MDB · MongoDB
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $393.44
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
15.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $393.44, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 23.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $393.44, the 28 October 2026 close and the top of the late-October rebound, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a permanent CEO appointment alongside a raised fiscal 2027 revenue outlook would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 1 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 772
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +30.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 73.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 3.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 659
- Price to earnings (×)
- 457.1
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 2.4
All filed numbers
What MongoDB reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 772 | +30.5 | 73.8 | 3.7 |
| first filed | 688 | +25.2 | 72.2 | −3.6 |
| first filed | 695 | +26.7 | 73.0 | 0.0 |
| first filed | 628 | +18.7 | 71.5 | −2.9 |
| first filed | 591 | +23.7 | 71.0 | −11.0 |
| first filed | 549 | +21.9 | 71.2 | −9.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 45.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 58.9 | 40.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | +1.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 667 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 7.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 659 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,411 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +44.8% on a year | 448 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +91.3% on a year | 1,519 |
| Receivables ($M) | 458 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,980 |
| Market value ($M) | 26,922 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 457.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 2.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.4 days of average trading to cover, −5.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $13.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $115.2M |
The thesis
MongoDB's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The cloud-database business grew 30% in the last reported quarter, but the company has had no permanent CEO since 28 September 2026, and the shares have not recovered the level they held before that exit. The third-quarter fiscal 2027 report on 1 December 2026 is the next test, and a permanent appointment could come at any time.
The shares closed at $339.78 on 12 November 2026. That is 28.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $473.10 set on 14 August 2026, and the price is down 26.2% over three months in adjusted daily closes. The close is up from $304.59 on 5 November 2026, a rebound that company news does not tie to any company event.
The open question is still leadership. Dev Ittycheria has been interim president and CEO since 28 September 2026, when CJ Desai left for Meta, and the board has named no permanent successor or timetable. The most recent company facts are BTIG's Buy initiation on 10 November 2026 and directors' sales under preset trading plans in October and on 2 November 2026.
The rating is Low because the operating case is already known and priced: the 1 September 2026 results and the 29 September 2026 investor-day targets are public, and the stock still trades below its 50-day average. A lead over the index needs a new fact, such as a permanent CEO the market accepts or a third-quarter report that lifts the full-year outlook by more than the usual beat.
Bullish and bearish views on MongoDB, Inc.
The bull case on MongoDB, Inc. (MDB), in brief: growth was strong before the exit. The bear case: the CEO left within a year.
Bull case
- Growth was strong before the exit. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $771.8 million, up 30% from a year earlier, and free cash flow was $137.6 million (company release, 1 September 2026).
- Guidance was reaffirmed after the exit. The company reaffirmed its third-quarter and full-year fiscal 2027 guidance when it announced the CEO transition on 28 September 2026. Third-quarter revenue guidance is $756–761 million.
- A new analyst starts with a Buy. BTIG initiated coverage on 10 November 2026 with a Buy rating and a $417 target, citing expected revenue growth above 20% over the next few years (Investing.com).
- Buyback authorization doubled. The board added $1 billion on 29 September 2026, taking the total repurchase authorization to $2 billion (company announcement).
- The shares sit above the long-term average. The 12 November 2026 close of $339.78 is above the 200-day moving average of $334.49 in adjusted daily closes.
Bear case
- The CEO left within a year. Desai departed on 28 September 2026 after less than a year in the role (company release). Ittycheria ran the company from 2014 to 2025, but the leader for the next several years is still unknown.
- Analysts cut targets after the exit. On 30 September 2026, BMO cut its target to $420 from $450, DA Davidson to $415 from $465 and Stifel to $385 from $465.
- Directors kept selling into the rebound. Director Dwight Merriman sold 19,275 shares at an average $348.08 on 2 November 2026 and 14,000 shares at an average $361.17 on 8 October 2026 and 9 October 2026, all under a Rule 10b5-1 preset trading plan (SEC Form 4 filings).
- Guidance implies slower growth. The $756–761 million third-quarter guide from 1 September 2026 sits below the $771.8 million reported for the second quarter. The investor-day target of 29 September 2026 puts Atlas, the cloud database service, at mid-20% growth over three years.
- The search has no timetable. The board retained an executive search firm on 28 September 2026 and has named no date for an appointment.
Price setup
The shares closed at $339.78 on 12 November 2026, between the 50-day moving average of $365.91 and the 200-day moving average of $334.49 in adjusted daily closes. The close is 28.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $473.10 from 14 August 2026 and well above the 52-week closing low of $225.95 from 10 April 2026.
The five sessions from 5 November to 12 November 2026 lifted the close from $304.59 to $339.78. The late-October rebound peaked at a close on 28 October 2026, and the shares remain below it and below the 50-day average. A close back over the 50-day average would put the shares above the level the market has averaged since the CEO exit.
Director sales on 2 November 2026 were made between $339.90 and $351.19, close to the current price (SEC Form 4). The third-quarter report on 1 December 2026 falls after the US market close, so the first reaction comes in the 2 December 2026 session.
Catalysts ahead
- 1 December 2026: Third-quarter fiscal 2027 results and earnings call, after the US market close. The first full quarter under interim leadership, against guided revenue of $756–761 million; a lifted full-year outlook would weaken the lag call, and a guide held flat would support it.
- Not scheduled: Board names a permanent CEO. Leadership is the main open item since the 28 September 2026 exit; a well-received appointment would remove the main reason the shares trail, and the board has given no timetable.
What would change the view
A daily close above $393.44, the 28 October 2026 close and the top of the late-October rebound, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a permanent CEO appointment alongside a raised fiscal 2027 revenue outlook would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
MongoDB trades with enterprise software and cloud-infrastructure names, because Atlas revenue follows application usage on the public clouds. The main moves of the past three months were company-specific: the 1 September 2026 results and the 28 September 2026 CEO exit. The rebound from 5 November 2026 has no named company cause in company news, so it may reflect wider software buying more than anything particular to MongoDB.
The evidence, claim by claim (6)
- MongoDB reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $771.8 million, up 30% from a year earlier, and free cash flow of $137.6 million. MongoDB second-quarter fiscal 2027 results release · as of
- CEO Chirantan (CJ) Desai left to join Meta; Dev Ittycheria returned as interim president and CEO, the board retained an executive search firm, and the company reaffirmed its third-quarter and full-year guidance. MongoDB press release 'MongoDB Announces CEO Transition' · as of
- The board authorized an additional $1 billion of share repurchases, bringing the total authorization to $2 billion. MongoDB announcement · as of
- BTIG initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $417 price target, citing expected revenue growth above 20% over the next few years. Investing.com, BTIG initiation · as of
- Director Dwight Merriman sold 19,275 shares at an average $348.08 on 2 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 4 November 2026 · as of
- MongoDB scheduled its third-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings call for 1 December 2026 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. MongoDB press release via Finviz · as of
Sources
- Finviz
- BTIG initiates MongoDB stock coverage with buy rating on AI tailwinds · uk.investing.com
- MongoDB CEO Transition: Former CEO Dev Ittycheria Returns as Interim Leader · panabee.com
- Should You Buy The Dip In MongoDB Stock? · trefis.com ·
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