Filtered library · Archetype
Defensive · 85 dossiers
Dossiers classified as Defensive — 85 names, each with its thesis, invalidation trigger and catalyst calendar.
All 85 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.
All dossiers OKTA Okta, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme… ATEX Anterix Inc. fresh LOW Anterix’s utility-spectrum conversion thesis failed its published price test when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $76.99 breached $85.31. A new utility agreement with disclosed payments and a weekly recovery above $85.31 would support a… LSTR Landstar System, Inc. fresh LOW Landstar System's truckload repricing must produce further earnings improvement. The 2026-10-27 results settle the case if truck revenue per load grows year over year and earnings per share exceed the second quarter's $1.44 before a weekly… ADPT Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation MEDIUM clonoSEQ MRD pure-play inflecting to self-funding growth (MRD rev +53% YoY, profitability turning); June 15 Immune Medicine separation adds a value-unlock leg. But the tape just broke to fresh 52-wk highs (~$22.92) above the $20–22… ASTH Astrana Health Inc. MEDIUM Astrana Health’s full-risk care story depends on meeting Q3 revenue and profit guidance while preserving its raised annual profit outlook. That operational result must arrive before a weekly close below $34 invalidates the recovery thesis. DCTH Delcath Systems, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Delcath Systems’ self-funded liver-treatment expansion must sustain its raised revenue outlook. Confirmation requires maintained $104–108 million guidance at the next quarterly report and a weekly close above $17.36 before a weekly close… ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MEDIUM Eton Pharmaceuticals’ re-rating rests on repeatable rare-disease product revenue. Confirmation requires third-quarter product sales to match or exceed the $37.568 million reported on 2026-08-13 and annual revenue guidance above $145… FBIZ First Business Financial Services, Inc. fresh MEDIUM First Business Financial Services’ earnings re-rating depends on Q3 sustaining its 3.78% margin and exceeding $19.8 million in pre-tax pre-provision earnings. The thesis fails on a weekly close below $68 or deterioration below those Q2… FIGS FIGS, Inc. MEDIUM The post-print shelf resolved upward: the 2026-08-28 close of $15.42 sits 8.1% above the 2026-08-07 mark of $14.26 and 9.9% under the $17.12 52-week high, with no company-dated news since the 2026-08-07 target revisions. The re-rating off… IBTA Ibotta, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Ibotta's rally prices a repeatable recovery in digital-promotions revenue; Q3 revenue above $86 million with year-over-year growth would confirm the next leg, unless a weekly close below $33 invalidates it first. LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. fresh MEDIUM Ethos Technologies’ guidance-durability re-rating depends on meeting its third-quarter outlook despite the TruStage disruption. Revenue of at least $160 million and preservation of the $727–731 million full-year outlook would substantiate… MTW The Manitowoc Company, Inc. MEDIUM Manitowoc's crane-order recovery supports its re-rating if Q3 backlog holds at least $1,050.1 million and raised 2026 profit guidance survives. A weekly close below $18 invalidates the price thesis; the Q3 reporting date remains… NVCT Nuvectis Pharma, Inc. MEDIUM Nuvectis Pharma’s expanded-pipeline valuation depends on US development of its Haisco compounds. The case requires announced IND submissions for both assets and a weekly close above the $28.53 trailing high by 2026-12-31, before a weekly… RCEL Avita Medical, Inc. fresh MEDIUM AVITA Medical’s wound-care turnaround depends on meeting its $86–89 million 2026 revenue guide and generating cash in the fourth quarter. Those commitments, announced on 2026-08-06, must become reported results before a weekly close below… SGMT Sagimet Biosciences Inc. Series A MEDIUM Sagimet Biosciences’ funded acne-trial launch underpins a continuation case, confirmed by October 2026 screening and a weekly close above $11.06. A weekly close below $8.50 or a disclosed screening delay beyond October would invalidate it. SIBN SI-BONE, Inc. MEDIUM SI-BONE’s surgical-device growth and improving adjusted profitability underpin a recovery case above the August shelf. A weekly close above $21.40 would confirm renewed strength before a weekly close below $17 invalidates it; the September… DSX Diana Shipping, Inc. LOW Diana Shipping's higher charter rates underpin a near-term breakout thesis, settled by a weekly close above $3.01 before a weekly close below $2.97. Those levels are the adjusted annual