MGNX · MacroGenics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $2.71
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $2.71, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 45.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $2.71, well over the $2.42 close of 10 November 2026, the highest close in the past week, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; or company guidance that extends the cash runway beyond 2028.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 18.7
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −64.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 100.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −108.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −41.3
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −29.4
All filed numbers
What MacroGenics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 18.7 | −64.8 | — | −108.8 |
| first filed | 32.8 | +378.0 | — | −42.2 |
| first filed | 20.8 | +57.5 | — | −161.0 |
| first filed restated | 53.0 | −52.1 | 100.0 | 19.6 |
| first filed restated | 6.9 | −36.4 | 100.0 | −629.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −21.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −51.5 | −20.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −39.9 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −41.3 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 49.0 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −16.1% on a year | 55.5 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.4 |
| Inventory ($M) at 31 March 2026, filed 13 May 2026 | 9.5 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 25.2 |
| Market value ($M) | 141 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −29.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.2 days of average trading to cover, −28.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $129K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $129K |
The thesis
MacroGenics' antibody-drug conjugate MGC026 produced head-and-neck tumor responses at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) congress on 23 October 2026, yet the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The company's third-quarter report on 12 November 2026 kept runway guidance at 2028 but showed revenue of $18.7 million, down from $53.0 million a year earlier. The next MGC026 efficacy update is guided to mid-2027.
The shares closed at $2.29 on 12 November 2026, the day of the report, and are down 45.7% over three months. The market has treated neither the ESMO data nor the funding guidance as a reason to revalue the company.
The ESMO poster (1020P) used a 1 September 2026 data cutoff, according to a BioPharmaWatch summary of the company release. In the head-and-neck expansion, 6 of 22 response-evaluable patients responded: four confirmed and two unconfirmed partial responses.
Bullish and bearish views on MacroGenics, Inc.
The bull case on MacroGenics, Inc. (MGNX), in brief: cash covers guided runway. The bear case: revenue fell sharply.
Bull case
- Cash covers guided runway. MacroGenics reported $287.7 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities on 30 September 2026 and said cash plus projected partner payments supports operations through 2028 (company 8-K, 12 November 2026).
- Dose-escalation responses lasted. Among 17 response-evaluable patients dosed at 6 mg/kg or higher, the confirmed response rate was 29% (5 of 17) and median duration of response was 10.2 months, per the BioPharmaWatch summary of the 23 October 2026 release.
- No lung or eye toxicity reported. None of 85 treated MGC026 patients had interstitial lung disease or ocular toxicity, and no fatal treatment-related events were reported. The same company release says MGC028, a second antibody-drug conjugate, had no dose-limiting toxicities, lung disease or eye toxicity at a 10 October 2026 data cutoff.
- The pipeline is widening. The company completed MGC028 dose escalation, selected a lead indication and dosed the first patient with MGC030 in a Phase 1 study (12 November 2026 release). It plans to finish enrolling the 40-patient MGC026 head-and-neck cohort by year-end 2026.
- A front-line study is planned. MacroGenics plans a cohort in early 2027 combining MGC026 with pembrolizumab in PD-L1-positive recurrent or metastatic head-and-neck cancer.
Bear case
- Revenue fell sharply. Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $18.7 million against $53.0 million in the third quarter of 2025, and the company swung to a net loss of $20.1 million from net income of $16.8 million (12 November 2026 release). Second-quarter revenue of $32.8 million had leaned on a $24.5 million Sanofi milestone.
- Runway guidance was not extended. Guidance stays at 2028 and relies on projected partner payments, so revenue that depends on milestones carries part of the funding case.
- MGC026's strategy is under review. The 12 November 2026 release says the company is reviewing its development and collaboration strategy for MGC026, which leaves the path for its lead program open.
- The headline response rate includes unconfirmed responses. The head-and-neck rate counts two unconfirmed partial responses; four of 22 patients had confirmed responses.
