TMC · TMC the metals company Inc.

Current Thesis

The Metals Company's U.S. permitting story needs USA-A application certification and a weekly recovery above the previously identified $5.00 shelf to validate a recovery; a weekly close below the previously reported $3.57 August low breaks that case. These are research conditions carried forward from the 2026-09-06 dossier, not evidence that a recovery has begun.

The measured change is weaker price structure: the adjusted daily close was $3.78 on 2026-09-18, compared with the $4.44 close recorded for 2026-09-04. The September 18 observations show a three-month decline of 23.6% and a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 19.3. As an inference, the narrative is maturing — the permitting milestones announced on 2026-08-19 remain the story, while the September 18 price observations provide no confirmation of renewed momentum.

The scheduled 2026-09-16 USA-B environmental-scoping comment deadline has passed. The next documented USA-A milestones are the October hearing and comment deadline; neither constitutes a commercial recovery permit. The distinction matters because TMC's 2026-08-19 release identifies no mandatory statutory deadline for completion of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) review. TMC release filed with the SEC

Bullish and bearish views on TMC the metals company Inc.

The model's bull view on TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC), in brief: The commercial application has dated milestones. The bear view: The market has not confirmed progress. On 2026-09-18, the adjusted $3.78 close stood 64.6% below the supplied $10.69 trailing-year high. The regulatory headlines have not produced a recovery above the $5.00 shelf identified in the September 6 research. Certification does not… Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• The commercial application has dated milestones. NOAA's 2026-08-19 notice schedules a USA-A public hearing for 2026-10-13 and written comments through 2026-10-19. These establish observable progress checks for the permitting case. NOAA notice
• Reported liquidity supports ongoing development. TMC's 2026-08-13 corporate update reported $98.7 million of cash at June 30 and approximately $143 million of total liquidity including credit facilities. Those are historical resources; a subsequent financing requirement or higher operating cash use would weaken the funding argument. Second-quarter update

Bear Case

• The market has not confirmed progress. On 2026-09-18, the adjusted $3.78 close stood 64.6% below the supplied $10.69 trailing-year high. The regulatory headlines have not produced a recovery above the $5.00 shelf identified in the September 6 research.
• Certification does not authorize production. TMC's 2026-08-13 update describes certification as an intermediate eligibility determination. A certified application still leaves the final license or permit unresolved. Second-quarter update
• Development consumes cash before revenue. The 2026-08-13 update reported second-quarter operating cash use of $20.1 million and exploration expense of $56.1 million, compared with $10.5 million of exploration expense in the prior-year quarter. These measures are distinct; exploration expense is not a substitute for cash burn. Second-quarter update

Setup & Price Structure

The 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $3.78 remains above the $3.57 August low reported in the September 6 dossier and below its $5.00 recovery shelf. The latest supplied RSI reading of 19.3 measures weak recent momentum; it does not establish a reversal. A weekly close above $5.00 would satisfy the price component of the recovery case, while a weekly close below $3.57 would invalidate it.

Crowding remains unmeasured. The September 18 observations include price momentum but no contemporaneous short-interest, options-positioning, ownership-flow or moving-average series. They cannot establish either a crowded speculative bid or forced liquidation. The upcoming October hearing is an observable event date, not evidence of positioning.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• 2026-10-13 — USA-A public hearing. NOAA's 2026-08-19 notice schedules the virtual hearing for 3–5 p.m. Eastern Time. It provides an oral-comment checkpoint; an extension or additional hearing would be observable evidence of a longer process. NOAA notice
• 2026-10-19 — USA-A written comments close. This is the deadline published in NOAA's 2026-08-19 notice. Closing comments does not itself establish certification or permit issuance. NOAA notice
• 2026-10-31 — Management timing checkpoint. Beyond the next 30 days, October month-end tests the certification window attributed to the 2026-08-13 corporate update in the September 6 dossier. This is a research checkpoint for management's guidance, not a scheduled NOAA decision.

What Would Change Our Mind

Loss of the reported August low would end the remaining recovery case: a weekly close below $3.57 is the price invalidation. That condition uses the historical low identified in the 2026-09-06 dossier and the adjusted price series underlying the September 18 reference close.

The positive case would require both announced USA-A certification and a weekly close above the previously identified $5.00 shelf before that invalidation. No certification announcement by 2026-10-31 would separately invalidate the October-timing component. Certification alone would still leave commercial authorization unresolved, as TMC explained on 2026-08-13.

Correlation Notes

The resource described in TMC's 2026-05-28 release contains nickel, copper, cobalt and manganese, alongside reported rare earth elements. That composition does not establish that TMC tracks rare-earth equities. TMC USA-B release

This remains a single-company permitting setup. No paired return sample accompanies the 2026-09-18 price observations, so no measured correlation with metals prices or another equity group is established. The dated thesis tests are the USA-A process and TMC's own price structure.