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Research through the 18 September 2026 close

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Critical materials & rare earths theme · 36 dossiers

Dossiers in the Critical materials & rare earths theme cluster — 36 names moving on shared catalysts.

Theme runProduced by the theme run on 6 September 2026, maturing.

All 36 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.

All dossiers
EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation MEDIUM Eldorado Gold’s Skouries expansion thesis now hinges on fourth-quarter 2026 commercial production after first concentrate on September 8. Delivery before a weekly close below $40 would validate the case; a delay into 2027 would contradict… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. MEDIUM Fortuna Mining’s gold-supported cash generation funds its mine-growth story, but the September 11 retreat weakens the recovery case. A weekly close above $13.66 before a weekly close below $11.00 would confirm the equity thesis. Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · IAG IAMGold Corporation MEDIUM IAMGOLD’s margin-expansion case depends on Côté lowering costs as gold support weakens. Q3 all-in sustaining costs within the published $2,000–$2,150 per-ounce range and retained annual production guidance would confirm the case before a… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · SSRM SSR Mining Inc. MEDIUM SSR Mining’s post-divestiture re-rating rests on cash and repurchases, with weaker momentum after the 2026-09-04 jobs report. A weekly close above the $39.21 market high would confirm the case before a weekly close below $33 invalidates it. Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. fresh LOW Coeur Mining’s cash-backed repair thesis requires price recovery and confirmation that reduced production guidance holds. A weekly close above the September $21.24 reference and reaffirmed guidance at the next quarterly report would… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · MP MP Materials Corp. fresh LOW MP Materials' domestic-magnet recovery failed its $50 weekly-close test on 2026-09-18; Q4 2026 General Motors shipments remain the unresolved operating test. Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · ELE Elemental Royalty Corporation HIGH Elemental Royalty Corporation’s royalty-growth case turns on completing Vizsla by 2026-09-30 with GEO guidance intact. The 2026-09-08 Mexican clearance advances that case; a weekly close below $19.00 or a missed closing window invalidates… Cyclical recovery · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · ALM Almonty Industries Inc. fresh MEDIUM Non-China tungsten narrative now trades on one venue: the TSX exit took effect 2026-07-31 and the ASX removal 2026-09-01, leaving Nasdaq and Frankfurt. The operating case is unchanged — Sangdong throughput since 2026-07-01, Q2 revenue… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths · Defense & aerospace analysed · ARIS Aris Mining Corporation MEDIUM Aris Mining’s expansion case depends on Marmato producing first gold in Q4 2026 with annual production guidance intact. Company confirmation before a weekly close below $17.50 would establish the near-term commissioning leg; first gold… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · AYA Aya Gold & Silver Inc. fresh MEDIUM Aya Gold & Silver's production-growth thesis requires Q3 Zgounder output above 1.49 million silver ounces and processing above 3,889 tonnes per day. Boumadine's September 9 study strengthens the development case, but a weekly close below… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · BTU Peabody Energy Corporation MEDIUM Peabody Energy’s Centurion recovery depends on higher production becoming shipments and positive metallurgical earnings. Third-quarter sales meeting management’s 0.5–0.7 million-ton range and positive segment adjusted EBITDA would… Special situation · Oil, energy & geopolitical · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · OOMA Ooma, Inc. MEDIUM Ooma’s business-communications roll-up faces a September 29 test of its raised $332.0–333.5 million fiscal 2027 revenue outlook. Sustained guidance and a subsequent weekly close above the September 11 reference high of $23.38 would confirm… Special situation · GPU cloud & neoclouds · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · SCZM Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. fresh MEDIUM Santacruz Silver's producer re-rating rests on deferred concentrate sales becoming revenue and added milling capacity reaching production. Q3 shipment disclosure and management's 2026-12-31 commercial-production milestone settle those… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. LOW Agnico Eagle Mines’ gold-driven cash generation supports a recovery case, tested by the September 16 Fed decision. A weekly close above the market’s August 28 reference close of $206.25 establishes recovery before a weekly close below $199… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · AREC American Resources Corporation LOW American Resources Corporation’s critical-minerals refining thesis breached its published $2.40 weekly price test on 2026-09-11. Recovery above that level and filed evidence of commercial value reaching the parent would be needed to… Cyclical recovery · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · AU AngloGold Ashanti plc fresh LOW AngloGold Ashanti’s gold-margin rally thesis failed when its 2026-09-18 weekly close of $103.29 breached $105. A separate recovery case requires a weekly close back above $105 and production confirmation at the 2026-11-05 results. Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · AUGO Aura Minerals Inc. fresh LOW Gold/copper producer basing $53–$76 under a broken ~$72 shelf after a ~45% fall from the $110 high. Q2 output slipped 8% QoQ — first sequential drop after a record Q1 — as gold cools to the low-$4,000s and sell-side keeps trimming (JPM to… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · DRD DRDGOLD Ltd. fresh LOW DRDGOLD’s gold-margin and processing-expansion thesis lost its published price support when the 2026-09-18 close breached $27.50. The continuation case is invalidated; a renewed expansion case requires completed commissioning and reported… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · ERO Ero Copper Corp. fresh LOW Ero Copper's copper-growth re-rating now depends on operating delivery after its September 14 strategy update. A weekly close at or above the prior $40.40 high before a weekly close below $33.80 would establish that the recovery case… Cyclical recovery · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. LOW Endeavour Silver’s Terronera ramp supports a silver operating-leverage thesis that requires Q3 cost confirmation. The case needs Q3 2026 all-in sustaining cost at or below $30 per silver ounce with annual $27–28 guidance retained before a… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · FRD Friedman Industries Inc. LOW Tariff-driven HRC steel prices at multi-year highs powered record FY2026 (EPS $2.76, sales +46%); FRD hit an all-time-high close $37.42 on 2026-06-18 and was flagged overbought the same day. The narrative is maturing and priced near the… Defensive · Cyclical industrials · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · GFI Gold Fields Ltd ADR fresh LOW Margin-to-cash story intact from H1 (2026-08-25: $2.225bn adjusted FCF, dividend +132%, realised $4,678/oz), but the macro leg inverted on 2026-09-04 when 162k August payrolls against ~53k expected pushed September hike odds to roughly 65%… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. LOW Warrior Met Coal’s Blue Creek ramp supports a cash-generation thesis, but price confirmation requires a weekly close above $110.18 before a weekly close below $95. Third-quarter results must sustain the sales outlook without further… Defensive · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · HL Hecla Mining Company LOW Hecla Mining Company's silver-margin story now hinges on recovering the 2026-09-03 close of $21.21. A weekly close above $21.21 completes the recovery case; a weekly close below $19 invalidates it. Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited fresh LOW Harmony Gold’s cash-return thesis failed when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $19.92 breached its published $20 threshold. The declared October dividend remains a catalyst, but it cannot reverse that recorded invalidation. Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · IPX IperionX Limited fresh LOW US critical-minerals sovereignty name whose funding overhang cleared the ugly way: a 2026-07-08 US$50M ADS raise priced at $21.98, ~22% below the ~$28 pre-deal level, resetting the stock to $22.94 near its $21.66 52-week low. Pre-revenue,… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths · Defense & aerospace catalyst · KODK Eastman Kodak Company fresh LOW Eastman Kodak's materials pivot needs Q3 to repeat Q2's $105 million segment revenue and 26% consolidated gross margin before a weekly close below $9.20 breaks the recovery thesis. The September momentum improvement does not resolve… Special situation · Cyclical industrials · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · LAC Lithium Americas Corp. fresh LOW Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass recovery thesis failed when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $2.86 breached the published $3.00 shelf. A reclaim and the next construction update would support reassessment; JPMorgan’s September 9 endorsement… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · LAR Lithium Argentina AG fresh LOW Commodity transmission is now broken in both directions: the GFEX front carbonate quote came off to ~CNY 152,000/t on 2026-09-04 from CNY 156,140/t on 2026-08-22 while the shares went $6.83 to $6.79. The saturated lithium-recovery story… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · MTRN Materion Corporation LOW Beryllium critical-materials scarcity narrative still building, but the parabola cracked: a new ATH of $298.76 in early July gave way to a 5.6% reversal on 2026-07-07 to $247.20, now ~$258 and still ~9% above KeyBanc's $237 top target. The… Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths · Defense & aerospace analysed · PCT PureCycle Technologies, Inc. fresh LOW Post-dilution repair story: the June 10–15 raise (~$145M equity + $287.5M 4.75% converts, ~$11.08 conv) roughly halved the stock to ~$8 while the commercial ramp (Q1 record 8.4M-lb output, +161% revenue) held. The 2026-07-15 Mitsui/RM… Retail squeeze · Critical materials & rare earths · Squeeze & momentum setups catalyst · PPTA Perpetua Resources Corp. fresh LOW Perpetua Resources’ domestic-antimony financing thesis requires definitive loan documentation and a final construction decision by 2026-12-31. The case fails first if a weekly close below $21 breaches the retained market boundary. Compounder · Cyclical industrials · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · RBLX Roblox Corporation fresh LOW Broken growth compounder: the age-verification rollout throttled DAUs and forced FY26 bookings guidance down to +8-12%; stock is -66% from its $150 high and below the 200-day. The 2026-07-30 Q2 print is the binary — it needs a DAU… Earnings inflection · AI enterprise software · Critical materials & rare earths analysed · SBSW Sibanye-Stillwater fresh LOW Sibanye-Stillwater's lower debt supports a metals-led recovery toward RBC's September 16 target of $15, conditional on no weekly close below $11.50. The September 18 palladium quote of $1,283 per ounce weakens the strike-premium argument. Compounder · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · TMC TMC the metals company Inc. fresh LOW The deep-sea-mining reshoring leg is broken: TMC has cut through the $3.93 prior 52-week low to a fresh $3.57 low near $3.74, roughly -67% from the $11.35 high, with no bid and no near-term catalyst. The decisive NOAA license decision is… Earnings inflection · Bitcoin miners · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst · UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. LOW Two sell-side target raises in consecutive sessions — HC Wainwright's $29.25 on 2026-09-01 and Cantor Fitzgerald's $33 reiteration on 2026-09-02 — moved the shares less than 1%, to a $14.29 close 48.4% under the 52-week high. With rare… Compounder · Nuclear & uranium · Critical materials & rare earths catalyst ·
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