CORT · Corcept Therapeutics
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $65
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $65.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 37.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $65, a level beneath both the 11 November 2026 close of $74.53 and the 200-day moving average, which would show the post-earnings decline extending. A second FDA complete response letter for relacorilant in Cushing's syndrome on 17 December 2026 would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 341
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +64.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 98.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 33.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 195
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 371
- Price to earnings (×)
- 49.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 7.9
All filed numbers
What Corcept Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 341 | +64.0 | 98.6 | 33.7 |
| first filed | 256 | +31.7 | 98.4 | 16.1 |
| first filed | 165 | +4.9 | 98.3 | −30.1 |
| first filed | 202 | +11.1 | 98.7 | 2.2 |
| first filed | 208 | +13.7 | 97.8 | 4.9 |
| first filed | 194 | +18.7 | 98.2 | 13.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 120 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 162 | 127 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +3.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 198 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 3.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 195 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 371 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 371 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 111 |
| Inventory ($M) | 11.9 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 834 |
| Market value ($M) | 7,983 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 7,612 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 7.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) no debt reported | 68.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 49.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 2.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 12.3 days of average trading to cover, +0.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $40.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $3.3M | $97.7M |
The thesis
Corcept Therapeutics' ovarian-cancer drug Lifyorli is growing fast, and the shares have fallen anyway because the company left its 2026 revenue guidance unchanged. The 17 December 2026 FDA target action date for relacorilant in Cushing's syndrome settles the next stage of the case, and Lifyorli's Q4 2026 revenue decides the stage after that. The shares closed at $74.53 on 11 November 2026, 41.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $126.38 set on 25 August 2026, and 32.6% lower over three months.
Corcept reported Q3 2026 revenue of $340.472 million on 3 November 2026, against a $336.370 million estimate, per Benzinga. Earnings per share were $1.01 against an $0.81 estimate. Lifyorli brought in $91.4 million, up 92% from $47.6 million in Q2, and Korlym with its authorized generic contributed $249.1 million, per the company's 8-K press release.
Corcept affirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $1.1–$1.2 billion; Benzinga cited a consensus estimate of $1.146 billion. Coverage by 247WallSt and finviz attributes the sell-off to that unchanged range after a large earnings beat.
The price already reflects doubt that revenue keeps rising from the Q3 level: after the report the shares closed at $79.22 on 4 November 2026 and $71.63 on 5 November 2026, and they have held between $71.63 and $75.03 since.
Bullish and bearish views on Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated
The bull case on Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (CORT), in brief: Lifyorli nearly doubled in a quarter. The bear case: guidance did not rise.
Bull case
- Lifyorli nearly doubled in a quarter. Revenue rose to $91.4 million in Q3 2026 from $47.6 million in Q2, per Corcept's release. Finviz reports more than 1,700 prescribers and 2,300 patients treated.
- Earnings beat on both lines. Q3 EPS was $1.01 against an $0.81 estimate, and revenue topped the $336.370 million estimate, per Benzinga on 3 November 2026.
- Guidance brackets consensus. The $1.1–$1.2 billion range includes the $1.146 billion consensus Benzinga cited. Finviz calculates that the low end implies Q4 revenue of about $339 million, close to Q3's $340.5 million, so any Q4 revenue above the Q3 level would sit inside the range.
- Management is buying back stock. Corcept repurchased $43.7 million of its common stock in Q3, per 247WallSt's summary of the results.
- Clinical and regulatory news keeps arriving. Corcept announced positive Part A results from its Phase 2 BELLA trial of Lifyorli with nab-paclitaxel and bevacizumab on 26 October 2026. The European Commission decision on relacorilant in ovarian cancer is expected by year-end, after the 18 September 2026 recommendation from the European Medicines Agency's CHMP (its human-medicines committee).
- A sell-side target sits far above the price. Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight and raised its target to $173 on 4 November 2026, after the Q3 report, per Benzinga.
Bear case
- Guidance did not rise. Corcept left the 2026 range unchanged after a quarter that beat estimates. Analysts pressed management on this on the 3 November 2026 call, and finviz reports the answers did not fully settle it.
- The Cushing's application failed once. The FDA issued a complete response letter on 27 May 2026, and Corcept resubmitted the application on 17 June 2026, per the company. Finviz reports that liver-enzyme questions went unaddressed on the Q3 call.
- Competition is entering ovarian cancer. Analysts raised Genmab's Rina-S on the Q3 call, per finviz.
- Pipeline timing slipped. Finviz reports the ALS Phase 3 start moved from mid-2026 to next year, and the MASH program needs another Phase 2 study before Phase 3.
- Executives sold into the decline. SEC Form 4 filings dated 4 November 2026 show Sean Maduck sold 25,000 shares at an average $81.85 and Roberto Wandenkolk Vieira, President, Oncology, sold 8,333 shares at an average $80.89, on 2 November 2026 and 3 November 2026, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans (pre-arranged trading plans). Director James Wilson sold 10,000 shares at an average $114.81 on 15 October 2026, also under a plan.
