ALMS · Alumis
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $8.08
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
30.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $8.08, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 78.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $8.08, well over the 12 November 2026 close of $6.13, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. An announced envudeucitinib NDA submission before 31 December 2026 with no new equity financing would also point to the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1.9
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −7.7
- Operating margin (%)
- −5195.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −321
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 431
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 40.4
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −44.3
All filed numbers
What Alumis reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1.9 | −7.7 | −5195.4 |
| first filed | 1.7 | −37.7 | −8956.4 |
| first filed | 1.7 | −90.0 | −5652.4 |
| first filed | 1.9 | — | −4999.7 |
| first filed | 2.1 | — | −5580.4 |
| first filed | 2.7 | — | −5271.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −94.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −423 | −94.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +24.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −320 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −321 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 431 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 431 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 6.9 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 378 |
| Market value ($M) | 724 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 293 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 40.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −44.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.9 days of average trading to cover, +7.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $10.7M | $1.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $39.0M | $1.6M |
The thesis
Alumis is a one-drug psoriasis company, and its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The settling event is the New Drug Application (NDA) for envudeucitinib that Alumis has guided for the fourth quarter of 2026, which ends on 31 December 2026. The company repeated in its 12 November 2026 third-quarter release that it remains on track to submit the NDA to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.
Cash is the other half of the case. Alumis held $431.3 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 30 September 2026, against $502.3 million at 30 June 2026, and said the money funds operations into the fourth quarter of 2027. The third-quarter net loss was $94.9 million. The release announces no financing and gives no funded plan for lupus, where the company says only that it "plans to conduct end-of-Phase 2 regulatory interactions and evaluate development options."
The shares closed at $6.13 on 12 November 2026, the day of the release, after $6.62 on 11 November 2026. That is 75.8% below the 3-month reference close of $25.31 on 14 August 2026, before the 408-patient LUMUS Phase 2b lupus trial missed its primary and secondary endpoints in the overall population on 1 September 2026. The market has priced in the lupus failure. What remains is psoriasis, where Takeda's zasocitinib carries an FDA target action date in the first quarter of 2027.
Bullish and bearish views on Alumis Inc.
The bull case on Alumis Inc. (ALMS), in brief: psoriasis filing is on schedule. The bear case: cash is falling with the lupus question open.
Bull case
- Psoriasis filing is on schedule. The 12 November 2026 release reaffirmed an NDA submission in the fourth quarter of 2026, with two-year long-term safety data also expected that quarter. An announced submission would be the first regulatory step for the drug.
- Psoriasis data are strong for an oral drug. The 13 August 2026 results release reported 54% complete skin clearance (PASI 100) at Week 48 in the ONWARD3 trial, which Alumis describes as the highest publicly reported rate among oral psoriasis therapies.
- Cash covers the filing. Alumis reported $431.3 million at 30 September 2026 and guided runway into the fourth quarter of 2027 in the 12 November 2026 release.
- Trial spending is falling. Third-quarter research and development expense was $80.8 million, against $97.8 million a year earlier, because the ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 trials finished.
- A director bought after the drop. A Form 4 filed 9 September 2026 shows director Srinivas Akkaraju bought 986,721 shares at an average of $10.87 between 4 September 2026 and 8 September 2026, and sold 96,131 shares at $10.55 on 8 September 2026. The shares closed at $6.13 on 12 November 2026.
Bear case
- Cash is falling with the lupus question open. The balance fell from $502.3 million at 30 June 2026 to $431.3 million at 30 September 2026, per the 12 November 2026 8-K and 10-Q.
- Launch preparation is raising overhead. General and administrative expense was $20.2 million in the third quarter of 2026, against $19.5 million a year earlier, which the company attributed to launch preparation and personnel costs.
- Lupus has no funded path. The 12 November 2026 release gives no date for the End-of-Phase 2 interactions with regulators and announces no financing. The company cites its prespecified high-interferon-signature subgroup as the basis for further work.
- A direct competitor is ahead on the calendar. The FDA accepted Takeda's zasocitinib NDA under priority review with a first-quarter 2027 target action date, per Takeda's 14 September 2026 announcement.