high and latest daily close in the September 11, 2026… HBB Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company fresh LOW Hamilton Beach Brands' tariff-refund re-rating needs durable underlying margins and renewed price strength. A weekly close above the September 11 reference high of $33.86 before a weekly close below $28.00 completes the price case;… JILL J.Jill, Inc. fresh LOW J.Jill's post-earnings continuation thesis failed when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $23.94 breached its published $24.08 threshold. Third-quarter results must separately confirm management's projected sales acceleration. PAYS Paysign, Inc. LOW Paysign’s patient-affordability expansion can sustain its August re-rating if Q3 meets revenue and program guidance and retains the full-year outlook. A weekly close below $11.50 invalidates the market thesis before that confirmation. PRPO Precipio, Inc. LOW Precipio’s diagnostics growth and renewed operating cash generation support a conditional recovery toward its recorded $32.37 high. A weekly close above that level confirms the price case; a weekly close below the 2026-09-11 reference… SENS Senseonics Holdings, Inc. LOW Only year-long implantable CGM, clinically de-risked at ADA 2026 with revenue +71.9% YoY TTM — and the tape has spent six weeks grinding back toward the $4.79 post-catalyst low ($5.11 on Jul 17). Accelerating fundamentals against a broken… WT WisdomTree, Inc. fresh LOW WisdomTree’s record August assets and September 17 MoonPay agreement support a fee-growth rerating thesis. A weekly close at or above the $25.04 annual high observed September 18, 2026 confirms the price case; a weekly close below that… ATI ATI Inc. fresh MEDIUM Titanium/superalloy aero-defense supplier digesting a June breakout above the reclaimed $183.30 ATH shelf: ~9% off the $204.09 high, RSI cooled to ~66, consensus PT $200.33 back above spot. Q2 lands 2026-08-06; peer CRS prints 2026-07-30… BFLY Butterfly Network, Inc. fresh LOW Butterfly Embedded chip-licensing story got marquee validation — Midjourney's up-to-$74M/5yr full-body scanner on 40 Ultrasound-on-Chip modules (2026-06-18) plus 2nd partner Aleph Neuro (2026-06-25). Fundamentals still accelerating, but… KYMR Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. fresh LOW Oral STAT6 degrader (KT-621) re-rated on early BROADEN2 enrollment (6/25) and the $10.9B AbbVie–Apogee read-through, but the analyst upgrade cycle topped with RBC's 7/13 downgrade to neutral and the binary topline is 2H-2026 — a maturing,… SYRE Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. fresh LOW Two of three lead binaries (SPY001, SPY002 anti-TL1A) printed potential best-in-class; the stock absorbed a ~$399.7M director-fund block sale and sits back near its ~$102 ATH (~$95). Next legs — SPY003 IL-23 Part A (guided mid-2026,… TNGX Tango Therapeutics, Inc. fresh LOW Post-data digestion, not acceleration: the 92% ORR combo print is fully paid for and the tape has faded from $32.90 to ~$27.7, below the $30.00 June secondary. Sell-side keeps marking up (JPM Overweight $46 on 7/15, Mizuho $40 on 7/17)… AOUT American Outdoor Brands, Inc. fresh HIGH American Outdoor Brands’ margin recovery supports an earnings-driven rerating toward Roth Capital’s $17 target dated 2026-09-04. A daily close at or above $17 would confirm that price leg; a weekly close below the $14.19 earnings-reaction… ANDG Andersen Group Inc. fresh MEDIUM Post-IPO roll-up re-rate that survived its binary: Q2 revenue $217.7M beat $199.3M on 2026-08-12 and FY2026 was affirmed at $980M–$1.0B, with four target raises to $49–57 on 2026-08-13. The print is behind it and no dated catalyst sits… AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Q2 (2026-07-29) cleared the binary without breaking the plan: >200 driverless trucks and ~$80M exit run-rate reaffirmed, FY26 revenue guided $14–16M, ~$1.2B cash after a $215M net ATM raise. Price reclaimed the broken ~$6.00 June shelf to… CBLL CeriBell, Inc. MEDIUM Ceribell’s reimbursement-backed delirium expansion needs a Q4 2026 commercial launch and a weekly close above $24.89 to confirm the next leg. A weekly close below $21.50 invalidates the price thesis; the 2026-10-01 payment start alone does… CSTL Castle Biosciences, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Castle Biosciences’ recovery rests on TissueCypher sustaining its growth plan; the next quarterly results must preserve revenue and test-volume guidance. Management’s unchanged outlook at the 2026-09-15 Baird conference supports the case,… GCT GigaCloud Technology Inc MEDIUM GigaCloud Technology's operating-leverage rerating remains the thesis; a weekly close above $53.25 would confirm price continuation, while a weekly close below $45 would invalidate