SSRM · SSR Mining
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $31.85
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $31.85, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 17.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $31.85, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (16 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 448
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +16.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 58.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 27.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 608
- Price to earnings (×)
- 21.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.4
All filed numbers
What SSR Mining reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 448 | +16.0 | 58.2 | 27.3 |
| first filed | 444 | +9.5 | 60.9 | 43.2 |
| first filed | 582 | +83.7 | 66.5 | 51.6 |
| first filed | 522 | +61.4 | 64.0 | — |
| first filed restated | 386 | +49.9 | 57.1 | 32.4 |
| first filed restated | 406 | +119.4 | 59.8 | 41.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 127 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 252 | 79.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −6.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,621 |
| Debt ($M) at 31 March 2026, filed 5 May 2026; non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 66.1 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 31 March 2026, filed 5 May 2026 | 608 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 94.3 |
| Inventory ($M) | 575 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,270 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,418 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,810 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 21.5 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.8 days of average trading to cover, −16.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
SSR Mining's third-quarter report on 3 November 2026 weakened the case: adjusted earnings missed estimates and management said full-year all-in sustaining costs are trending about 10% above the top of guidance. The shares closed at $29.66 on 9 November 2026, 24.3% below the $39.21 52-week high, and the closing of the US$464 million Roxmore Resources acquisition plus the fourth-quarter cost run-rate settle what comes next.
The story is well known: the capital-return story has been well known since the August report, and the 3 November 2026 results added a cost reset rather than new interest. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a 0–100 momentum gauge, read 43.6 on 9 November 2026, up from 37.0 on 27 October 2026. The shares have recovered from the late-October low without regaining the $30.70 close of 14 October 2026.
Revenue was $447.7 million and adjusted earnings per share were $0.64 for the quarter, against estimates of $479.005 million and $0.88 reported by Benzinga on 3 November 2026. The balance sheet is not the issue: cash was $1.55 billion with no debt at 30 September 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on SSR Mining Inc.
The bull case on SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM), in brief: buybacks are large against the market value. The bear case: costs ran well above guidance.
Bull case
- Buybacks are large against the market value. The company repurchased 6.2 million shares for $193.6 million in the third quarter and about 16.6 million shares for over $530 million year to date (Form 8-K, 3 November 2026). Management described total capital returns as an effective yield of about 10% for 2026.
- The balance sheet absorbs Roxmore. Cash was $1.55 billion, no debt was outstanding, and liquidity was $2.15 billion including an undrawn $600 million revolver at 30 September 2026 (Form 8-K, 3 November 2026). The Roxmore price is paid from existing cash.
- Production guidance was kept. Third-quarter output was 103,585 gold-equivalent ounces, and the 450,000–535,000 ounce range for 2026 was maintained (Form 8-K, 3 November 2026).
- Brokers remain mostly positive. UBS kept a Buy rating on 4 November 2026 while lowering its target to $37. CIBC raised its target to $50 on 5 October 2026, and RBC Capital raised its target to $43 on 16 September 2026.
- Nevada growth has a long runway. The Converse project sits next to Marigold, and the company says it could add 150,000–170,000 ounces a year with first production targeted for 2033 (Form 8-K, 3 November 2026).
Bear case
- Costs ran well above guidance. Consolidated all-in sustaining cost was $2,527 per gold-equivalent ounce sold in the third quarter, against full-year guidance of $2,180–$2,260. Management attributed the overrun to royalties, diesel, labor and input inflation (Form 8-K, 3 November 2026).
- Marigold was weak. The mine produced 29,135 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,714 per ounce (Form 8-K, 3 November 2026). It is the asset the Roxmore deal is meant to extend.
- Free cash flow nearly vanished in the quarter. Free cash flow was $5.8 million, though it was $110.8 million before working-capital changes (Form 8-K, 3 November 2026). Cash fell to $1.55 billion from $1,783.0 million at 30 June 2026.
- Puna is being resequenced. The company is deferring lower-cost stockpiled ore while it evaluates a mine life extension, and Puna cost is trending above its guidance range (company release, 3 November 2026).
- Analyst targets are drifting down. UBS lowered its target to $39 on 14 October 2026 and to $37 on 4 November 2026. BMO Capital withdrew its $41 target on 28 September 2026.
Price setup
The 9 November 2026 close of $29.66 is 24.3% below the $39.21 52-week high (adjusted daily closes). The three-month price change was −8.7% at that date. The shares closed at $35.68 on 25 September 2026, $30.70 on 14 October 2026 and $29.26 on 27 October 2026.
A close below it would put the shares under the range they have held since the mid-July advance. The $30 area has acted as a ceiling since the 13 October 2026 Roxmore announcement.
Crowding evidence is thin. The shares sit well below the 52-week high, the earnings date has passed, and no insider transactions or share issuance appear in company news. The main buyer visible in the numbers is the company itself, through its repurchases.
Catalysts ahead
- Q4 2026 (date not announced): Roxmore shareholder vote and British Columbia court approval. Completes the US$464 million all-cash acquisition of the Converse project next to Marigold; the company gave no closing update on 3 November 2026.
- 11 December 2026: Dividend payment date. Confirms the capital-return program continues alongside the acquisition.
Elapsed catalysts
- 13 November 2026: Dividend record date for the $0.03 per share quarterly dividend. Sets which holders receive the 11 December 2026 payment; a small cash return next to the buyback. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $31.85, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (16 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
SSR Mining trades largely with the gold price. The 3.9% drop in gold to about $4,154 an ounce on 28 September 2026 (The Motley Fool) preceded the slide in the shares. Company-specific cost news has added to that pressure since 13 October 2026. Puna's silver output adds exposure to silver prices and Argentine currency and export-duty rules. The shares trade on both Nasdaq and the Toronto Stock Exchange, so moves follow North American gold-miner sentiment.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $447.7 million; adjusted earnings per share were $0.64 on adjusted net income of $130.7 million. Benzinga reported consensus estimates of $0.88 and $479.005 million for revenue. SSR Mining Form 8-K, 3 November 2026; Benzinga, 3 November 2026 · as of
- Consolidated third-quarter all-in sustaining cost was $2,527 per gold-equivalent ounce sold. Management said full-year all-in sustaining cost is trending about 10% above the upper end of the $2,180–$2,260 guidance range. SSR Mining Form 8-K, 3 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter production was 103,585 gold-equivalent ounces, including 29,135 ounces from Marigold. Full-year production guidance of 450,000–535,000 gold-equivalent ounces was kept. SSR Mining Form 8-K, 3 November 2026 · as of
- The company repurchased 6.2 million shares for $193.6 million in the third quarter, and about 16.6 million shares for over $530 million year to date. SSR Mining Form 8-K, 3 November 2026 · as of
- Cash was $1.55 billion with no debt outstanding at 30 September 2026, and total liquidity was $2.15 billion including an undrawn $600 million revolver. Third-quarter free cash flow was $5.8 million. SSR Mining Form 8-K, 3 November 2026 · as of
- The board declared a $0.03 per share dividend, payable 11 December 2026 to holders of record on 13 November 2026. SSR Mining third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- UBS kept a Buy rating on SSR Mining and lowered its price target to $37. Benzinga headline, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Adjusted daily close of $29.66 on 9 November 2026, 24.3% below the $39.21 52-week high; 14-day RSI 43.6. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- SSR MINING INC. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- SSR Mining Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · finviz.com
- SSR MINING REPORTS THIRD QUARTER 2026 RESULTS · s22.q4cdn.com
- Why SSR Mining Stock Is Falling Today · fool.com ·