Stocks · Archetype
Distinct case · 195 research notes
Stocks classified as Distinct case: 195 stocks, each with a dated research note: thesis, kill line and next catalyst.
All 195 have a dated research note with a published kill line: the note's own test, stated in advance, of what would prove it wrong: a price level, a business fact, or both.
All stocksETONEton PharmaceuticalsMedium Eton Pharmaceuticals is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months, after third-quarter revenue of $57.9 million, up 158%, lifted its 2026 guide above $175 million. The fourth-quarter report, expected around…KNSAKiniksa Pharmaceuticals InternationalMedium Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months on its third 2026 ARCALYST guidance raise, to $1.045–1.050 billion. Fourth-quarter sales and the first 2027 range, due in the early-2027 results…XERSXeris Biopharma HoldingsMedium Xeris Biopharma's shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because Recorlev sales rose 93% to $71.5 million in the third quarter and 2026 revenue guidance rose to $395–405 million. Preliminary…ADPTAdaptive BiotechnologiesMedium Adaptive Biotechnologies is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because clonoSEQ tests rose 46% in the third quarter of 2026 and MRD revenue guidance rose to $276–286 million. Medicare's final 2027 lab rates,…AMGNAmgenMedium Amgen is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because Repatha, Evenity and newer drugs are outgrowing biosimilar losses. The fourth-quarter report and 2027 outlook, expected in early February 2027, settle it.ARHSArhausMedium Arhaus's furniture orders are running far ahead of deliveries, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500: Q3 2026 comparable written sales rose 13.9% and client deposits reached $325.0 million. The Q4 2026 report, expected in late…AXGNAxogenMedium Axogen's nerve-repair revenue grew 26.2% last quarter and a $754 million prostate market sits outside guidance, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500; the Q4 2026 report settles whether revenue excluding BioCircuit reaches the…CHDNChurchill DownsMedium Churchill Downs' growing Kentucky machine profit, record third quarter and $750 million buyback outweigh its shrinking Virginia machine revenue; monthly state figures and the fourth-quarter report expected around 25 February 2027 decide…COAGHemab Therapeutics HoldingsMedium Hemab Therapeutics is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: its pivotal sutacimig trial has started and cash is guided into 2029. Updated Factor VII deficiency data at the ASH meeting on 14 December 2026 test…CSTLCastle BiosciencesMedium Castle Biosciences raised 2026 revenue guidance to $385–395 million and held its 50–52% TissueCypher volume growth plan; the fourth-quarter report, expected around 26 February 2027, shows whether that test offsets weaker melanoma volume.CVNACarvanaMedium Carvana is taking share in a flat used-car market, with third-quarter retail units up 39% and more units guided for the fourth quarter. The February 2027 report shows whether volume growth outruns falling profit per car.CVSCVS HealthMedium CVS Health is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: Aetna's costs improved and 2026 guidance rose, and the February 2027 report tests the 2027 outlook of at least $8.65 per share.DCTHDelcath SystemsMedium Delcath Systems' shares are more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 after third-quarter revenue of $35.1 million lifted 2026 guidance to $115–117 million on 9 November 2026; the full-year report, expected around March 2027, shows whether…DXCMDexComMedium Dexcom's raised 2026 outlook and 25.3% third-quarter operating margin give the shares a modest edge after a diabetes-device sell-off erased the post-report gain. A Medicare coverage decision for non-insulin type 2 diabetes, which…ECOOkeanis Eco TankersMedium Okeanis Eco Tankers is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500, as fourth-quarter bookings of 71% of fleet days at about $420,000 a day exceed its record third quarter. The February 2027 fourth-quarter report shows whether rates…EVEREverQuoteMedium EverQuote's third-quarter revenue of $218.1 million and adjusted EBITDA of $35.5 million beat the top of its guidance, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report shows whether profit holds within a lower…FIGSMedium FIGS, the healthcare-apparel maker, holds a modest edge over the S&P 500 after beating third-quarter estimates and raising its 2026 outlook on 5 November 2026, although its CEO sold $79.7 million of stock on 9 November 2026. The…FLYFirefly AerospaceMedium Firefly Aerospace's third-quarter beat, raised revenue floor and record $1.7 billion backlog make its shares modestly likely to beat the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter Alpha Block II debut settles whether launches carry the $440–450 million…GKOSGlaukosMedium Glaukos's iDose TR glaucoma implant and Epioxa keratoconus therapy lifted third-quarter 2026 sales 58% to $211.0 million, giving the shares a modest edge on a $1 billion 2027 outlook. Medicare's pending iDose TR coverage decision and…INNSummit Hotel PropertiesMedium Summit Hotel Properties looks modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500: it raised 2026 guidance again on 3 November 2026 and October RevPAR rose about 5.5%. The late-February 2027 report shows whether fourth-quarter growth held…LINDLindblad Expeditions HoldingsMedium Lindblad Expeditions' shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 as 91% occupancy, 6% higher pricing and record 2027 bookings lift profit. The fourth-quarter report and 2027 outlook, expected around late February 2027,…LQDALiquidiaMedium Liquidia Corporation's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 because YUTREPIA sales rose 31% to $222.7 million in the third quarter with record October shipments; preliminary fourth-quarter sales, due in early January 2027,…MBGLMobility GlobalMedium Mobility Global, the CARFAX owner spun off from S&P Global, is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months because its third-quarter organic growth sped up to 7.6% and a $350–450 million buyback is due to start before the end of…MTWManitowocMedium