it. Third-quarter results test whether the August margin… JRSH Jerash Holdings (US), Inc. fresh MEDIUM Jerash Holdings’ sourcing-migration story depends on another quarter meeting guidance. Fiscal Q2 revenue of at least $49 million and gross margin of at least 14% would confirm the case before a weekly close below $4.80 invalidates the… KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plc MEDIUM Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals’ commercial re-rating depends on another ARCALYST revenue-guidance increase at the next quarterly report. The case fails if that report leaves the 2026-07-28 range of $980–995 million unchanged or lower, or a weekly… LILA Liberty Latin America Ltd. fresh MEDIUM Liberty Latin America's break-up story needs an announced Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands separation form and completion window by the next quarterly report. That milestone confirms the case unless a weekly close below $7.30 invalidates… NTSK Netskope, Inc. MEDIUM Netskope's September 2 revenue beat and guidance raise support an earnings-backed recovery toward J.P. Morgan's 2026-09-03 target of $18. A weekly close above $18 completes the price case; a weekly close below $13.50 invalidates it. PRM Perimeter Solutions, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Monopoly wildfire retardant (PHOS-CHEK) into a season at national Preparedness Level 5 — 3.85M acres burned YTD (NIFC, 7/18), ~157% of the 10-yr average. JPM initiated Overweight $50 on 7/9, lifting the 4-analyst average target to $45.… SEPN Septerna, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Septerna’s funded oral-drug platform underpins a recovery thesis after the September 18 shelf reclaim. A weekly close above the $48.19 market high before a weekly close below $33 would confirm the price case; clinical validation still… SM SM Energy Company MEDIUM SM Energy’s merger-integration story supports a further rerating. The price case is a weekly close above Wells Fargo’s $47 target of 2026-08-13 before a weekly close below Seaport’s $35 target of 2026-09-03; neither analyst valuation is… VIA Via Transportation, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Via Transportation's transit-software re-rating depends on meeting Q3 revenue guidance and preserving its Q4 adjusted-profitability goal. A weekly close below $24, Q3 revenue below $137.6 million, or withdrawal of the positive Q4 adjusted… XGN Exagen Inc. fresh MEDIUM Post-print re-rating off the 2026-08-04 Q2 beat (revenue $19.941M vs $17.817M consensus, FY26 guide lifted to $72–75M) is now digesting rather than extending: $7.92 on 2026-08-21 to $7.58 on 2026-09-04 with RSI(14) cooling from 86.7 to… AMBQ Ambiq Micro, Inc. fresh LOW Q2 (2026-08-11) net sales $33.9M, +89.7% YoY and a $36–37M Q3 guide above the $34.0M Street have bought nothing: the 2026-09-04 close of $57.45 sits 36.5% under the $90.48 high with RSI(14) at 31.7. A Form 4 filed 2026-09-02 shows the CEO… ARHS Arhaus, Inc. LOW Arhaus's order-recovery thesis requires Q3 2026 delivered-sales growth above Q2's 4.0% and a weekly close above the lost $9.00 market shelf. A weekly close below $8.00 invalidates the case. AUTL Autolus Therapeutics plc LOW Autolus Therapeutics’ AUCATZYL growth story lost price confirmation when the 2026-09-11 close breached the published $2.05 weekly threshold. A recovery case requires a weekly reclaim above $2.05 and delivery against the $140–150 million… AVR Anteris Technologies Global Corp. fresh LOW Post-catalyst drift: the CMS/first-patient/France de-risking sequence is spent, and Q2 (reported 2026-08-12) missed both lines — EPS $(0.30) vs $(0.21), revenue $1.009M vs $1.500M — yet the 2026-08-14 close held $9.40 with RSI 66.9.… BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc LOW Birkenstock Holding plc’s raised earnings outlook supports a fragile recovery case, resolved by a weekly reclaim above $36 before a weekly close below $31. The September 11, 2026 close of $31.13 leaves that case unconfirmed. BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. fresh LOW Gen-3 subscription ramp landed in Q2 (2026-08-06): revenue $33.316M vs $30.68M est, +50% YoY, adjusted EBITDA $4.7M, FY26 guide affirmed at $130–150M. But EPS missed at $(0.54) vs $(0.36), cash is $36.9M against a $50–60M capex guide, and… BNGO Bionano Genomics, Inc. fresh LOW Bionano Genomics’ clinical-adoption and reimbursement story supports a test of the $2.13 annual high. A daily close above that level would confirm the price case; a weekly close below the September 18 reference close of $1.73 would… BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. fresh LOW BellRing Brands’ tentative recovery case rests on October pricing supporting a weekly return above the lost $10 threshold before full-year results. The prior base has failed; a subsequent weekly close below the September 18 reference close… BROS Dutch Bros Inc. LOW Drive-thru coffee comps re-accelerating (Q1 +8.3%, FY guide raised) and the sell-side is now catching up — Stephens initiated Overweight $80, Morgan Stanley to $88 in mid-July. But June's run to ~$72 cooled to the mid-$60s, and the… CVLG Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. LOW The margin-inflection leg broke at its own catalyst: Q2 (2026-07-29) adjusted OR 95.9% vs 94.6% PY — second straight quarter of YoY deterioration — revenue $332.9M missed $340.4M, and Stephens cut its 23-day-old target to $54 on 07-31.