ALVO · Alvotech

The thesis

Alvotech's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Cash fell to $61.5 million at 30 September 2026, and management now expects 2026 results toward the lower end of guidance. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions on AVT05 and AVT06, its biosimilars to Simponi and Eylea, settle the question. The company has guided to those decisions in Q4 2026. The question is whether approvals arrive before Alvotech has to raise money again.

Alvotech reported third-quarter results after the U.S. close on 11 November 2026. Total revenue was $111.6 million, against $113.9 million a year earlier. News headlines that day put the consensus sales estimate at $119.0 million and the loss per share at $0.23, against a $0.07 estimate. Revenue guidance of $650–700 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance of $180–220 million were kept. The release says performance is "now expected toward the lower end of the range."

The quarter had real progress in it. Product and service revenue rose 78.3% to $58.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $31.5 million. The balance sheet decides the rating. Nine-month operating cash outflow was $205.6 million, according to MarketBeat's 11 November 2026 summary of the release. Cash at quarter-end had fallen from $172.4 million at the end of 2025, even after a $164.6 million equity raise in June. The rating is Low because a further raise before approval-driven revenue arrives looks more likely than not. The release gives no new decision date for AVT05 or AVT06.

Bullish and bearish views on Alvotech

The bull case on Alvotech (ALVO), in brief: product sales are recovering after the plant fix. The bear case: cash is low against heavy debt.

Bull case

• Product sales are recovering after the plant fix. Product and service revenue was $58.2 million in Q3 2026, up 78.3% from $32.6 million a year earlier. CEO Lisa Graver said in the 11 November 2026 release that this was up 6% from Q2.
• Profitability improved through the year. Nine-month adjusted EBITDA was $78.3 million, against $68.0 million a year earlier (results release, 11 November 2026).
• The Reykjavik plant has a clean FDA record now. Alvotech's 19 August 2026 first-half release says the FDA closed its April–May 2026 inspection as Voluntary Action Indicated, which carries no formal enforcement. Coverage of the March 2026 earnings call says the late-2025 rejections came from plant findings, and that the FDA raised no analytical or clinical issues (MarketBeat, 19 March 2026).
• The FDA approved more Simlandi capacity. On 20 October 2026 the FDA approved Process 2.0 for Simlandi drug substance, which the company says more than doubles output per batch. On 5 October 2026 it cleared production in a second Reykjavik suite.
• The U.S. pipeline keeps growing. The FDA accepted the application for AVT80, a proposed Entyvio biosimilar with U.S. rights licensed to Teva (results release, 11 November 2026). Alvotech and Advanz Pharma filed the first known application for an Eylea 8mg biosimilar with the European Medicines Agency.
• AVT06 has a dated U.S. launch path. Teva said in 2025 that its settlement with Regeneron allows AVT06 to launch in the U.S. in Q4 2026, or earlier in some circumstances, if the FDA approves it.

Bear case

• Cash is low against heavy debt. Cash was $61.5 million on 30 September 2026. Borrowings were $1,341.3 million non-current plus $55.0 million current, and total equity was negative $267.3 million (balance sheet, results release, 11 November 2026).
• Guidance now leans on one quarter. Nine-month adjusted revenue was $323.4 million, down 23.0% from $420.0 million (results release, 11 November 2026). That is under half of the $650 million low end. Hitting it requires the largest quarter of the year by a wide margin, and that quarter depends on deliveries and milestone payments.
• Gross margin fell. Q3 gross margin was 54%, down from 69% a year earlier, as license and other revenue fell 34.4% to $53.2 million (results release, 11 November 2026).
• Shareholders were diluted once already in 2026. Alvotech sold 22,666,667 shares at $3.75 and placed another 17,826,666 privately, according to its 15 June 2026 prospectus supplement. It also borrowed $113.7 million of new debt in the nine months (results release, 11 November 2026).
• The Q3 report missed estimates. News headlines on 11 November 2026 reported a loss of $0.23 per share against a $0.07 estimate, and sales of $111.6 million against $119.0 million.
• The plant has failed before. Inspection findings at Reykjavik led to FDA rejections of AVT05, AVT06 and AVT03 in late 2025. A repeat would push U.S. revenue from both products into 2027.

Price setup

The shares closed at $4.92 on 11 November 2026, the session of the results release, which came after the close. That close is 24.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $6.53 set on 5 October 2026. Over three months the shares are up 20.3%, from a $4.09 close on 13 August 2026.

The 50-day moving average was $5.27 and the 200-day moving average was $4.19 as of 11 November 2026, from adjusted daily closes. The shares sit between the two, below the shorter average since the October high faded. The 52-week closing low is $3.00 on 2 June 2026, just before the June offering priced at $3.75.

In the six sessions from 4 November to 11 November 2026 the shares closed between $4.55 and $4.92. The first U.S. session after the results is 12 November 2026, and its move is not reflected in these closes. A move back above the 50-day average would put the shares on the path back toward the October high. The case turns on the FDA decisions and on any financing announced before them.

Catalysts ahead

• 17 November 2026: Alvotech management at the UBS Global Biopharma Conference in London. This is the first management appearance after the Q3 report. It is a likely venue for comment on FDA decision timing for AVT05 and AVT06 and on funding plans.
• 18 November 2026: Alvotech management at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference. This is a second chance for management to address the $61.5M cash balance and how Q4 deliveries and milestones reach the low end of 2026 guidance.
• ~4 December 2026 (est.): End of the six-month FDA review window for AVT05, AVT06 and AVT03, counted from the 4 June 2026 resubmissions. Approval of both AVT05 and AVT06 would challenge the lag call. A manufacturing-related rejection or a delay would confirm it. The company has said only Q4 2026.
• ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of Q4 2026: AVT06 U.S. launch window under the Eylea settlement and expected AVT05 patent ruling. A Teva launch of AVT06 starts U.S. revenue. Without a launch or a favorable AVT05 ruling by quarter-end, the U.S. revenue recovery moves into 2027.
• 10 March 2027: Q4 and full-year 2026 results, with a call on 11 March 2027. This report shows whether 2026 revenue reached the $650M low end of guidance and how much cash the company had at year-end.

What would change the view

A weekly close above $5.30, over the 50-day moving average of $5.27 as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading again. FDA approval of both AVT05 and AVT06 with no new share offering would also show the call wrong.

What it trades with

The shares trade mainly on company-specific regulatory and financing news, with little link to the S&P 500. U.S. revenue from AVT05, AVT06 and AVT80 runs through Teva, so Teva's launch commentary bears directly on Alvotech. Swedish depositary receipts on Nasdaq Stockholm can react to news released during European hours before the U.S. open. With borrowings above $1.3 billion, credit market conditions affect how Alvotech can refinance or raise new money. Other makers of Eylea biosimilars face the same U.S. pricing and uptake questions, so their launch results carry over to AVT06.