Manitowoc's crane orders and raised 2026 guidance give the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether about $90 million of fourth-quarter free cash flow arrives.NTSKNetskopeMedium Netskope's 29% revenue growth and raised fiscal 2027 outlook make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500, with RBC and Mizuho lifting targets in November. The 2 December 2026 fiscal Q3 report settles it: revenue must…OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet HoldingsMedium Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500, supported by a $500 million buyback and three analyst target increases since mid-October. The early-December third-quarter report shows whether comparable…RCELAvita MedicalMedium AVITA Medical's shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 after 53% revenue growth and a raised $92–94 million 2026 guide; the fourth-quarter report shows whether promised cash-flow breakeven arrives.RDVTRed VioletMedium Red Violet's identity-data business still grows faster than its costs, with third-quarter 2026 revenue up 20% and a 40% adjusted EBITDA margin, giving the shares modestly better than even odds of beating the S&P 500. The fourth-quarter…REFReformationMedium Reformation's shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500: revenue grows about 20% and the 2026 sales outlook was raised to $610–612 million. Holiday trading from 27 November 2026 and the estimated 26 January 2027 IPO…REPLReplimune GroupMedium Replimune's melanoma drug TUDRIQEV, first delivered on 6 October 2026, gives the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500 as early prescribing builds. The fiscal third-quarter report, expected around February 2027, carries the first sales…SGHTSight SciencesMedium Sight Sciences' TearCare dry-eye treatment is becoming a second revenue line beside its OMNI glaucoma devices, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500: third-quarter dry-eye sales rose 45% to $3.9 million, and UBS raised its…SIBNSI-BONEMedium SI-BONE's recovery case holds after a third-quarter beat and a final 2027 Medicare office payment, giving its shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. Late-February results settle it by showing whether fourth-quarter growth topped 20%.SLDESlide Insurance HoldingsMedium Slide Insurance is earning well ahead of plan on Florida homeowners policies and paying a $1.50 special dividend after raising 2026 net income guidance to $500–520 million. The fourth-quarter report, estimated around 25 February 2027,…TTEKTetra TechMedium Tetra Tech's $4.67 billion backlog, up 13%, and fiscal 2027 guidance above consensus give it a modest edge over the S&P 500. The late-January 2027 first-quarter report shows whether net revenue lands inside the $1.040–$1.080 billion…VCELVericelMedium Vericel's knee-cartilage implant MACI is growing above 20% a year and the 5 November 2026 report raised 2026 revenue guidance to $344–346 million. The fourth-quarter report settles the case by showing whether MACI reaches about $102…VIAVia TransportationMedium Via Transportation's shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500, after a third-quarter beat, a raised 2026 revenue guide and five target increases; the fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, settles it…VRDNViridian TherapeuticsMedium Viridian Therapeutics' shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500: Lumvoa's $24.7 million first full quarter beat estimates and VRDN-008 data on 9 November 2026 added an autoimmune program. Fourth-quarter Lumvoa sales,…AALAmerican Airlines GroupLow American Airlines shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because jet fuel near $4.70 a gallon is consuming record revenue; the fourth-quarter report, expected in late January 2027, shows whether the guided loss of…ASTSAST SpaceMobileLow AST SpaceMobile's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it after a third-quarter revenue miss and a 45-satellite target pushed to mid-2027. Shipment of BlueBirds 17 to 19 by the end of November 2026 and launches of BlueBirds…AZOAutoZoneLow AutoZone is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its 1.6% domestic same-store sales growth trails O'Reilly's 7.2%, and its latest profit gain leaned on tariff refunds. The 8 December 2026 first-quarter report shows whether…BOBSBobs Discount FurnitureLow Bob's Discount Furniture shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 as a diesel-driven gross margin cut and a 30% furniture tariff from 1 January 2027 weigh on a stock already near analyst targets. The fourth-quarter report settles whether…BSXBoston ScientificLow Boston Scientific shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: a cyberattack, falling Watchman sales and lost ablation share turned fourth-quarter sales guidance negative. The fourth-quarter report expected around 4…BZKanzhunLow Kanzhun (BOSS Zhipin) shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months after an unexplained fall to a record-low $12.49 close on 12 November 2026; the third-quarter 2026 report, expected in late November 2026, shows whether…CARSCars.comLow Cars.com's earnings are growing on cost cuts and buybacks while revenue stays flat, and the shares already trade near analyst targets, so they are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; the late-February 2027 fourth-quarter…CDNLCardinal Infrastructure GroupLow Cardinal Infrastructure Group's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months after a 4.2% third-quarter margin, withdrawn 2026 guidance and a departing CFO. The fourth-quarter report, expected around March 2027, shows…CTOCTO Realty GrowthLow CTO Realty Growth is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: per-share earnings are rising, but the shares trade below its 2026 stock-sale price and leverage is climbing; the fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027,…DASHDoorDashLow DoorDash shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: a $17 billion Instacart deal facing a review that may run to 2028 and a flat fourth-quarter profit guide outweigh record results; the February 2027 report is the next…ETEnergy Transfer LP Common UnitsLow Energy Transfer's units are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because