… DXCM DexCom, Inc. LOW CGM leader's recovery has aged from catalyst-pop to an analyst-revision grind — Mizuho $90 (7/15), Truist $87 (7/16) into a ~7% two-day pop to $76.65 — but price is high-$70s still under the 200-EMA and the confirmed July 30 Q2 print is… EOLS Evolus, Inc. LOW Evolus’s margin-led re-rating failed its published $8.00 weekly price test at the $7.84 close on 2026-09-11. The business case remains subject to delivery of management’s 2026 revenue guidance of $330–337 million and adjusted gross margin… EQNR Equinor ASA fresh LOW European winter gas-security theme re-accelerating; Equinor, the swing Norwegian pipeline supplier, held ~$40 through a Q2 double-miss on a $1.125B buyback bid. EVER EverQuote, Inc. LOW EverQuote’s insurance-advertising growth thesis needs price confirmation: a daily close above $27.87 before a weekly close below $23.82 would satisfy the price test. Third-quarter revenue below $198 million or adjusted EBITDA below $28… FAC Factorial Energy Inc. LOW Freshly de-SPAC'd solid-state battery name has fully unwound its debut mania — down ~78% from the $25.33 ATH to ~$5.67, breaking clean through the former $9.26 floor into a fresh 52-week low at $4.24. Cantor's $18 target now sits ~217%… FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. LOW Narrative and price have fully decoupled: FLY stacked a $144M CLPS award, a Moon BASE seat and a $13M Mars subcontract into a -47% drawdown, falling 9.6% on 7/16 on the awards headline itself. At $19.27 vs a $45 IPO price and 31% below the… FLYW Flywire Corporation Voting fresh LOW Flywire's execution re-rating requires Q3 growth confirmation and a recovery above the $19.54 market high. Growth above 16% excluding foreign-exchange effects and ancillary services, retention of full-year guidance, and a weekly close… FRD Friedman Industries Inc. LOW Tariff-driven HRC steel prices at multi-year highs powered record FY2026 (EPS $2.76, sales +46%); FRD hit an all-time-high close $37.42 on 2026-06-18 and was flagged overbought the same day. The narrative is maturing and priced near the… HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. LOW Warrior Met Coal’s Blue Creek ramp supports a cash-generation thesis, but price confirmation requires a weekly close above $110.18 before a weekly close below $95. Third-quarter results must sustain the sales outlook without further… KMTS Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd. LOW WCD share-capture story intact on fundamentals — FY26 revenue $95.1M (+59%), fiscal Q4 gross margin 54.8% — but the bid has thinned: the close was $25.64 on 2026-08-28, 9.6% under the $28.35 52-week high, with RSI(14) at 13.5 against 67.8… KRO Kronos Worldwide, Inc. fresh LOW Kronos Worldwide’s titanium-dioxide recovery needs higher third-quarter selling prices and continued segment profitability to validate August’s earnings rebound. The September 11 close of $8.14 has lost the earlier $8.20 shelf; a weekly… KRT Karat Packaging Inc. LOW Karat Packaging’s tariff-refund re-rating needs recurring sales and margin delivery to resume. Third-quarter results meeting the August 6 guidance and a weekly close above $49.80 would validate continuation; a weekly close below $40 would… LILAK Liberty Latin America Ltd. fresh LOW Post-catalyst drift: the $500M preferred special dividend and the June Malone/Nair insider cluster already drove a ~70% run off $4.76 to ~$8.30, and the tape has stalled at $7.33. Citi cut to Neutral 2026-07-10 with a $8 target already… LIND Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc. LOW Lindblad Expeditions’ occupancy-and-pricing rerating thesis failed when the 2026-09-11 weekly close of $25.67 breached its published $26.56 threshold. The August operating results support the underlying execution story, but they do not… MAMA Mama's Creations, Inc. fresh LOW The 2026-09-03 binary resolved for the fundamentals and against the tape: Q2 FY2027 revenue $54.58M (+55%) and EPS $0.06 both beat, gross margin recovered to 24.0% from 23.6%, and the shares still closed 2026-09-04 at $15.16, below the… MNTN MNTN, Inc. LOW