Dormant
ALMS · Alumis Inc.
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 4 September 2026; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Resolved Graded and closed 2026-09-18 at low conviction — the published kill line fired. Coverage continued after the close; the read below is dated 2026-09-19 and is not part of the scored record.
Current thesis
The lupus leg is gone: LUMUS missed BICLA at Week 48 and every secondary in the overall 408-patient population on 2026-09-01, and the stock closed 2026-09-04 at $11.10 with RSI(14) at 18.2, 63.4% below the $30.30 high. What is left is a psoriasis pill with an NDA guided to 4Q 2026, $465.87M of net cash, and an IFNGS-high subgroup needing a Phase 3 that has no design and no date — a dead narrative with no company catalyst until the September fireside window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $10 says the post-failure repricing has not found a floor beneath the 2026-09-04 close of $11.10; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-15 fireside window passing with no funded IFNGS-selected Phase 3 plan, or the psoriasis NDA slipping out of 4Q 2026.
Pick status
Invalidated resolved published kill line fired How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for ALMS —
As of 19 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for Alumis Inc. (ALMS): The lupus leg is gone: LUMUS missed BICLA at Week 48 and every secondary in the overall 408-patient population on 2026-09-01, and the stock closed 2026-09-04 at $11.10 with RSI(14) at 18.2, 63.4% below the $30.30 high. What is left is a psoriasis pill with an NDA guided to 4Q 2026, $465.87M of net cash, and an IFNGS-high subgroup needing a Phase 3 that has no design and no date — a dead narrative with no company catalyst until the September fireside window.
Kill line: A weekly close below $10 says the post-failure repricing has not found a floor beneath the 2026-09-04 close of $11.10; secondarily, the 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-15 fireside window passing with no funded IFNGS-selected Phase 3 plan, or the psoriasis NDA slipping out of 4Q 2026.
Current Thesis
Alumis’s remaining thesis is a psoriasis filing recovery, tested by submission by 2026-12-31 and a weekly reclaim of $10 before a weekly close below $7.77. This is a conditional recovery hypothesis: the 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $7.77 already breached the $10 weekly-close condition published on 2026-09-06. The earlier stabilization case has failed.
For the lupus expansion story, the narrative is dead — Alumis reported on 2026-09-01 that LUMUS missed its primary and secondary endpoints in the overall population. The surviving company guidance is a fourth-quarter 2026 New Drug Application (NDA) submission for envudeucitinib in plaque psoriasis. Submission would establish a regulatory milestone; it would not establish approval or commercial demand. Alumis’s September 1 filing.
Bullish and bearish views on Alumis Inc.
The model's bull view on Alumis Inc. (ALMS), in brief: Psoriasis has clinical evidence. Alumis’s 2026-08-13 results release reported that 75% of patients achieved at least 90% improvement on the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index, while 54% achieved complete clearance, after up to 48 weeks of continuous treatment in ONWARD3… The bear view: The published floor failed. The 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $7.77 was below the previous research threshold of $10. The supplied market series also records a three-month decline of 68.4% through that date; a recovery remains an inference rather than an observed reversal. Lupus… Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Psoriasis has clinical evidence. Alumis’s 2026-08-13 results release reported that 75% of patients achieved at least 90% improvement on the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index, while 54% achieved complete clearance, after up to 48 weeks of continuous treatment in ONWARD3, involving 773 patients. These results support the filing rationale but do not settle regulatory review. Company results release.
- Filing guidance survived the setback. The 2026-09-01 lupus announcement retained the fourth-quarter 2026 psoriasis NDA timetable. That separates the surviving filing case from the failed lupus trial; absence of submission by 2026-12-31 would break its timing assumption. September 1 filing.
- Cash provides a funding resource. Alumis reported $502.3 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 2026-06-30 in its 2026-08-13 release. This is a historical balance, not a September cash estimate or evidence that an additional lupus trial is funded. Company results release.
