AEM · Agnico Eagle Mines
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $223.69
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $223.69, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 5.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $223.69, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (25 August 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. Full-year 2026 all-in sustaining cost below US$1,400 per ounce, or output above 3.5 million ounces, would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Agnico Eagle Mines reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 3.5 days of average trading to cover, −2.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Agnico Eagle Mines is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it. Third-quarter all-in sustaining cost rose to US$1,648 per ounce from US$1,331 a year earlier, and the company guides full-year output near the low end and cost near the high end of its ranges. The fourth-quarter and full-year report, expected around February 2027, settles whether costs landed inside guidance.
The shares closed at $185.96 on 11 November 2026, 27.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $255.24 set on 2 March 2026. They closed at $200.80 on 9 November 2026, then at $190.46 on 10 November 2026 and $185.96 on 11 November 2026, so the 9 November 2026 jump was given back within two sessions. The three-month change is +3.3%.
On price, the market has already moved to a level below JPMorgan's $193 target (Neutral, 30 October 2026) and well under Barclays' $215 target (Overweight, 2 November 2026), per Benzinga. That is a view that a cost-inflated gold producer deserves less than the August valuation.
Bullish and bearish views on Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
The bull case on Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), in brief: free cash flow remains large. The bear case: unit costs are rising faster than gold.
Bull case
- Free cash flow remains large. Agnico reported US$852 million of free cash flow for the third quarter on 28 October 2026, on a realized gold price of US$4,264 per ounce, up 22.7% from US$3,476 a year earlier.
- Guidance held after the Barnat disruption. The 28 October 2026 results kept output at 3.3–3.5 million ounces and all-in sustaining cost at US$1,400–US$1,550 per ounce. The company expects output near the low end and cost near the high end, with the Barnat open-pit adjustment at Canadian Malartic removing 60,000 to 80,000 ounces from second-half output.
- Net cash funds returns. Cash was US$3.613 billion and net cash US$3.416 billion on 28 October 2026. The company returned US$478 million through dividends and buybacks in the quarter and expects to return more than 50% of 2026 free cash flow at current gold prices.
- Analysts remain constructive. Barclays kept Overweight with a $215 target on 2 November 2026. A headline dated 9 November 2026 reports Freedom Broker upgrading the shares to Buy.
- Growth projects are advancing. The third-quarter release says Upper Beaver shaft sinking reached 732 metres on 30 September 2026, past the halfway point. The company expects to submit the project's environmental impact statement in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Bear case
- Unit costs are rising faster than gold. Third-quarter all-in sustaining cost was US$1,648 per ounce, above the top of the full-year range of US$1,550, and total cash cost was US$1,133 per ounce versus US$952 a year earlier (company results, 28 October 2026).
- Output is falling. Third-quarter gold production was 814,012 ounces versus 866,936 a year earlier, a 6.1% decline (company results via Kitco, 28 October 2026).
- The fourth quarter carries known cost items. The company said Nunavut sealift purchases add about US$21 million to fourth-quarter production costs. Mill shutdowns are planned at seven sites, and Detour Lake's mill is expected to run at about 60% of capacity during an extended SAG mill shutdown (28 October 2026 release).
- Diesel and consumables inflation persist. Kitco reported on 28 October 2026 that Nunavut diesel ran about 45% over budget even after hedging.
- Price targets are drifting lower. Barclays cut its target to $215 on 2 November 2026. JPMorgan's raised target of $193 on 30 October 2026 sits only 3.8% above the 11 November 2026 close of $185.96.
Price setup
The shares closed at $185.96 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $188.50 and the 200-day average of $187.89, both from adjusted closes as of that date. The two averages sit within about $0.61 of each other, so the shares trade in a flat range around them.
The 52-week closing low is $136.34 on 20 July 2026. The close of $180.36 on 13 August 2026 is the three-month reference. The 4 November 2026 close of $183.45 is the lowest close of the last six sessions shown, and the 9 November 2026 close of $200.80 is the highest.
The 52-week intraday high of $255.24 on 2 March 2026 is 27.1% above the last close. No company news in the last 30 days reports new share issuance, and the next results report falls outside the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: Federal Open Market Committee rate decision (second day of the December meeting). Gold and gold-mining shares have traded against the direction of US interest-rate expectations, so the decision sets the macro backdrop for the shares.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Upper Beaver environmental impact statement submission, which the company expects in the fourth quarter of 2026. Shows whether the permitting step for the company's largest named growth project stays on the schedule given in the third-quarter release.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Shows whether full-year all-in sustaining cost landed within US$1,400–US$1,550 per ounce and sets 2027 output and cost targets.
What would change the view
A daily close above $223.69, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (25 August 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. Full-year 2026 all-in sustaining cost below US$1,400 per ounce, or output above 3.5 million ounces, would point the same way.
What it trades with
Agnico trades mainly with the gold price and with US interest-rate expectations. Gold and gold-mining shares have tended to move against the direction of rate expectations, so the Federal Open Market Committee decision on 9 December 2026 is the nearest macro event.
Large gold producers move together on gold-price swings. Agnico's net cash of US$3.416 billion at 28 October 2026 separates it from peers carrying more debt, while its third-quarter all-in sustaining cost of US$1,648 per ounce is the company-specific weakness.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 realized gold price was US$4,264 per ounce, up 22.7% from US$3,476; free cash flow was US$852 million on operating cash flow of US$1,755 million. Agnico Eagle Q3 2026 results (Kitco 28 October 2026) · as of
- Third-quarter all-in sustaining cost was US$1,648 per ounce versus US$1,331 a year earlier (restated); total cash cost was US$1,133 per ounce. Agnico Eagle Q3 2026 results, Form 6-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter payable gold production was 814,012 ounces; 2026 guidance of 3.3–3.5 million ounces and all-in sustaining cost of US$1,400–US$1,550 per ounce now expected near the low end for output and the high end for cost. Barnat reduces second-half output by 60,000–80,000 ounces. Agnico Eagle Q3 2026 results, Form 6-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Fourth-quarter outlook: Nunavut sealift adds about US$21 million to production costs; Detour Lake mill runs near 60% of capacity during an extended Line 2 SAG mill shutdown; Upper Beaver shaft sinking reached 732 metres on 30 September 2026. Agnico Eagle Q3 2026 results, Form 6-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Cash was US$3.613 billion and net cash US$3.416 billion; US$478 million returned through dividends and buybacks in the quarter. Agnico Eagle Q3 2026 results (Kitco 28 October 2026) · as of
- Barclays kept Overweight and lowered its price target to $215 on 2 November 2026; JPMorgan kept Neutral and raised its target to $193 on 30 October 2026. Benzinga · as of
- Closing prices were $200.80 on 9 November 2026, $190.46 on 10 November 2026 and $185.96 on 11 November 2026; the 50-day average was $188.50 and the 200-day average $187.89 (adjusted closes). Daily closing prices, split- and dividend-adjusted bars · as of
Sources
- AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD - Form 6-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Agnico Eagle beats earnings expectations as higher gold prices offset rising mining costs · kitco.com ·
- Agnico posts strong third-quarter free cash flow · engineeringnews.co.za ·