- Revenue is negligible. Collaboration revenue from Kaken was $1.9 million in the third quarter of 2026, against $2.1 million a year earlier. No product revenue is possible before an approval.
- Dilution and insider selling are on file. Alumis closed a $17.00 follow-on of 20.3 million shares on 9 January 2026. Six executive officers reported open-market sales of 332 to 794 shares each at $6.52 on 2 November 2026, per Form 4 filings dated 4 November 2026.
Price setup
Closes were $6.13 on 12 November 2026, $6.62 on 11 November 2026, $6.40 on 10 November 2026, $6.55 on 9 November 2026, $6.03 on 6 November 2026 and $5.85 on 5 November 2026. The last close sits below the 50-day average of $7.36 and far below the 200-day average of $20.55, both as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $5.24, set on 12 November 2025, and the 52-week intraday high is $31.35, set on 8 July 2026.
The 1 September 2026 lupus failure set the current price range. The shares have traded between $5.85 and $6.62 in the six sessions from 5 November to 12 November 2026 listed above, a narrow band after the third-quarter report.
The case turns on dated business events more than on a price pattern. An NDA submission announced before 31 December 2026, and any equity financing filing, are the two observables most likely to move the shares.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the fourth quarter, in which Alumis guides to submit the envudeucitinib NDA in plaque psoriasis; two-year long-term safety data are also guided for the quarter. The submission is the one remaining dated company milestone; a quarter that ends with no announced filing would remove it.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End-of-Phase 2 regulatory interactions on the lupus program; the 12 November 2026 release gives no date. Shows whether regulators accept a Phase 3 limited to interferon-gene-signature-high patients or require an all-comers trial, which sets the cost of any lupus continuation.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): FDA target action date for Takeda's zasocitinib in plaque psoriasis, in the first quarter of 2027. An approval would put a once-daily oral TYK2 competitor on the market ahead of any Alumis approval.
What would change the view
A daily close above $8.08, well over the 12 November 2026 close of $6.13, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. An announced envudeucitinib NDA submission before 31 December 2026 with no new equity financing would also point to the shares leading.
What it trades with
Alumis trades on its own news and on competitor data in oral TYK2 (tyrosine kinase 2) psoriasis. Takeda's zasocitinib review and Bristol Myers Squibb's Sotyktu are the direct comparators. Two gaps in eight months, +95.31% on 6 January 2026 and roughly −56% on 1 September 2026, distort calculated beta, and the shares have not tracked index moves.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $431.3 million at 30 September 2026, with runway guided into the fourth quarter of 2027; third-quarter net loss $94.9 million; research and development $80.8 million; general and administrative $20.2 million; collaboration revenue $1.9 million. Alumis third-quarter 2026 results release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Alumis said it remains on track to submit the envudeucitinib NDA in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in the fourth quarter of 2026, with two-year safety data also expected that quarter. Alumis third-quarter 2026 results release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- The release says Alumis plans End-of-Phase 2 regulatory interactions and will evaluate development options for lupus; it announces no financing. Alumis third-quarter 2026 results release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $502.3 million at 30 June 2026; ONWARD3 showed 54% PASI 100 at Week 48; second-quarter net loss was $142.2 million including a $41.8 million impairment on lonigutamab. Alumis second-quarter 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- The LUMUS Phase 2b lupus trial (408 patients) missed its primary and secondary endpoints in the overall population; the psoriasis NDA was said to remain on track for the fourth quarter of 2026. Alumis 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- The FDA accepted Takeda's zasocitinib NDA for plaque psoriasis under priority review, with a first-quarter 2027 target action date. Takeda announcement via BioSpace and RTTNews · as of
- Six executive officers reported open-market sales of 332 to 794 shares each at $6.52 on 2 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings dated 4 November 2026 · as of
- Director Srinivas Akkaraju bought 986,721 shares at an average of $10.87 on 4 September to 8 September 2026 and sold 96,131 shares at $10.55 on 8 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 9 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- Alumis Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Highlights Recent Business Updates · globenewswire.com ·
- ALUMIS INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Alumis Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Highlights Recent Achievements · investors.alumis.com
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