Bear Case
- The published floor failed. The 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $7.77 was below the previous research threshold of $10. The supplied market series also records a three-month decline of 68.4% through that date; a recovery remains an inference rather than an observed reversal.
- Lupus remains clinically unresolved. The 2026-09-01 release attributed favorable responses to a prespecified subgroup with a high interferon gene signature, while reporting failure in the overall population. A company-reported subgroup response does not establish success in a subsequent trial. September 1 filing.
- Conference dates have elapsed. The appearances announced on 2026-09-04 ran from 2026-09-08 through 2026-09-15. They no longer qualify as upcoming catalysts, and the company’s retrieved events listing supplies no replacement date inside the next month. Conference announcement, company events.
Setup & Price Structure
Measured through 2026-09-18, the adjusted close was $7.77, the shares were 74.4% below the supplied 52-week high of $30.30, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was 10.9. These observations describe substantial price weakness. The supplied observations are too limited to establish a base or estimate the probability of a rebound from the RSI reading.
The $7.77 threshold uses the market’s 2026-09-18 reference close; it is not an independently established support shelf. The former $10 research boundary supplies the recovery test. The narrower case succeeds only if the company announces the psoriasis submission and the market records a weekly close above $10 by 2026-12-31, before the new invalidation condition occurs.
Positioning evidence is mixed and specific. Director Srinivas Akkaraju’s Form 4, filed 2026-09-09, disclosed purchases by affiliated Samsara funds on 2026-09-04 and both purchases and sales on 2026-09-08. This filing cannot establish broad institutional accumulation, retail crowding or a squeeze; current retail-participation and moving-average evidence is missing. SEC filing index, Form 4 transcription.
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
- 2026-09-20 through 2026-10-20: No confirmed company catalyst date was identified in the retrieved investor calendar. Its September conference listings are historical; their passage does not establish what management disclosed during the webcasts. Company events.
- 2026-12-31 — guidance deadline: This is the end of the fourth-quarter filing window reaffirmed on 2026-09-01, not a scheduled submission date. A submission announcement by this deadline would satisfy the regulatory milestone in the recovery hypothesis; no announcement would leave that milestone unmet. September 1 filing.
What Would Change Our Mind
Loss of the September reference close would end the narrower stabilization hypothesis: a weekly close below $7.77 invalidates it. Absence of an announced psoriasis NDA submission by 2026-12-31 independently breaks the filing timetable retained in Alumis’s 2026-09-01 release. The prior $10 condition has already failed; changing the research question does not reverse that result.
Clinical reconsideration of lupus would require disclosed subgroup results and a regulator-informed development plan beyond the subgroup interpretation in the 2026-09-01 announcement. Neither a price recovery nor a psoriasis submission would establish lupus efficacy. September 1 filing.
Correlation Notes
This is a single-company catalyst hypothesis. The 2026-09-01 clinical failure and the 2026-09-18 price observations provide dated company evidence, but no matched sector-return series is available here to measure correlation or separate sector effects from company effects. The supplied sample is too small to support a correlation claim; the recovery test therefore depends on Alumis’s filing announcement and its own weekly closes.
Notes
- Pre-revenue: the only reported top line is collaboration revenue ($1.662M in Q2 2026). No product revenue is possible before an approval.
- Pure immunology - oral TYK2 for psoriasis and lupus, no oncology program, despite sector screens grouping it with Oncology & immunology names.
- Competitor read-across is direct: Takeda's zasocitinib and BMS's Sotyktu datasets can reprice the stock with no news from Alumis itself.
- Published beta is distorted by two gaps in eight months: +95.31% on 2026-01-06 and roughly -56% on 2026-09-01; the name does not track index moves.
- Issuance into strength is the established pattern: a $17.00 follow-on of 20.3M shares closed 2026-01-09; shares outstanding are up 92.96% year over year.
- The 'into 4Q 2027' runway statement dates from 2026-08-13 and predates any decision to fund a biomarker-selected SLE Phase 3.
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