MGM · MGM Resorts International

The thesis

MGM Resorts International is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) fell to $403 million from $506 million, and the Nevada Gaming Control Board's October report, due in late November, is the first outside test of management's claim that October "rebounded favorably."

The shares closed at $33.24 on 12 November 2026. That is 24.6% below the close three months earlier and 35.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $51.59 on 1 June 2026. The price already reflects the earnings drop and the end of the takeover story: People Inc. withdrew its $48.30 cash proposal on 23 September 2026, and the shares now trade on operating results.

The rebound from the 52-week closing low of $27.27 (28 October 2026, the day of the third-quarter report) is two weeks old. Strip revenue fell 2% and Strip adjusted EBITDAR (which adds back rent) fell 12% in the quarter, so the rebound rests on October results that are not yet public.

A director has bought heavily. Keith Meister's Form 4, filed 3 November 2026, shows an open-market purchase of 1,745,592 shares at an average of $29.64 between 30 October 2026 and 2 November 2026. A 11 November 2026 headline put the purchase at $52 million.

Bullish and bearish views on MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL

The bull case on MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL (MGM), in brief: net loss narrowed sharply. The bear case: earnings fell in every US segment.

Bull case

• Net loss narrowed sharply. The third-quarter net loss attributable to MGM was $17 million against $285 million a year earlier, per the 28 October 2026 earnings release. Consolidated revenue was $4.21 billion, down 1%.
• Management says October improved. CEO Bill Hornbuckle said lower room rates hurt the quarter and that "October has rebounded favorably." The Nevada Gaming Control Board reported September Strip gaming win of $693.5 million, up 0.82% from a year earlier.
• A director added at lower prices. Keith Meister bought 1,745,592 shares at an average of $29.64 on 30 October to 2 November 2026, per SEC Form 4 filed 3 November 2026. Executive Form 4 filings on 8 October 2026 show only option exercises with shares withheld for tax.
• MGM China is gaining share. Revenue rose 5% to $1.14 billion with a record 17.1% market share in the third quarter, per the release.
• BetMGM improved. BetMGM North America adjusted EBITDA rose 112% to $86 million in the third quarter, and the venture kept its full-year guidance, per the release.
• The balance sheet is firmer. Cash was $2.40 billion and net long-term debt $5.67 billion at 30 September 2026, against $6.23 billion at year-end 2025. Shares outstanding fell to 251.6 million from 258.3 million.
• Several brokers keep targets above the price. After the report, JPMorgan cut its target to $39, Truist to $40 and Argus to $40, and Macquarie holds $46, all above the $33.24 close.

Bear case

• Earnings fell in every US segment. Strip adjusted EBITDAR was $531 million against $601 million a year earlier. Regional operations' adjusted EBITDAR fell 18% to $243 million, and same-store EBITDAR fell 7%, per the release.
• Margins compressed. The news site g3newswire reported that the Strip margin fell from 30.3% to 27.2% on lower room rates.
• Adjusted earnings per share turned negative. Press summaries of the release report an adjusted loss of $0.11 per share against earnings of $0.24 a year earlier.
• Targets keep coming down. Stifel cut to $35, Barclays to $34 and Wells Fargo to $28 on 29 October 2026 or 30 October 2026. Susquehanna cut to $39 from $41 on 2 November 2026, and Argus lowered to $40 on 5 November 2026.
• Macau is shrinking. Gross gaming revenue was MOP21.68 billion in October, down 10% from a year earlier and the fifth straight monthly decline, per the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. MGM China segment adjusted EBITDAR fell to $264 million from $284 million in the third quarter.
• A large holder remains. People Inc. holds 66.8 million MGM shares, about 27%, per its 23 September 2026 Schedule 13D/A. A sale would add supply.

Price setup

The shares closed at $33.24 on 12 November 2026, above the 50-day average of closes at $32.98 and below the 200-day average of closes. The 3-month change is –24.6%.

The recent range is narrow. Closes ran from $32.34 on 6 November 2026 to $33.47 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week closing low of $27.27 on 28 October 2026 marks where the shares sat on the day of the third-quarter report.

A close back under the 50-day average would put the shares inside the post-report range again. Reaching the 200-day average would take a gain of more than 17% from the last close.

Catalysts ahead

• ~25 November 2026 (est.): Nevada Gaming Control Board October gaming-revenue report; release day unconfirmed. Management said October rebounded. A year-over-year rise in Las Vegas Strip gaming win would be the first outside check of that claim; a fall would weaken it.
• 1 December 2026: Macau November gross gaming revenue from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. Another fall would make six straight monthly declines and weigh on MGM China earnings; a rise would end the run.
• ~February 2027 (est.): MGM fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. The first quarter that includes the October rebound; it shows whether Strip revenue and adjusted EBITDAR stop falling from a year earlier.

What would change the view

A daily close above $38.97, the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A Strip gaming win in Nevada's October report that clearly beats the prior year would also show the case failing.

What it trades with

MGM moves with Las Vegas peers such as Caesars and Wynn on Nevada gaming data and room-rate commentary. MGM China links it to Macau operators and the monthly Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau release. BetMGM links it to online-betting names and to Entain's reporting. People Inc. filings and statements have moved the shares since 23 September 2026.