ALNT · Allient
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $79.00
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Results, 4 November 2026: Third-quarter 2026 orders were a record $218.1 million (1.33x book-to-bill), backlog rose to $351.5 million and adjusted EPS of $1.07 beat the $0.74 consensus.
Price against the kill line
Closed 1.7% through its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $79.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 31.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $79.00, which would put the shares back under their $79.56 price of 4 November 2026, the day of the third-quarter report. A book-to-bill under 1.0x or backlog below $351.5 million at the fourth-quarter report would also show the case failing.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 164
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +18.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 36.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 13.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 23.1
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −134
- Price to earnings (×)
- 35.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.4
All filed numbers
What Allient reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 164 | +18.5 | 36.6 | 13.6 |
| first filed | 154 | +10.2 | 34.9 | 10.2 |
| first filed | 139 | +4.6 | 32.7 | 6.7 |
| first filed | 143 | +17.5 | 32.4 | 7.9 |
| first filed | 139 | +10.8 | 33.3 | 8.8 |
| first filed | 140 | +2.6 | 33.2 | 8.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 19.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 37.5 | 15.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 35.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 12.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 23.1 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 39.6 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 173 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −134 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +12.5% on a year | 3.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 5 March 2026; +0.9% on a year | 233 |
| Receivables ($M) | 110 |
| Inventory ($M) | 127 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 327 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,321 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,455 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 24.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 35.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.0 days of average trading to cover, +3.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $50K | $50K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $97K | $9.3M |
The thesis
Allient, a maker of motion-control components, is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report of 4 November 2026 showed record orders and record margins, and the shares have fallen well below their high. Fourth-quarter results, expected around February 2027, show whether the record $351.5 million backlog converts into revenue and cash.
The company reported orders of $218.1 million, up 64% from a year earlier and 8% from the second quarter. Book-to-bill (orders divided by revenue) was 1.33x. Backlog rose from $298.0 million at the end of the second quarter to $351.5 million. Revenue was $164.4 million, up 18% (company release, via Finviz, 4 November 2026).
Adjusted earnings per share were $1.07 against a $0.74 consensus, per a 4 November 2026 earnings headline. Gross margin was a record 36.6%, up 330 basis points, and operating margin was 13.6% (Earnings Whispers, 5 November 2026).
The price already reflects doubt about cash, not about orders. The shares closed at $84.40 on 12 November 2026, 30.5% below the 52-week high of $121.42 set on 2 October 2026, even after the record quarter. Nine-month operating cash flow was $22.1 million against $43.1 million a year earlier.
Bullish and bearish views on Allient Inc.
The bull case on Allient Inc. (ALNT), in brief: orders and backlog both set records. The bear case: cash conversion lags growth.
Bull case
- Orders and backlog both set records. Third-quarter orders of $218.1 million and a 1.33x book-to-bill lifted backlog to $351.5 million, per the 4 November 2026 release.
- Margins widened with volume. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $29.7 million, 18.0% of revenue, per Earnings Whispers on 5 November 2026. Gross margin of 36.6% was up 330 basis points from a year earlier.
- Leverage fell. Total debt was $173.4 million and net debt $133.7 million, a leverage ratio of 1.49x against 1.82x at year-end 2025, per the release of 4 November 2026. Management signaled a more active acquisition stance on the 5 November 2026 call.
- Management reports unfilled demand. CEO Richard Warzala said on the 5 November 2026 call that past-due orders remain and that shipments would have been higher without material and capacity constraints (MarketBeat call summary).
- The shares recovered after the report. They closed at $75.48 on 5 November 2026, the session after the report, then at $86.84 on 9 November 2026 and $84.40 on 12 November 2026, per daily closes.
Bear case
- Cash conversion lags growth. Nine-month operating cash flow of $22.1 million compares with $43.1 million a year earlier. Inventory rose about $21 million and receivables about $22 million (Earnings Whispers, 5 November 2026). StockStory reports third-quarter free cash flow of negative $1.61 million.
- Part of the strength was timing. Vehicle revenue rose 27%, including shipments pulled ahead of a customer's model changeover. Aerospace and defense revenue rose 36%, partly on program timing (Earnings Whispers, 5 November 2026).
- Backlog is converting more slowly. Management now expects most backlog to convert within six to twelve months, against three to nine months stated at a 10 September 2026 conference. Shortages of magnets, rare earths, electronics, steel and insulation are creating past-due shipments.
