Stocks · Theme
Critical materials & rare earth stocks · 12 research notes
12 Critical materials & rare earths stocks with a dated research note: thesis, kill line and next catalyst.
Earlier themeNot among the research's active themes (last active 6 September 2026). Each stock's note below is dated on its own.
All 12 have a dated research note with a published kill line: the note's own test, stated in advance, of what would prove it wrong: a price level, a business fact, or both.
All stocksLACLithium AmericasLow Lithium Americas' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because its 11 November 2026 Thacker Pass cost increase of $900 million to $3.83 billion adds to funding needs while dilution continues; year-end 2026 power energization and final…MPMP MaterialsLow MP Materials shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because General Motors magnet volumes start small and analysts keep cutting targets. The expected Trump–Xi meeting at APEC on 18 November 2026 and fourth-quarter…USARUSA Rare EarthLow USA Rare Earth shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because third-quarter revenue fell to $3.0 million and the gross loss widened to $19.9 million. The company's goal of magnet sales to multiple customers by the end…AXTIAXTMedium AXT, Inc.'s indium-phosphide substrate demand (record $73.41M quarter, about $90M guided for Q4) favors the shares over three months; Q4 shipments and Lumentum's orders after the Marvell deal settle it.ELVRElevra LithiumMedium Elevra Lithium's September-quarter report showed sales above production, lower unit costs and the Ewoyaa sale closed, and the shares have bounced to $27.85 from a $21.96 closing low; the December-quarter report decides whether the recovery…MTRNMaterionMedium Materion's record backlog (up about 35% from a year earlier) and raised $7.10–$7.40 earnings guidance make the shares modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months; the fourth-quarter report, estimated for 24 February 2027,…ARECAmerican ResourcesLow American Resources Corporation, a former coal producer pivoting to critical minerals, is more likely to lag the S&P 500: two quarterly reports are overdue and the 16 November 2026 Nasdaq filing deadline settles the case.IPXIperionXLow IperionX's titanium-powder output rose to 8.7 tons in the September quarter, but it reported no fiscal 2026 revenue and Titan mine financing is unsecured, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the cash report due around 30…LARLithium ArgentinaLow Lithium Argentina is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its third-quarter realized lithium price of $17,580 per tonne fell below the $18,000 Stage 2 base case. The year-end PPG approval target and the 15 January 2027 note…PPTAPerpetua ResourcesLow Perpetua Resources' case rests on closing its $2.9 billion EXIM loan and announcing a construction decision by 31 December 2026; the mid-November third-quarter report is the next check on cash, and no closing has been announced.TMCTMC the metalsLow TMC the metals company's nodule case hinges on NOAA certifying its USA-A application, which NOAA estimates for mid-December 2026; with no revenue and cash falling, the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months until that…UUUUEnergy FuelsLow Energy Fuels' rare-earth expansion is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months after the 4 November 2026 revenue miss and a heavy rare-earth delay to early 2028; the Donald financing decision targeted by 31 December 2026 settles it.