- Grade 3 or worse adverse events were common. In the 85-patient safety population, 51% had treatment-related Grade 3 or higher events, led by neutropenia (27%) and anemia (25%). Treatment-related events led 5% of patients to discontinue.
Price setup
MacroGenics closed at $2.29 on 12 November 2026. Closes in the prior week ran from $2.22 on 5 November 2026 to $2.42 on 10 November 2026, a narrow range after the three-month decline from $4.22 on 14 August 2026.
The 52-week high is $5.08, set intraday on 24 June 2026; the last close is 54.9% below it. The 52-week closing low is $1.33 on 8 December 2025. The 50-day average is $3.37 and the 200-day average is $3.44, both as of 12 November 2026, so the shares trade below both.
SEC Form 4 filings show an open-market sale of 31,105 shares at $4.15 on 19 August 2026 by Jeffrey Stuart Peters, the general counsel, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Ezio Bonvini, the chief scientific officer, exercised options on 8,000 shares at $2.60 on 6 October 2026 and on 40,000 shares at $2.60 on 17 August 2026. The filings list no open-market insider purchases.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Company-guided year-end 2026 targets: finish enrolling the 40-patient MGC026 head-and-neck cohort and start the randomized two-dose evaluation of MGC028. Shows whether the pipeline timetable the company set on 12 November 2026 holds, and whether the MGC026 strategy review produces a partnership or development decision.
- ~1 January 2027 (early 2027, est.): Start of the front-line MGC026 plus pembrolizumab head-and-neck cohort. The next company-guided clinical step for MGC026.
- ~30 June 2027 (first half of 2027, est.): Updated MGC026 head-and-neck data and the MGC028 interim clinical update. The next efficacy readouts that can confirm or weaken response durability and the case for MGC028.
What would change the view
A daily close above $2.71, well over the $2.42 close of 10 November 2026, the highest close in the past week, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; or company guidance that extends the cash runway beyond 2028.
What it trades with
MacroGenics trades on its own clinical and cash news. MGC026 targets B7-H3, so data from other B7-H3 programs in head-and-neck cancer is the closest outside read-through. Small-cap biotech funding conditions also affect the shares, but no correlation figure is available.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $18.7 million versus $53.0 million in Q3 2025; net loss $20.1 million versus net income $16.8 million; R&D expense $30.6 million. MacroGenics Q3 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $287.7 million at 30 September 2026; cash plus projected partner payments guided to support operations through 2028. MacroGenics Q3 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- The company is reviewing its development and collaboration strategy for MGC026; the 40-patient head-and-neck cohort is guided to finish enrolling by year-end 2026 and updated MGC026 data to mid-2027. MacroGenics Q3 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- MGC028 dose escalation complete with a lead indication chosen; no dose-limiting toxicities, interstitial lung disease or ocular toxicity at the 10 October 2026 data cutoff; first patient dosed with MGC030. MacroGenics Q3 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- MGC026 dose escalation (17 response-evaluable patients at 6 mg/kg or higher): confirmed response rate 29% (5/17), median duration of response 10.2 months; data cutoff 1 September 2026. BioPharmaWatch summary of MacroGenics ESMO 2026 poster 1020P release · as of
- MGC026 head-and-neck expansion: 6 of 22 response-evaluable patients responded (four confirmed, two unconfirmed partial responses); disease control 64%. BioPharmaWatch summary of MacroGenics ESMO 2026 poster 1020P release · as of
- Across 85 treated patients, treatment-related Grade 3 or higher events occurred in 51% and discontinuations in 5%, with no interstitial lung disease or ocular toxicity and no Grade 5 events. BioPharmaWatch summary of MacroGenics ESMO 2026 poster 1020P release · as of
- General counsel Jeffrey Stuart Peters sold 31,105 shares at $4.15 on 19 August 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 20 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- MACROGENICS INC - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- BioPharmaWatch ·
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