MNTN, Inc.’s profitability re-rating depends on Q3 revenue exceeding the $86 million low end of August 4 guidance, positive net income and unchanged full-year guidance before a weekly close below $11.50 breaks the recovery case. The… NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. fresh LOW Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ remaining case is activist-led recovery toward the $16 shelf lost on 2026-09-04. A weekly close above $16 would establish initial repair, while a weekly close below $14 would invalidate the case. NP Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. fresh LOW The 2026-07-21 beat-and-raise has round-tripped: the 2026-08-14 weekly close of $31.71 is under the $32 post-print shelf, BMO cut to Market Perform on 2026-07-30, and the CFO sold 100,000 shares into $30.74–$32.12 on Aug 12–13. Operations… ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. fresh LOW Freight-cycle recovery in the top-margin LTL name is drawing a broadening upgrade cluster now printing above spot (Stifel $256 Jul 21, Truist $250 Jul 15, RJ $241 Jul 13), but growth is still rate and mix with tons/day negative. The… OEC Orion S.A. LOW Deep-cyclical carbon black where the 2024–25 tire-restock leg already failed (-32.5% from the $10.72 52-week high). What is left is a trough-and-deleverage read: Q2 2026 adj. EBITDA $58.2M (+26% sequential, -15% YoY), FY26 guide reaffirmed… OPI Office Properties Income Trust Common shares of beneficial interest fresh LOW Office Properties Income Trust's recovery depends on refinancing completion and property sales validating post-reorganization equity. Expected financing settlement on 2026-09-24 supplies a dated test; the price case requires a weekly close… PK Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. fresh LOW Park Hotels & Resorts’ earnings recovery needs a reclaim of the $15.32 August shelf and sustained guidance at the 2026-11-04 results. A weekly close below $14.60 or full-year adjusted FFO guidance below $1.90 per share invalidates the case. PSQL Pasqal Holding SA fresh LOW Pasqal's funded quantum-commercialisation story faces its first scheduled public-results test on 2026-09-24. A subsequent weekly close above the $10.00 merger reference would confirm the recovery case; a weekly close below $7.00 would… SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. LOW Skyward Specialty Insurance Group’s niche underwriting and Apollo fee income underpin an earnings-resilience thesis in softer insurance markets. Confirmation requires Q3 maintenance of the $4.80–$5.00 annual operating EPS guide and a… SNDR Schneider National, Inc. LOW Schneider National's contract-rate recovery needs the next report to sustain its improved Truckload margin and raised earnings outlook. The case is confirmed if margin matches the second quarter's 8.2% and the $0.90–$1.10 annual adjusted… SPIR Spire Global, Inc. LOW Spire Global’s government weather-data recovery thesis failed its $13 weekly-close condition at the $11.42 close on 2026-09-11. The September 18 delivery milestone tests execution, but cannot reverse that recorded failure. SVV Savers Value Village, Inc. LOW Busted-IPO thrift retailer's June recovery has stalled and rolled back toward its ~$9 base as the June 27 Russell-deletion passive-bid loss bites; the July 30 Q2 print is now an imminent, FX-exposed binary rather than a five-weeks-away… TDUP ThredUp Inc. LOW ThredUp's remaining case is a price recovery as buyer growth survives the August guidance reset. A weekly close above the $3.07 reference close of 2026-08-14 would satisfy that case; a weekly close below $2.50 invalidates it. TNXP Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. fresh LOW Tonix Pharmaceuticals’ Tonmya launch thesis requires Q3 sales and prescriptions to exceed Q2’s approximately $11.0 million and 12,592 prescriptions before a weekly close below $10.50. The 2026-09-18 close of $10.87 leaves weak price… VIOT Viomi Technology Co., Ltd fresh LOW Viomi Technology’s recovery now depends on appliance sales and profit after Nasdaq compliance was restored on 2026-09-18. The case requires second-half revenue above RMB740.0 million and positive net income before a weekly close below… WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. LOW Williams-Sonoma's August 26 growth-guidance increase supports a recovery toward Evercore ISI's September 9 target of $240. A weekly close above $240 would demonstrate that recovery; a weekly close below $225 would invalidate it. ZENA ZenaTech, Inc. LOW ZenaTech's recovery case requires a priced commercial drone-service contract and a weekly close above the market's August 28 close of $1.71. A weekly close below $1.52 invalidates that case; September's development announcements have not…