the 12-week MBX-4291 obesity data guided for the fourth quarter of 2026 settle the second…MIRMMirum PharmaceuticalsMedium Mirum Pharmaceuticals is modestly more likely than not to lead the S&P 500 over three months: both Phase 3 hepatitis delta studies are positive and LIVMARLI sales are growing. The report expected around 25 February 2027 tests the $715–720…QUITAchieve Life SciencesMedium AchieveRx (formerly Achieve Life Sciences) is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months if its cytisinicline resubmission to the FDA lands in the fourth quarter of 2026; the refiling, due by about 31 December…RZLTRezoluteMedium Rezolute's ersodetug rests on the tumor hyperinsulinism upLIFT study, with topline guided to mid-December 2026; the final responder rate against the 7-of-8 interim settles it, and a $400 million registration filed 5 November 2026 raises…VIRVir BiotechnologyMedium Vir Biotechnology's hepatitis delta regimen met its pivotal ECLIPSE 1 endpoint on 8 November 2026 (44% response versus 0%), so the shares lean toward beating the S&P 500 over three months despite the new stock offering. The ECLIPSE 2 and 3…ZBIOZenas BioPharmaMedium Zenas BioPharma is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months; the SunStone Phase 2 lupus result for obexelimab, guided for the fourth quarter of 2026, settles whether the drug reaches beyond IgG4-RD.ABSIAbsciLow Absci Corporation's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because the price still assumes a hair-loss win for ABS-201; the 13-week interim data guided for December 2026 settle it.AGIOAgios PharmaceuticalsLow Agios Pharmaceuticals' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 until the FDA rules on mitapivat in sickle cell disease by 1 February 2027; thalassemia sales are growing, but new prescriptions are slowing and a safety program is possible.ALMSAlumisLow Alumis, a one-drug psoriasis company, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: cash fell to $431.3 million and lupus has no funded path. The envudeucitinib NDA filing guided for the quarter ending 31 December 2026 settles it.ALVOAlvotechLow Alvotech's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because cash fell to $61.5 million at 30 September 2026 and 2026 revenue is now guided to the low end. FDA decisions on its Simponi and Eylea biosimilars, AVT05 and AVT06, expected in Q4…AQSTAquestive TherapeuticsLow Aquestive Therapeutics' shares lean toward lagging the S&P 500 over three months: the FDA decision on its needle-free epinephrine film Anaphylm falls on 16 March 2027, after the window, and third-quarter revenue of $7.6 million missed…AVTXAvalo TherapeuticsLow Avalo Therapeutics' abdakibart keeps a funded Phase 3 plan in hidradenitis suppurativa, but the shares sit near $7 after AbbVie's rival data; FDA feedback on the Phase 3 design, guided for H2 2026, settles the case.AVXLAnavex Life SciencesLow Anavex Life Sciences is more likely to lag the S&P 500: the shares hit a 52-week closing low of $1.06 on 11 November 2026 after three directors quit. The FDA's Rett pediatric meeting and the fiscal year-end report settle whether the slide…BCAXBicara TherapeuticsLow Bicara Therapeutics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because Genmab's rival head-and-neck drug won a Phase 3 trial and Bicara's own randomized data arrive only in mid-2027. Full FORTIFI-HN01 enrollment and $442.3 million of cash,…BIOABioAge LabsLow BioAge Labs' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it until the QUELL-CV hsCRP topline for BGE-102, guided to the fourth quarter of 2026, shows whether Phase 1 biomarker results hold against placebo.CADLCandel TherapeuticsLow Candel Therapeutics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: on 12 November 2026 the company pushed its prostate-cancer BLA from the fourth quarter of 2026 to mid-2027, and a filing earlier than that would show the…CLDXCelldex TherapeuticsLow Celldex Therapeutics has two positive Phase 3 urticaria trials and cash guided through 2028, yet its shares closed at $30.15 on 11 November 2026, below both moving averages, and look more likely to lag the S&P 500. The late-2026 atopic…CRVSCorvus PharmaceuticalsLow Corvus Pharmaceuticals' soquelitinib shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the Angel eczema readout slipped to March 2027, so the main test sits past the window. $202.9 million of cash funds trials into the second…DNTHDianthus TherapeuticsLow Dianthus Therapeutics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over three months, because the case rests on one binary event: the Phase 2 MoMeNtum readout of claseprubart in multifocal motor neuropathy, guided to December…DYNDyne TherapeuticsLow Dyne Therapeutics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the case rests on the FDA's 21 January 2027 decision on zeleciment rostudirsen in Duchenne and the Q1 2027 myotonic dystrophy topline, with cash funded into Q2…EPRXEupraxia PharmaceuticalsLow Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals' once-a-year EoE steroid injection, EP-104GI, is priced on open-label data from 14 patients, and the shares have rallied into a 13 November 2026 Analyst Day. The December 2026 placebo-controlled Phase 2b interim…ERASErascaLow Erasca's pan-RAS drug ERAS-0015 faces a binary test in the 20 November 2026 oral presentation of more pancreatic cancer patients; with the Revolution Medicines patent dispute open, the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it.GHRSGH ResearchLow GH Research's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they trade just above the $18.00 April 2026 offering price with no dated pivotal-trial start, and the third-quarter report, estimated for 20 November 2026, is