the raised 2026 outlook rests on commodity gains and one-time items while spending climbs. The fourth-quarter report expected in mid-February 2027, with…IBTAIbottaLow Ibotta's Q3 2026 beat is already in the price, and Koch's investment vehicle sold shares into the rally, so the stock is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months. The Q4 2026 report decides whether growth beats the $94–98 million…KIDSOrthoPediatricsLow OrthoPediatrics shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because the $33.67 close on 11 November 2026 sits above six of seven post-report analyst targets despite 19% sales growth. Preliminary fourth-quarter revenue, expected about…LIFEEthos TechnologiesLow Ethos Technologies' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500: record third-quarter growth came from the short-seller-disputed agency channel while receivables and insider sales kept rising. The next customer-concentration disclosure and…NFLXNetflixLow Netflix's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it while members use the service less and its 2026 ad target sits cut; the fourth-quarter report and 2027 outlook, expected around 20 January 2027, decide whether engagement has…NIOLow NIO Inc. shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because October deliveries fell 15.23% from a year earlier as ONVO collapsed. The third-quarter report, expected around 24 November 2026, and November deliveries in early…NUNu HoldingsLow Nu Holdings shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, as rising 90-day delinquencies and a post-election Brazil discount outweigh record profit. The 8 December 2026 Investor Day is the next test of that view.SEPNSepternaLow Septerna's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months after a third-quarter 2026 revenue and loss miss on 9 November 2026; SEP-479 Phase 1 liver-safety data, due in the first quarter of 2027, settle the case.UPSTUpstart HoldingsLow Upstart Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: it cut its 2026 outlook and October lending slowed. November originations and the fourth-quarter report will show whether the slowdown deepens or reverses.USARUSA Rare EarthLow USA Rare Earth shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because third-quarter revenue fell to $3.0 million and the gross loss widened to $19.9 million. The company's goal of magnet sales to multiple customers by the end…AMPAmeriprise FinancialMedium Ameriprise Financial is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter earnings rose 21.7% and Huntington's advisors arrive in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 28 January 2027, tests…ANDGAndersen GroupMedium Andersen Group's shares are modestly more likely to lead the S&P 500 over three months. Its 12 November 2026 report raised 2026 guidance and set 2027 revenue at $1.275–1.325 billion, above the $1.175 billion estimate. The fourth-quarter…AOUTAmerican Outdoor BrandsMedium American Outdoor Brands is more likely to lead the S&P 500 over three months on a 53.0% gross margin, raised profit guidance and a $10 million buyback; the fiscal second-quarter report, estimated for about 8 December 2026, shows how much…ATIMedium ATI Inc., the titanium and nickel-superalloy supplier to aerospace, is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500: its 12 November 2026 Investor Day set 2029 targets well above 2026, and the fourth-quarter report tests whether…BFLYButterfly NetworkMedium Butterfly Network's chip-licensing business beat guidance in the third quarter, and the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months; the fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, settles…BKSYBlackSky TechnologyMedium BlackSky's Q3 revenue of $42.8M (+118%) and a raised FY2026 guide of $140M–$150M strengthen the recovery case; Gen-3 launch timing and equity issuance settle how much the price keeps, with Investor Day on 2 December 2026.BLLNBillionToOneMedium BillionToOne is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: it beat and raised on 4 November 2026 (revenue $123.0 million, up 47%) and is profitable with $561.5 million in cash. The fourth-quarter report, expected around March 2027,…BTCSMedium BTCS Inc.'s decentralized-finance unit doubled gross profit to a record $3.5 million in the third quarter of 2026, which keeps the shares modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months; $27.0 million of new borrowing and…CBLLCeriBellMedium CeriBell's delirium monitor, launched 2 November 2026, should add headband usage to a seizure-monitoring business growing 30%, so the shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months; 2027 guidance with the…CMECME GroupMedium CME Group is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: record October volume of 30 million contracts a day followed record third-quarter revenue. The November volume release, expected around 2 December 2026, shows whether activity…CVLGCovenant Logistics GroupMedium Covenant Logistics' adjusted operating ratio improved to 95.0% in Q3 2026 from 95.9% in Q2, which leaves the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500; the Q4 report, expected around 28 January 2027, settles whether the gain…DRDDRDGOLDMedium DRDGOLD, a debt-free South African gold tailings retreater, is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on a 42% rise in quarterly operating profit; the regional tailings facility review ending about 14 December 2026…DVADaVitaMedium DaVita is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: the third-quarter beat lifted 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $14.30–$15.20, though shares fell to $174.07 on 12 November 2026. The February 2027 fourth-quarter…ELVRElevra LithiumMedium Elevra Lithium's September-quarter report showed sales above production, lower unit costs and the Ewoyaa sale closed, and the shares have bounced to $27.85 from a $21.96 closing low; the December-quarter report decides whether the recovery…FAFirst AdvantageMedium First Advantage's raised 2026 guidance (revenue $1.72–1.745 billion) makes the shares modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months, but Silver Lake's $21.80 secondary on 10 November 2026 caps them; the next quarterly report…FBIZFirst Business Financial ServicesMedium First Business Financial Services is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on a 3.80% third-quarter margin and record earnings; fourth-quarter results in late January 2027 show if the margin and credit hold.FLYWFlywire Corporation VotingMedium Flywire is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter growth of 26.0% topped its 16–22% outlook and 2026 guidance rose to 25–27%. The fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, tests…GCMGGCM GrosvenorMedium GCM Grosvenor is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter fee-related earnings rose 15% and fundraising reached $2.7 billion. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, shows whether 2026…GCTGigaCloud TechnologyMedium GigaCloud Technology's marketplace is growing faster than guided, so the shares are modestly more likely to lead the S&P 500 over three months; the fourth-quarter report, estimated for late February 2027, shows if revenue meets the $425…GEOGEO GroupMedium The GEO Group is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter revenue rose 12% on 5 November 2026, profit guidance went up and two 10-year ICE contracts began. Federal funding when the stopgap spending bill…HRBH&R BlockMedium H&R Block is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: management reaffirmed fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $6.04–$6.24 on 9 November 2026; the 3 December 2026 Investor Day is next, and the filing season settles it.HURNHuron Consulting GroupMedium Huron Consulting's adjusted earnings are growing faster than revenue and buybacks are retiring about 10% of shares, so the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500; fourth-quarter organic growth settles it.IAGIAMGoldMedium IAMGOLD is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months on large cash flow and a net cash balance, but gold's fall after hot US inflation data weighs on it; the Fed's 9 December 2026 decision and the December royalty…JAKKJAKKS PacificMedium JAKKS Pacific's licensed Disney doll, role-play and costume lines lifted third-quarter sales 20% and net income 50%, and the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months. Black Friday on 27 November 2026…JRSHJerash Holdings (US)Medium Jerash Holdings beat its fiscal Q2 guidance on 10 November 2026 and guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $49–51 million against a $44.6 million consensus, with plants fully booked through June 2027. The fiscal Q3 report due around 10 February 2027…KAROKaroooooMedium Karooooo's record quarterly operating profit and 18% subscriber growth make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months; the third-quarter fiscal 2027 report, estimated for about 19 January 2027, shows…KFRCKforceMedium Kforce's technology-staffing recovery should lead the S&P 500 over the next three months after third-quarter revenue of $357.8 million beat guidance; fourth-quarter revenue against the $352–360 million guide, due around early February…KMTSKestra Medical TechnologiesMedium Kestra Medical Technologies is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: revenue grew 60% and gross margin reached 56.5%. The fiscal second-quarter report, estimated for about 10 December 2026, tests the $141…LILAKLiberty Latin AmericaMedium Liberty Latin America's wider margins, lower leverage and over $150 million of buybacks make its shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months; rebased revenue fell 2%, so the fourth-quarter 2026 report, due…LTHLife Time Group HoldingsMedium Life Time Group Holdings' 29 October 2026 third-quarter beat and raised 8.5%–8.7% comparable-center revenue outlook support a modest lead over the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report and six club openings settle it.MCSMarcusMedium The Marcus Corporation's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months, because theatre attendance rose 16.8% in the fiscal third quarter; the 18 December 2026 Avengers: Doomsday release and the late-February fiscal…MURMurphy OilMedium Murphy Oil is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter output of 186,495 boe/d beat guidance, but Brent's drop to $92.57 on 9 November 2026 makes crude prices and fourth-quarter delivery the test.NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line HoldingsMedium Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings beat third-quarter guidance and raised its 2026 outlook on 29 October 2026, with 2027 net yield guided up 1% to 2%; first-half 2027 bookings, still behind last year, decide whether that holds.NPNeptune Insurance HoldingsMedium Neptune Insurance Holdings is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter revenue grew 34.3% against a guide of about 17% for 2027, though executives keep selling. The fourth-quarter report, expected…OPIOffice Properties Income TrustMedium Office Properties Income Trust's recovery case improved: its 9 November 2026 quarterly report confirmed full repayment of the revolver and term loan; closing of $134.1 million of pending property sales decides whether debt keeps falling.OWLBlue Owl CapitalMedium Blue Owl Capital's fee earnings grew through the private-credit withdrawal stress, so the shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months; the fourth-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, settles whether…PANLPangaea Logistics SolutionsMedium Pangaea Logistics Solutions' dry-bulk earnings recovery is now in the share price, which closed at $9.46 on 12 November 2026; the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 if fourth-quarter freight rates hold near the…PKPark Hotels & ResortsMedium Park Hotels & Resorts is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: demand is outrunning about $30 million a year of extra interest cost. The fourth-quarter report and first 2027 guidance, expected around 19…PTGXProtagonist TherapeuticsMedium Protagonist Therapeutics is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: it holds $834.6 million of cash and earns royalties on two approved partner drugs. J&J's January 2027 report and Protagonist's February 2027…QTWOQ2 HoldingsMedium Q2 Holdings' digital-banking software recovery makes