- Orders may include safety stock. Earnings Whispers noted on 5 November 2026 that some of the surge reflects customers booking further out. If supply eases and orders slow, backlog would run down.
- Insiders sold into strength in August. A Form 4 filed 12 August 2026 shows trusts of chief executive Richard Warzala sold 70,000 shares at $112.49 to $115.765 on 10 August 2026. Five directors received stock grants of 312 to 355 shares at $79.56 on 4 November 2026 (Form 4 filings of 5 November 2026); these are awards, not open-market purchases.
- Analysts are cutting targets. JPMorgan held an overweight rating and a $120 target on 7 August 2026 (MarketBeat). A 7 November 2026 headline reports it maintains a neutral rating and lowers its target; the new figure is not public in the headline.
Price setup
The shares closed at $84.40 on 12 November 2026, down 24.2% over three months on adjusted closes. The 3-month reference close was $111.41 on 14 August 2026.
The 200-day moving average is $83.45 and the 50-day moving average is $98.24 (adjusted closes, as of 12 November 2026). The shares sit just above the first and well below the second. They closed at $75.48 on 5 November 2026, the lowest close in the recent run, before climbing above the 200-day average.
The 52-week high is $121.42 (intraday, 2 October 2026). The 52-week closing low is $48.39 on 20 November 2025.
Average daily volume was about 223,000 shares per MarketBeat in September 2026, so single filings and analyst changes can move the price sharply.
Catalysts ahead
- ~15 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether the backlog converts to revenue within the six-to-twelve-month window and whether operating cash flow recovers from $22.1 million for nine months.
What would change the view
A daily close below $79.00, which would put the shares back under their $79.56 price of 4 November 2026, the day of the third-quarter report. A book-to-bill under 1.0x or backlog below $351.5 million at the fourth-quarter report would also show the case failing.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Part of third-quarter revenue and orders reflects pull-forward and safety-stock building that reverses. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter orders falling toward revenue (book-to-bill near 1.0x) or vehicle revenue declining after the customer's model changeover.
- Revenue grows without cash generation as inventory and receivables build. Confirmed by: full-year 2026 operating cash flow below the $43.1 million reported for the first nine months of 2025, or inventory turns below 3.0x.
- Material shortages delay backlog conversion past the six-to-twelve-month window. Confirmed by: management extending the conversion window again, or past-due shipments growing at the fourth-quarter report.
- Further analyst target cuts follow JPMorgan's reduction and extend the share-price decline. Confirmed by: other covering firms lowering ratings or price targets after the 4 November 2026 report.
What it trades with
Allient makes motion-control components used in vehicle, industrial, aerospace and defense, and medical equipment. Its orders follow industrial capital spending and defense program timing. Shortages of rare-earth magnets and electronics tie its shipment pace to the same supply limits that affect other motor and automation suppliers.
The shares have traded on company-specific news more than on any sector group. The August 2026 report lifted them to the October high, and the shares then fell 22.9% to $79.56 before the November report, per Earnings Whispers.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 orders were a record $218.1 million, up 64% from a year earlier, with a 1.33x book-to-bill; backlog was $351.5 million, up from $298.0 million in the second quarter. Allient third-quarter 2026 results release via Finviz · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $164.4 million, up 18%; adjusted earnings per share were $1.07 against a $0.74 consensus. Allient release via Finviz; 4 November 2026 earnings headline · as of
- Gross margin was 36.6%, up 330 basis points; operating margin was 13.6%; adjusted EBITDA was $29.7 million, 18.0% of revenue. Allient release via Finviz; Earnings Whispers · as of
- Nine-month 2026 operating cash flow was $22.1 million against $43.1 million a year earlier, with inventory up about $21 million and receivables up about $22 million. Earnings Whispers Q3 2026 summary · as of
- Total debt was $173.4 million and net debt $133.7 million, a leverage ratio of 1.49x versus 1.82x at year-end 2025. Allient third-quarter 2026 results release via Finviz · as of
- Management now expects most backlog to convert to revenue within six to twelve months, extended from three to nine months. Earnings Whispers Q3 2026 summary · as of
- JPMorgan maintained a neutral rating on Allient and lowered its price target; it had held an overweight rating with a $120 target on 7 August 2026. News headline of 7 November 2026; MarketBeat · as of
- Five directors received stock grants of 312 to 355 shares at $79.56 on 4 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings of 5 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Finviz
- Finviz ·
- MarketBeat ·
- Allient Q3 Revenue Grows 18% to $164 Million · panabee.com
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