the…HELPCybinLow Helus Pharma (formerly Cybin) is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the shares rest on one Phase 3 depression trial, APPROACH, guided to report in the fourth quarter of 2026, and a miss or a slip past 31 December 2026…IKTInhibikase TherapeuticsLow Inhibikase Therapeutics' IKT-001 for pulmonary arterial hypertension is funded, with $193.3M cash on 30 September 2026, but dilution and warrant-dependent runway weigh on shares at $1.55; 2027 interim safety data is next.IMRXImmuneeringLow Immuneering's atebimetinib is still a single-arm pancreatic-cancer story, and the randomized MAPKeeper 301 trial, guided to mid-2028, settles it. The third-quarter report moved cash runway to the fourth quarter of 2028, from 2029.IVAInventivaLow Inventiva's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: funding is conditional and the lanifibranor MASH result is a coin flip on a single asset. The undated fourth-quarter 2026 NATiV3 topline settles the call.KYMRKymera TherapeuticsLow Kymera Therapeutics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because the price already reflects a clear win for oral eczema drug KT-621; the Phase 2b BROADEN2 topline, guided by year-end 2026, settles whether efficacy nears Dupixent's.MESOMesoblastLow Mesoblast's cell therapy Ryoncil grew 44% from a year earlier but fell to US$28 million from US$36 million in June, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the report for the December 2026 quarter, due around January 2027,…MGNXMacroGenicsLow MacroGenics' B7-H3 cancer drug MGC026 showed head-and-neck responses, but shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: third-quarter revenue fell to $18.7 million and the next MGC026 data is not due until mid-2027.MNPRMonopar TherapeuticsLow Monopar Therapeutics' Wilson disease drug ALXN1840 keeps an open FDA path, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months. Completion of the New Drug Application, guided on 12 November 2026 to within several weeks, and…OBIOOrchestra BioMed HoldingsLow Orchestra BioMed is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the BACKBEAT hypertension data that decide the case are planned for the Heart Rhythm 2027 meeting in May 2027, after that window, and the shares are up 39.5% in three…ORICOric PharmaceuticalsLow Oric Pharmaceuticals' enozertinib has a stated Phase 3 path, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $8.50 on 12 November 2026, and third-quarter cash and dilution decide whether they recover.QUREuniQureLow uniQure's Huntington's gene therapy AMT-130 cleared the FDA filing stage with priority review and a 1 May 2027 decision date, yet the shares still closed at $22.71 on 10 November 2026; the advisory committee decides whether the weakened…RAPPRapport TherapeuticsLow Rapport Therapeutics' RAP-219 beat placebo in bipolar mania by 3.1 points, short of management's 4-point bar, but cash is guided through 2029; fourth-quarter 2026 seizure safety data decide whether tolerability concerns spread.RCKTRocket PharmaceuticalsLow Rocket Pharmaceuticals' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the Danon gene therapy trial reports no efficacy until mid-2028, and first KRESLADI patient onboarding, guided for the fourth quarter of 2026, is the next…SANASana BiotechnologyLow Sana Biotechnology's type 1 diabetes case rests on one patient's result, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; the SC451 IND filing and trial start, guided "as early as this year" on 5 November 2026, settles…SLDBSolid BiosciencesLow Solid Biosciences' Duchenne gene therapy SGT-003 is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Type C meeting in late 2026 and its minutes decide whether accelerated approval stays open.STROSutro BiopharmaLow Sutro Biopharma's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: cash fell to $142.2 million at 30 September 2026, Merck ended MK-1484 on 7 November 2026, and the next STRO-004 data update is guided to the first half of 2027.SYRESpyre TherapeuticsLow Spyre Therapeutics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its three bowel-disease antibodies cleared single-agent trials, but combination data is not due until the third quarter of 2027 and the company keeps issuing…TENXTenax TherapeuticsLow Tenax Therapeutics is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its recovery needs the FDA to accept an enriched LEVEL-2 trial of TNX-103 after LEVEL failed. The undated Type C meeting outcome settles it.TNGXTango TherapeuticsLow Tango Therapeutics' pancreatic-cancer combination is active, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the 23 October 2026 ESMO update (82% response in 22 patients versus 92% in 12) did not extend June's result.…TSHATaysha Gene TherapiesLow Taysha Gene Therapies' Rett syndrome therapy TSHA-102 is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; pivotal six-month interim data and FDA feedback on the filing route, guided to the first half of 2027, settle it.VERULow Veru's case rests on whether its oral drug enobosarm preserves lean mass alongside semaglutide; the PLATEAU 32-week interim, guided to calendar Q1 2027, settles it, while going-concern doubt and an open stock-sale program cap the shares.XENEXenon PharmaceuticalsLow Xenon Pharmaceuticals' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because a December 2026 depression readout under a safety overhang now outweighs its pending epilepsy filing; FDA acceptance, due about 16 November 2026, and that readout…ZURAZura BioLow Zura Bio's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the TibuSHIELD hidradenitis suppurativa trial failed on 9 November 2026 and the company dropped that indication. Only the systemic sclerosis result, due by mid-2027,…