TMC · TMC the metals
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $3.29
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
29.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $3.29, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 38.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $3.29, over the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; NOAA certifying the USA-A application ahead of its mid-December 2026 estimate would show the same.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
The business · as of
TMC the metals company is developing polymetallic nodules on the Pacific seabed as a source of nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese, to be sold to battery and metals buyers. It has no revenue; the net loss was $28 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 12 November 2026 TMC reported that NOAA now expects to decide on certification of the USA-A application by mid-December 2026, after management's earlier October estimate.
- What follows for the company
- Operating cash use was $19.4 million in the third quarter and cash fell to $79.3 million at 30 September 2026; exploration and evaluation expense rose to $23.5 million.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Allseas, the offshore contractor, is private. Two U.S. agencies are weighing support for the Brownsville plant; TMCR, the royalty vehicle, is separate. No listed peer is named in filings.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 12 November 2026) the shares carry a market value of $1,019 million and an enterprise value of $921 million, with P/E and EV/EBIT not meaningful and a free-cash-flow yield of −5.1%; that holds only if NOAA certifies, a permit follows and first nodule revenue arrives.
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −51.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 98.7
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −5.1
All filed numbers
What TMC the metals reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −28.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −150 | −28.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +8.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −51.5 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −51.7 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 79.3 |
| Debt ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 13 August 2026; credit line | 0.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 13 August 2026 | 98.7 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −43.7 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,019 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 921 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −5.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.8 days of average trading to cover, +15.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0and 1 trade without a stated price | $2.4M |
The thesis
TMC the metals company is a pre-revenue deep-sea nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese developer, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The event that settles it is NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, certifying the USA-A application, a decision NOAA now expects by mid-December 2026 after management's October window passed.
TMC's third-quarter 2026 report, released after the close on 12 November 2026, left that timetable in place. Per Investing.com's summary of the update, NOAA cited over 1,600 public comments to review and said its letter "does not identify any issue or deficiency with the application." The Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act sets no mandatory deadline, and certification is an eligibility step before an environmental impact statement and a final permit, not a permit.
The shares closed at $2.31 on 13 November 2026, the first session after the report, and are down 38.7% over three months. That close is 77.0% below the intraday 52-week high of $10.05 set on 22 January 2026. The price already reflects a permit that has slipped from the first-quarter 2027 date management cited before 13 August 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on TMC the metals company Inc.
The bull case on TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC), in brief: NOAA has flagged no deficiency. The bear case: certification has slipped again.
Bull case
- NOAA has flagged no deficiency. NOAA found the USA-A application in full compliance on 28 April 2026 and certified the separate USA-B exploration application on 26 May 2026, per TMC's 13 August 2026 update. Its November letter, as reported on 12 November 2026, names no issue with the application.
- Government funding talks are active. TMC said on 12 November 2026 that two U.S. agencies are considering financial support for its Brownsville, Texas processing plant. The company plans no other capital market transactions until one or more of these processes completes.
- Cash covers twelve months, by management's account. At 30 September 2026 TMC held $79.3 million of cash, no financial debt and about $123 million of liquidity including credit facilities, per its third-quarter update. Management said cash is sufficient for at least the next twelve months.
- The loss narrowed. The third-quarter 2026 net loss was $28.4 million, or $0.06 per share, in line with the $0.06 consensus estimate reported by Investing.com. The second-quarter loss of $60.1 million included $37.2 million of settlement costs owed to Allseas.
- An analyst keeps a Buy. HC Wainwright maintained its Buy rating on 13 November 2026 and lowered its price target to $5.50, per the published headline. That target is more than double the 13 November 2026 close.
Bear case
- Certification has slipped again. TMC said on 13 August 2026 that certification was expected in October 2026. NOAA's letter of 3 November 2026 moved the decision to mid-December, and the Act sets no deadline.
- Little slack remains before commissioning. The CEO said on 12 November 2026 that TMC could hold the permit "by this time next year", per the update summary. That is the same quarter as the offshore commissioning target of the fourth quarter of 2027.