the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months, after a third-quarter beat and a raised 2026 outlook; the fourth-quarter report, expected around February…RHIRobert HalfMedium Robert Half's staffing recovery makes the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months; the fourth-quarter report, due around late January 2027, decides it, since earnings guidance of $0.36–$0.46 sits below…RSKDRiskifiedMedium Riskified's third-quarter beat and third guidance raise make its shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500: revenue rose 41% to $115.2 million and 2026 guidance rose to $427–433 million. Gross margin, down to 43% from 50%,…SENSSenseonics HoldingsMedium Senseonics' third-quarter revenue beat and second 2026 guidance raise give the shares a modestly better-than-even case to beat the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter iLet launch and the full-year report, which must deliver the $68–70 million…SGMTSagimet BiosciencesMedium Sagimet Biosciences' acne drug denifanstat is in a US Phase 3 trial, and the company guides that cash funds operations through mid-2029, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. AURORA enrollment and the second-half 2027 topline…SHIPSeanergy Maritime HoldingsMedium Seanergy Maritime's Capesize earnings are running ahead of its own estimate, so the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months; Capesize rates and the fourth-quarter report, expected around 17 February…TGTXTG TherapeuticsMedium TG Therapeutics' beat-and-raise on 9 November 2026 lifted its 2026 US BRIUMVI guide to $915–920 million, making the shares modestly likely to beat the S&P 500; a fourth-quarter sales ramp and the subcutaneous Phase 3 topline settle it.THCTenet Healthcare Corporation NewMedium Tenet Healthcare is more likely to lead the S&P 500 over three months: hospital margin hit 19.2% and 2026 guidance rose again. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, shows whether margin holds without a $147 million…WEXMedium WEX Inc. is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on organic fuel-card growth and share repurchases, though fuel prices drove much of its 28 October 2026 beat; the fourth-quarter report, estimated for early February 2027, shows…WSMWilliams-SonomaMedium Williams-Sonoma's raised fiscal 2026 outlook and a new round of analyst target raises on 12 November 2026 leave the shares modestly more likely to lead the S&P 500 over three months; the third-quarter report, expected in the second half of…XPOMedium XPO, Inc. is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: its 80.1% third-quarter LTL operating ratio is a real margin gain. The November operating data, expected around 3 December 2026, shows whether volume and pricing hold.ACDCProFrac HoldingLow ProFrac Holding's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter Stimulation Services margin stayed at 9%, flat on the second quarter, and the shares closed at $3.19 on 12 November 2026. The fourth-quarter…ACHRArcher AviationLow Archer Aviation's pending Boeing-unit purchase would add Insitu's stated $200 million-plus of annual revenue to an air-taxi developer reporting $5.1 million a quarter, but a wider loss guide leaves the shares more likely to lag the S&P…AEMAgnico Eagle MinesLow Agnico Eagle Mines is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter unit costs rose about 24% and the shares closed at $185.96 on 11 November 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether…AEYEAudioEyeLow AudioEye's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: the company is profitable, but sales grew 7%, the executive chairman kept selling, and the stock is up 137% in three months; the Q4 report decides it.AGMFederal Agricultural MortgageLow Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: record loan volume has not lifted earnings, and core earnings per share of $4.82 missed the $5.20 estimate. The fourth-quarter 2026…AIFFFirefly NeuroscienceLow Firefly Neuroscience's third-quarter revenue rose to $647,000, but cash fell to $8.0 million with going-concern doubt unresolved, and the shares at $0.96 are more likely to lag the S&P 500; unannounced revenue terms from its partnerships…AMRAlpha Metallurgical ResourcesLow Alpha Metallurgical Resources is more likely to lag the S&P 500: 2027 cost guidance of $104–$110 per ton sits above 2026's $103–$107 while committed 2027 prices are lower. The fourth-quarter report settles it.ARESAres ManagementLow Ares Management's fee earnings still rise, but the 29 October 2026 report slowed fee growth and trimmed three 2026 targets, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 until fourth-quarter fundraising and deployment arrive.ARISAris MiningLow Aris Mining Corporation's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: Q3 missed estimates on higher costs and 2026 output is aimed at the low end of guidance. The Marmato first gold pour, targeted for December 2026, settles it.ARQQArqit QuantumLow Arqit Quantum is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of about $1 million missed the $1.2 million expected after a Middle East contract stopped. December 2026 full results show whether NATO work…ASOAcademy Sports and OutdoorsLow Academy Sports and Outdoors shares, up 42.1% in three months to $69.32, are more likely to lag the S&P 500 while comparable sales are negative and EPS guidance leans on one-time tariff refunds; the ~8 December 2026 report settles it.ASTHAstrana HealthLow Astrana Health is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA is guided to $48.5–61.5 million against $77.2 million in the third quarter, and Medicaid costs run above plan. Medicare Advantage contracts…ATEXAnterixLow Anterix's 900 MHz spectrum case still lacks a signed deal: its 10 November 2026 quarterly report showed no new utility agreement, no buyback and no strategic-review timetable, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 until a…AURAurora InnovationLow Aurora Innovation's driverless-truck case rests on a schedule reset: guidance was cut on 28 October 2026 and four brokers lowered targets after. Production of about 20 trucks a week by early December settles whether the 200-truck goal…AUTLAutolus TherapeuticsLow Autolus