Dormant
AEM · Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on the last session; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Current thesis
Agnico Eagle Mines’ gold-driven cash generation supports a recovery case, tested by the September 16 Fed decision. A weekly close above the market’s August 28 reference close of $206.25 establishes recovery before a weekly close below $199 invalidates it.
Kill line
A weekly close below $199 invalidates the recovery thesis on the adjusted daily-bar series. Higher annual all-in sustaining cost guidance above US$1,550 per ounce would separately break the operating case.
Pick status
Open commitment catalyst 4d agoscored if the kill line above fires How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for AEM —
As of 13 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM): Agnico Eagle Mines’ gold-driven cash generation supports a recovery case, tested by the September 16 Fed decision. A weekly close above the market’s August 28 reference close of $206.25 establishes recovery before a weekly close below $199 invalidates it.
Kill line: A weekly close below $199 invalidates the recovery thesis on the adjusted daily-bar series. Higher annual all-in sustaining cost guidance above US$1,550 per ounce would separately break the operating case.
Most recent dated event on file: — catalyst 4d ago.
Current Thesis
Agnico Eagle Mines’ gold-driven cash generation supports a recovery thesis: a weekly close above the market’s 2026-08-28 reference close of $206.25 would establish recovery before a weekly close below $199 invalidates it. This is an inference from operating results, not a confirmed price reversal: the adjusted reference close was $200.36 on 2026-09-11.
The narrative is maturing — Benzinga’s retrospective performance articles on 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-03 show continued attention, while the 2026-09-11 relative strength index over 14 periods (RSI) was 39.1. Those observations support a familiar story with weaker momentum; they do not establish investor flows or ownership concentration.
The September project announcement extends the corporate story without resolving the immediate earnings question. Vizsla Copper’s 2026-09-08 release describes an agreement to acquire Delta and Helm Bay, with Agnico receiving equity and royalties; closing is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remains conditional. Vizsla Copper announcement
Bullish and bearish views on Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
The model's bull view on Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), in brief: Cash generation supports the thesis. Agnico’s 2026-07-29 release reported second-quarter free cash flow of US$1,335 million and realized gold prices of US$4,483 per ounce. These are measured operating results underpinning the recovery case. Company results filed with the SEC… The bear view: Production carries an identified constraint. Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Cash generation supports the thesis. Agnico’s 2026-07-29 release reported second-quarter free cash flow of US$1,335 million and realized gold prices of US$4,483 per ounce. These are measured operating results underpinning the recovery case. Company results filed with the SEC
- Cost guidance remained intact. On 2026-07-29, Agnico reiterated full-year all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$1,400–US$1,550 per ounce. A subsequent increase above that range would undermine the operating-leverage argument. Company results
- The broader advance remains measurable. The adjusted daily-bar series shows a three-month price increase of 23.4% as of 2026-09-11. That establishes an advance over the period, without establishing that the current decline has ended.
Bear Case
- Production carries an identified constraint. The 2026-07-29 release placed expected annual gold production near the lower end of 3.3–3.5 million ounces following the 2026-07-02 Barnat rock movement. Production guidance below that range would confirm deterioration. Company results
- Analyst support has narrowed. MarketBeat records Raymond James reducing its US-dollar target from $230 to $225 on 2026-09-04 while retaining its Outperform rating. This is an observable valuation revision, not evidence of actual fund outflows. Analyst action history
- Policy sensitivity remains unresolved. Benzinga’s 2026-09-04 headline attributed a gold-miner decline to strong employment data and September tightening expectations. That attribution is the publisher’s interpretation; the scheduled 2026-09-16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision has yet to occur. Federal Reserve calendar
Setup & Price Structure
The split- and dividend-adjusted daily series records a US$200.36 close on 2026-09-11, 20.2% below its US$251.19 trailing-year high, with RSI at 39.1. The existing $199 weekly-close invalidation remains the research boundary; the supplied latest close is above it. The intervening weekly closes are unavailable, so an earlier breach cannot be ruled out from this snapshot.
The market’s 2026-08-28 reference close of $206.25 defines the recovery test. A weekly close above $206.25 before invalidation would satisfy the price case; proximity to $199 and the unresolved policy event support low conviction. No moving-average value or volume series is available to establish a rising support line or expanding participation.
Benzinga’s 2026-08-24 and 2026-09-03 retrospective articles establish repeated retail-facing coverage. The sample is too small to support a crowding claim, and it supplies no measurement of short interest, options exposure or net subscriptions.
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
- 2026-10-07 — September FOMC minutes. The Federal Reserve schedules publication of the September meeting minutes for this date. The record provides detail on the reasoning behind the decision. Federal Reserve schedule
- ~2026-10-28, estimated — Third-quarter results. The earnings date remains unconfirmed. This later operating update matters because it tests the production and AISC guidance reiterated on 2026-07-29. Latest company results
Elapsed catalysts
- 2026-09-16 — FOMC decision and projections. The Federal Reserve calendar confirms the meeting and accompanying economic projections. The event tests the policy expectations cited in Benzinga’s 2026-09-04 miner-decline coverage; its direction is unresolved. Meeting calendar (passed 4d ago)
What Would Change Our Mind
Loss of the published $199 research boundary breaks the recovery structure: a weekly close below $199 invalidates the thesis, using the same adjusted series as the 2026-09-11 reference close. Conversely, a weekly close above the 2026-08-28 market close of $206.25 before that breach establishes the specified recovery.
The operating case also fails if management raises annual AISC guidance above US$1,550 per ounce or reduces production guidance below 3.3 million ounces, the boundaries published on 2026-07-29. Company guidance
Correlation Notes
This is a single-name recovery case with a gold-price exposure, rather than a demonstrated synchronized sector advance. Benzinga’s 2026-09-04 coverage reports miners declining together after employment data, but that event alone cannot establish a stable correlation with gold, interest rates or broad equities.
The 2026-09-08 Delta and Helm Bay agreement introduces company-specific news alongside that macro exposure. Its conditional fourth-quarter closing does not demonstrate near-term earnings independence from gold. Transaction announcement
Notes
- Canadian issuer dual-listed on NYSE; reports in USD under the MJDS regime (40-F/6-K), so there is no 10-Q to read between quarters.
- Quarterly dividend is US$0.45 (US$1.80 annualised), record date 2026-09-01, payable 2026-09-15 — a thin cushion against a metal-driven drawdown.
- Revenue is USD-denominated while the operating base sits in Canada, Australia, Finland and Mexico, so FX moves hit costs and the gold price in the same direction.
- Single macro headlines move the senior-miner complex 3–5% intraday, as on 2026-08-28; the equity is a levered proxy for the gold curve between prints.
Related · shared themes
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FSM
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IAG
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SSRM
SSR Mining Inc.
SSR Mining’s post-divestiture re-rating rests on cash and repurchases, with weaker momentum after the 2026-09-04 jobs report. A weekly close above the $39.21 market high would confirm the case before a weekly close below $33 invalidates it.