- Cash and liquidity are falling. Cash was $98.7 million at 30 June 2026 and $79.3 million at 30 September 2026; liquidity fell from about $143 million to about $123 million, per TMC's filings. Operating cash use was $19.4 million in the third quarter, and exploration and evaluation expense rose to $23.5 million from $9.6 million a year earlier.
- Equity funding is only paused. An automatic Form S-3ASR registration statement has been effective since 31 March 2026. The no-raise pledge lasts only until a government funding process completes, and no agency award has been announced. The diluted share count rose 8.8% from a year earlier in the quarter to 30 September 2026.
- Balance sheet equity is negative. Equity was −$44 million at 30 September 2026, and free cash flow over the four quarters to that date was −$52 million, per the 10-Q filed 12 November 2026.
- The analyst target was cut. HC Wainwright's lower target of $5.50 on 13 November 2026 follows the report; the firm's headline shows a reduction, which signals less confidence in the near-term path.
Price setup
The shares closed at $2.31 on 13 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $2.07, set on 5 November 2026. The closes since then ran $2.27 on 6 November 2026, $2.62 on 9 November 2026, $2.42 on 10 November 2026, $2.46 on 11 November 2026, $2.30 on 12 November 2026 and $2.31 on 13 November 2026. The rebound to $2.62 reversed within three sessions.
As of 13 November 2026 the 50-day average of closes is $3.21 and the 200-day average is $4.62, so the shares trade below both. The 3-month reference close was $3.77 on 17 August 2026.
SEC Form 4 filings show two director share awards (Liam Mallon, 103,165 shares, 25 September to 28 September 2026; Andrew Hall, 72,935 shares, 11 September 2026) and no open-market insider sales.
Catalysts ahead
- ~15 December 2026 (est.): NOAA's estimated final decision on certification of the USA-A application. A certification notice would restore the permitting path toward an environmental impact statement; another delay would extend spending with no permit date.
What would change the view
A daily close above $3.29, over the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; NOAA certifying the USA-A application ahead of its mid-December 2026 estimate would show the same.
What it trades with
TMC trades on its own regulatory news more than on sector moves. The resource is polymetallic nodules (nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese), so nickel and cobalt prices and U.S. critical-minerals policy shape the long-run economics. TMCR, a separately listed royalty vehicle, does not carry parent nodule economics.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net loss $28.4 million ($0.06 per share); operating cash used $19.4 million; cash $79.3 million, no financial debt, liquidity about $123 million. TMC third-quarter 2026 corporate update, 12 November 2026 · as of
- NOAA expects to give its final decision on USA-A certification by mid-December 2026, citing over 1,600 public comments; its letter identifies no deficiency in the application. TMC third-quarter 2026 corporate update, via InvestingNews · as of
- Two U.S. agencies are considering financial support for the Brownsville plant; TMC plans no other capital market transactions until a funding process completes. TMC third-quarter 2026 corporate update, via InvestingNews · as of
- Cash was $98.7 million at 30 June 2026, total liquidity about $143 million, operating cash used $20.1 million, net loss $60.1 million ($0.14 per share). TMC Form 8-K, second-quarter 2026 corporate update · as of
- NOAA held a virtual public hearing on the USA-A application on 13 October 2026 and closed written comments on 19 October 2026. NOAA Federal Register notice 2026-16869 · as of
- Free cash flow was −$52 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026; equity was −$44 million; the diluted share count rose 8.8% from a year earlier. TMC 10-Q for the period ended 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- HC Wainwright maintained a Buy rating and lowered its price target to $5.50. Analyst-rating headline, 13 November 2026 · as of
- Closed at $2.31 on 13 November 2026; 52-week closing low $2.07 on 5 November 2026; 3-month change −38.7%; 50-day average $3.21; 200-day average $4.62. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- TMC Provides Third Quarter 2026 Corporate Update · investingnews.com ·
- Earnings call transcript: The Metals Company meets Q3 2026 EPS forecast · investing.com
- NOAA to decide on TMC the metals Co Inc. permit application by mid-December · investing.com
- NOAA advances review of first-ever deep seabed mining commercial recovery application · noaa.gov
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