Therapeutics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because AUCATZYL sales fell to $41.2 million in the third quarter and the shares closed at $1.24 on 11 November 2026 despite a raised outlook; fourth-quarter sales decide…AVRAnteris Technologies GlobalLow Anteris Technologies is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its DurAVR heart-valve trial is funded, but spending is rising and a $250 million stock-sale program is open; the December-quarter cash report in late January 2027…AYAAya Gold & SilverLow Aya Gold & Silver's third-quarter operating cash flow of US$48 million matched Q2 despite 21% more output, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; Q4 cash flow settles whether volume converts into cash.BBARBanco BBVA ArgentinaLow Banco BBVA Argentina's US-listed shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because they trade on Argentine sovereign risk, which hit 831 basis points on 3 November 2026; the third-quarter report on 24 November 2026 shows whether credit…BIRKBirkenstock HoldingLow Birkenstock Holding plc's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it: they closed at $36.61 on 11 November 2026, below the 200-day average, with the Americas wholesale debate unresolved until the 10 December 2026 full-year…BMABanco MacroLow Banco Macro's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: they closed at a 52-week closing low of $57.23 on 11 November 2026 despite a buyback. The third-quarter results, not yet confirmed for a date, settle whether bad loans are rising.BRBRBellRing BrandsLow BellRing Brands' recovery case is unproven at a $10.17 close on 10 November 2026: the October Premier Protein price increases are the repair mechanism, and the 18 November 2026 fiscal fourth-quarter report with the first fiscal 2027…BRCBBlack Rock Coffee BarLow Black Rock Coffee Bar's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500. Third-quarter same-store sales rose 5.8%, but margins narrowed and debt rose, and fourth-quarter results, expected around March 2027, will show whether margins recover.BROSDutch BrosLow Dutch Bros still grows revenue near 30%, but customer visits rose only 0.4% in the third quarter and profit guidance was cut, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500. The fourth-quarter report settles whether traffic recovers.BSPBending Spoons S.p.A.Low Bending Spoons' software-buying model still earns profit, but 3% organic growth and costlier debt make the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500; the 20 November 2026 Q3 report and the lock-up expiry after it settle the case.CAICaris Life SciencesLow Caris Life Sciences' third-quarter beat and raised 2026 revenue guidance were offset by slower 27% growth, a lower gross margin and negative free cash flow, so the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report,…CCSCentury CommunitiesLow Century Communities' third-quarter orders fell 4.3% and the company cut its 2026 delivery range, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report shows whether orders and margin stabilise.CTKBCytek BiosciencesLow Cytek Biosciences' revenue growth slowed to 2% in the third quarter and product sales fell, so the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. Fourth-quarter revenue against the $208 million–$211 million outlook settles it.CXWCoreCivicLow CoreCivic sold four detention facilities to the federal government for $2.2 billion, still operates them, and raised recurring guidance on 4 November 2026. Two operating contracts expire in August 2027, so the shares are more likely to lag…DAVELow Dave Inc. is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the shares closed at $267.37 on 12 November 2026 despite a third-quarter beat and raised outlook, as DOJ/FTC and subpoena headlines weigh; a court ruling or the fourth-quarter…DDD3D SystemsLow 3D Systems met its Q3 revenue guidance, but a Q4 outlook below estimates, a $42.5 million share-sale program and a debt-for-equity exchange keep the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500; Q4 revenue and dilution settle it.DSXDiana ShippingLow Diana Shipping is re-fixing ships at much higher charter rates, but the shares sit below their 50-day and 200-day averages and are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the 25 November 2026 third-quarter report shows whether revenue confirms the…EDRYEuroDryLow EuroDry's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 despite a third-quarter earnings beat, because nine of its eleven ships reset charters in November and December 2026 into a softer dry-bulk market. The fourth-quarter charter rates those…EGOEldorado GoldLow Eldorado Gold's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they fell three sessions to $31.84 (close, 12 November 2026) after a 2026 gold guidance cut and higher costs. Commercial production at Skouries and McIlvenna Bay…ENVAEnova InternationalLow Enova International's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 after breaking below their September low on 6 November 2026, despite a third-quarter growth beat and a new $500 million buyback; fourth-quarter charge-offs against the third…EOLSEvolusLow Evolus is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter revenue growth slowed to 13% from 21% and cash is thin. The FDA decision on Evolysse Sculpt, expected by 31 December 2026, settles whether growth re-accelerates.EQNREquinor ASALow Equinor's earnings follow European gas and oil prices, which fell in early November on Iran peace-talk hopes, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; the Visund restart and the fourth-quarter report due around 4…FACFactorial EnergyLow Factorial Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500, as third-quarter 2026 revenue was only $26 thousand and meaningful sales wait for 2027; the fourth-quarter report shows whether orders gain disclosed value.FRDFriedman IndustriesLow Friedman Industries' record September quarter is already reflected in a share price that fell after the report, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; the December-quarter report settles whether steel margins…FSLRFirst SolarLow First Solar's third-quarter report cut 2026 sales guidance, left backlog at 44.0 GW and showed new US bookings near $0.36 per watt, so the case