- Litigation continues. A securities class action and an amended former-employee complaint filed 3 June 2026 remain live.
Price setup
The shares closed at $74.53 on 11 November 2026. The 200-day moving average is $76.22 and the 50-day moving average is $105.23, so the shares sit slightly below the longer average and far below the shorter one. The 52-week intraday high is $126.38 (25 August 2026), and the 52-week closing low is $32.15 (13 March 2026).
The post-report closes were $79.22 on 4 November 2026, $71.63 on 5 November 2026, $72.77 on 6 November 2026, $75.03 on 9 November 2026, $73.35 on 10 November 2026 and $74.53 on 11 November 2026. The shares have stopped falling but have not recovered the 4 November 2026 close.
The sell-off followed a quarter that beat estimates, so it reflects the unchanged guide and the pending FDA decision rather than the quarter's numbers. A close below the 200-day average has not been sustained: the five closes since 5 November 2026 straddle it only from beneath.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 December 2026: FDA target action date for relacorilant in Cushing's syndrome (resubmission after the 27 May 2026 complete response letter). Approval would add a second U.S. indication; a second nonapproval would remove it and break the case.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): European Commission decision on relacorilant plus nab-paclitaxel in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. A positive decision converts the 18 September 2026 committee opinion into a European approval.
What would change the view
A daily close below $65, a level beneath both the 11 November 2026 close of $74.53 and the 200-day moving average, which would show the post-earnings decline extending. A second FDA complete response letter for relacorilant in Cushing's syndrome on 17 December 2026 would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Unchanged guidance implies little sequential revenue growth from the Q3 level. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 revenue near the $339 million that the low end of the $1.1 billion guide implies, per a finviz analysis, rather than a step up from the $340.5 million Q3 figure.
- The Cushing's resubmission is rejected a second time. Confirmed by: a complete response letter on or before the 17 December 2026 FDA target date; liver-enzyme questions went unaddressed on the Q3 call, per finviz.
- New ovarian-cancer competition slows Lifyorli prescribing. Confirmed by: a slowdown in Lifyorli sequential growth in Q4 2026 from the $91.4 million reported for Q3; analysts raised Genmab's Rina-S on the Q3 call, per finviz.
- Korlym growth slows or generic erosion accelerates. Confirmed by: Korlym and authorized-generic revenue falling below the $249.1 million reported for Q3 2026.
What it trades with
Corcept trades on its own events: the 17 December 2026 FDA date, the European Commission decision and the Lifyorli sales trend. Its endocrinology franchise carries mifepristone policy headline exposure that does not move with oncology news. Genmab's Rina-S is a named competitive reference in ovarian cancer, per finviz's account of the Q3 call. Two reported Lifyorli quarters are too small a sample to establish a growth trend, and none is drawn here.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $340.472 million against a $336.370 million estimate; EPS was $1.01 against a $0.81 estimate. Benzinga, Corcept Q3 2026 results · as of
- Lifyorli revenue was $91.4 million, up 92% from $47.6 million in Q2 2026; Korlym and its authorized generic contributed $249.1 million. Corcept Q3 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Corcept affirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $1.1–$1.2 billion; the consensus estimate was $1.146 billion. Benzinga · as of
- Corcept repurchased $43.7 million of its common stock in Q3 2026. 247WallSt summary of Q3 2026 results · as of
- Piper Sandler reiterated Overweight and raised its price target to $173. Benzinga analyst actions · as of
- Corcept announced positive Part A results from the Phase 2 BELLA trial of Lifyorli with nab-paclitaxel and bevacizumab in ovarian cancer. Corcept press release · as of
- Sean Maduck sold 25,000 shares at an average $81.85 and Roberto Wandenkolk Vieira sold 8,333 shares at an average $80.89 on 2 November to 3 November 2026, under Rule 10b5-1 plans. SEC Form 4 filings dated 4 November 2026 · as of
- The CHMP recommended relacorilant plus nab-paclitaxel for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer; the European Commission decision is expected by year-end. Corcept CHMP release; 247WallSt · as of
Sources
- CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Finviz
- Corcept Therapeutics Q3 2026: 20% EPS Beat, Shares Still Sold Off · 247wallst.com
- Corcept Therapeutics announces third quarter financial results and provides corporate update · finviz.com
- Corcept Resubmits New Drug Application for Relacorilant as a Treatment for Patients with Cushing's Syndrome · ir.corcept.com
Related · shared themes
SMMT
Summit Therapeutics
Summit Therapeutics' case rests on FDA approval of ivonescimab in EGFR-mutant lung cancer by the 14 November 2026 goal date. The agency's…
ZLAB
Zai Lab
Zai Lab's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on zoci, its DLL3 cancer drug with an 81.8% first-line…
SLS
SELLAS Life Sciences Group
SELLAS Life Sciences is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its value rests on one Phase 3 leukemia trial, REGAL, whose…
ELVN
Enliven Therapeutics
Enliven Therapeutics is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: $884.4 million in cash and FDA alignment fund…
See also · stocks to watch