now rests on the $0.38 import price floor starting 4 December 2026 lifting prices.FSMFortuna MiningLow Fortuna Mining's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: third-quarter cost rose to $2,286 per gold equivalent ounce and the shares trade with falling gold. The Diamba Sud permit, expected in Q4 2026, settles the case.GCTSGCT Semiconductor HoldingLow GCT Semiconductor's third-quarter revenue of $1.069 million missed estimates and management pushed the 5G chipset ramp into the first half of 2027, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; fourth-quarter revenue and 5G purchase…GGALGrupo Financiero GaliciaLow Grupo Financiero Galicia's US-listed shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because Argentine sovereign risk, not bank earnings, drives them; October inflation of 2.2% beat forecasts, and third-quarter results (~24…GHGuardant HealthLow Guardant Health's Shield revenue is growing fast, but patent losses, wider cash-burn guidance and a new $500 million convertible note sale make the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500; the report expected around 18 February 2027 settles…GOLFAcushnet HoldingsLow Acushnet Holdings, maker of Titleist and FootJoy, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter sales fell 1.3% and the 2026 profit guide leans on about $30 million of tariff refunds. The late-February 2027…HBBHamilton Beach Brands HoldingLow Hamilton Beach Brands is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: it cut its 2026 revenue and operating-profit outlook on 4 November 2026 as retailers turned cautious on holiday orders. Holiday sell-through from 27 November 2026…HCCWarrior Met CoalLow Warrior Met Coal's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: Blue Creek volume is up 48%, but sales at about 66% of the benchmark coal price keep earnings below forecasts. Fourth-quarter volume and price realization settle it.HGTYHagertyLow Hagerty's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its majority holder sold 11.5 million shares in the November 2026 offering, its second sale in two months, after a raised 2026 outlook; the fourth-quarter…HVTHaverty Furniture CompaniesLow Haverty Furniture Companies' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: order growth slowed to 2.3% in the third quarter from 12.3%, and adjusted EPS ex-refunds was $0.25. The early-2027 fourth-quarter report settles it.IPXIperionXLow IperionX's titanium-powder output rose to 8.7 tons in the September quarter, but it reported no fiscal 2026 revenue and Titan mine financing is unsecured, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the cash report due around 30…ITGartnerLow Gartner's contract value is growing too slowly (2.5% at 30 September 2026) to lift the shares, which are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, shows whether growth reaches 3%.JILLJ.JillLow J.Jill's earnings recovery is largely reflected in the price, so the shares lean toward lagging the S&P 500 until the third-quarter report, expected around 9 December 2026, shows whether guided 3%–5% sales growth arrives.KOSKosmos EnergyLow Kosmos Energy is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the 2 November 2026 report missed estimates and fourth-quarter output is guided down to 60,000–64,000 boepd. Fourth-quarter results and year-end net debt below $2.4 billion…KROKronos WorldwideLow Kronos Worldwide's third-quarter titanium-dioxide profit recovery is real, but management guided to a softer fourth quarter and debt is $539.9 million, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; fourth-quarter…KRTKarat PackagingLow Karat Packaging's 33.5% third-quarter gross margin missed the 35–37% guide and fourth-quarter guidance is lower at 33–35%, so the shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500. Freight costs and the 1 January 2027 price increase settle it.LGIHLGI HomesLow LGI Homes shares lean toward lagging the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter net orders fell 61.2% to 609 and the post-report rise has reversed. The November closings release, expected around 3 December 2026, shows whether demand is…LILALiberty Latin AmericaLow Liberty Latin America's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the 4 November 2026 quarterly report missed estimates and the Liberty Puerto Rico restructuring is unresolved. A signed deal on the parent's stake in the…MAMAMama's CreationsLow Mama's Creations is growing fast (revenue up 55% in the July 2026 quarter), but its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months, closing at $13.24 on 12 November 2026. Gross margin and a use for the cash settle it at the…MCHPMicrochip TechnologyLow Microchip Technology is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its 5 November 2026 outlook guides December-quarter sales down 3% to up 1% with lower gross margin, and the early-February 2027 report settles whether growth resumes.MGMMGM Resorts InternationalLow MGM Resorts International is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter adjusted EBITDA fell to $403 million from $506 million. The Nevada October gaming report in late November tests management's claim of an October…MNTNLow MNTN, Inc.'s shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: a sales-force overhaul cut third-quarter revenue to $80.251 million and full-year guidance to $311–314 million. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected in early…MOVMovado GroupLow Movado Group's margin recovery is already in reported results, and the shares, down 10.5% in three months, are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the third-quarter fiscal 2027 report, expected in late November, tests the 55%–56% margin…NOGNorthern Oil and GasLow Northern Oil and Gas is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: record third-quarter results and higher production guidance did not hold the shares, which follow crude and U.S.-Iran headlines. Fourth-quarter results, expected…NVCTNuvectis PharmaLow Nuvectis Pharma's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: NXP200 glioma data are out, and the remaining test is whether US IND filings for NXP100 and NXP200 land by the 31 December 2026 guide.ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineLow Old Dominion Freight Line's recovery is not yet being paid for: the shares closed at $168.02 on 10 November 2026 after a Q3 beat and a round of target cuts. The early-December operating update settles whether tonnage and pricing hold.OKTALow Okta's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because index-addition buying has passed and no reported figure shows AI-agent products lifting contracted revenue. The 1 December 2026 third-quarter report tests contracted-revenue growth…OMEROmerosLow Omeros Corporation is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: Europe upheld its rejection of YARTEMLEA on 16 October 2026, leaving one US product, and the 16 November 2026 third-quarter report must show net product sales well…PAYSPaysignLow Paysign's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because the loss of 113 plasma centers outweighs its third-quarter beat. The fourth-quarter report, expected in early March 2027, shows whether new copay programs and…PRLBProto LabsLow Proto Labs' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: record third-quarter revenue was offset by a 44.5% gross margin, and the fourth-quarter report in late February 2027 shows whether margins recover.PRPOPrecipioLow Precipio's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 after a jump to $24.80 on 11 November 2026, because third-quarter revenue of $7.331 million showed steady growth with no new acceleration. The fourth-quarter report, expected around…PTENPatterson-UTI EnergyLow Patterson-UTI Energy's drilling recovery is real, but its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $10.67 on 12 November 2026, 20.3% below the September high, and Citigroup cut its target to $11. The…QTRXQuanterixLow Quanterix's third-quarter report beat on revenue but cut the year-end cash forecast to about $70 million and pushed the spatial panels to early 2027, so the shares still lack a result that supports a recovery; the fourth-quarter report…RCMTRCM TechnologiesLow RCM Technologies is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: Engineering revenue fell to $30.7 million in the quarter to 3 October 2026, below the second quarter's $39.5 million. The fiscal 2026 year-end report, expected around…RXRXRecursion PharmaceuticalsLow Recursion Pharmaceuticals' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: cash runs into 2029 and REC-4881 data held up, but every dated next step sits in 2027. An FDA agreement on the registrational trial settles the case.SHAKShake ShackLow Shake Shack's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: the 5 November 2026 report held full-year ranges, but margin sits in the lower half of its range and 2027 has no outlook. Fourth-quarter results due around…SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance GroupLow Skyward Specialty Insurance Group is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the third-quarter combined ratio of 89.9% held, but premium growth is slowing and property pricing is falling. The 2027 guidance with fourth-quarter…SMSM EnergyLow SM Energy's Civitas merger is cutting debt, but a lowered 2026 oil outlook and flat 2027 volumes leave the shares tied to crude and more likely to lag the S&P 500; fourth-quarter results and 2027 guidance, expected in February 2027, settle…SNDRSchneider NationalLow Schneider National's earnings are improving, but its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $28.95 on 12 November 2026, below both moving averages, after brokers cut targets. Freight data and the…SPIRSpire GlobalLow Spire Global's third quarter cut cash use to $5.0 million but missed revenue and trimmed 2026 guidance to $75–80 million, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report shows whether the guided $23–28 million…SSLSasolLow Sasol Limited's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the ADR is 21.2% below its October high and the fiscal 2026 recovery is priced in; interim results due around 23 February 2027 test net debt against US$3 billion.SVVSavers Value VillageLow Savers Value Village is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: U.S. comparable sales slowed to 5.9% in the third quarter and Ares funds still hold about 65% of the shares. The fourth-quarter report in early 2027 settles whether…TDUPThredUpLow ThredUp's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: on 4 November 2026 the company cut fourth-quarter revenue guidance to $77.0–79.0 million from $85.0–87.0 million, and the fourth-quarter report, expected around…URGNUroGen PharmaLow UroGen Pharma's ZUSDURI bladder-cancer launch is growing but slowing, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months. Fourth-quarter ZUSDURI revenue, expected in early 2027, settles whether growth of 35% in the third…VIOTViomi TechnologyLow Viomi Technology's ADSs have bounced from their late-October low, but sales have not recovered: first-half 2026 revenue fell 49.9%. Second-half results, estimated for around 25 March 2027, must show revenue above RMB740.0 million and a…WEYSWeyco GroupLow Weyco Group's 2026 earnings jump leans on tariff refunds that are nearly used up, so the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; the fourth-quarter report, estimated for around 3 March 2027, shows margins without…WTWisdomTreeLow WisdomTree's assets fell to $166.85 billion in October despite $1.65 billion of client inflows, so the shares, rebounding to $21.44 on 11 November 2026, are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the November asset report and fourth-quarter…WTIW&T OffshoreLow W&T Offshore is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: fourth-quarter output is guided to 32.0–35.3 MBoe/d from 38.2 in the third quarter, and crude is falling; hurricane season's end on 30 November 2026 and crude decide it.XGNExagenLow Exagen's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 after a third quarter with about 2% test-volume growth, a wider loss and a new $150 million shelf; a Medicare coverage ruling or full-year revenue above guidance would test that view.ZENAZenaTechLow ZenaTech's drone-survey revenue is growing fast, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $0.63 on 12 November 2026 while the company sells stock under a $150 million program. The full…