SSL · Sasol
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $16.05
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $16.05, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 22.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $16.05, which would recover most of the early-November decline and show the shares leading the S&P 500. Interim results showing net debt excluding leases below US$3 billion with Secunda on its guidance would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Last catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Sasol reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 3.9 days of average trading to cover, +22.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $895K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $924K |
The thesis
Sasol Limited's shares are more likely to lag than beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fiscal 2026 earnings recovery is real, but the American depositary receipt (ADR) has fallen from its October peak, and the interim results for the half to 31 December 2026, due around 23 February 2027, decide whether net debt reaches the US$3 billion dividend threshold.
The ADR closed at $14.33 on 12 November 2026. That is 21.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $18.19 set on 23 October 2026 and below the 50-day average of $14.94. It is still above the 200-day average of $12.25, and the three-month change is 24.3%.
The decline came in steps. MarketBeat reported that the ADR opened at $16.36 on 2 November 2026 after a close of $17.22, a gap down of about 7% with no cause given. The ADR then closed at $15.19 on 5 November 2026, $14.83 on 6 November 2026 and $13.79 on 9 November 2026. No company announcement in that period explains the fall.
The annual general meeting is scheduled for 13 November 2026. The call does not rest on it, because no results of that meeting are public yet.
Bullish and bearish views on Sasol Limited
The bull case on Sasol Limited (SSL), in brief: fiscal 2026 earnings rose. The bear case: Secunda output fell after the shutdown.
Bull case
- Fiscal 2026 earnings rose. For the year ended 30 June 2026, adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 17% to 61 billion rand and sales volumes rose 4% (Sasol audited results, 1 September 2026).
- Mining output reached a six-year high. Business Day reported on 21 October 2026 that first-quarter mining output of fiscal 2027 was the highest in six years, which lowers external coal purchases. Sasol expects to buy 5 to 7 million tons of external coal in fiscal 2027 (Mining Weekly, 18 September 2026).
- Guidance was reaffirmed. Sasol said on 21 October 2026 that higher prices and supportive refining margins helped the July to September quarter and that it remained on track for full-year guidance (Business Day, 21 October 2026).
- Italian chemicals unit is back. Sasol International Chemicals announced on 30 October 2026 that it restarted the idled ISOSIV paraffin unit in Augusta, Italy, and lifted force majeure on its DETAL LAB, LAS and downstream derivatives.
- Debt is close to the dividend threshold. Net debt excluding leases fell 11% to US$3.3 billion at 30 June 2026 (Sasol audited results, 1 September 2026). Sasol's dividend policy needs it below US$3 billion.
Bear case
- Secunda output fell after the shutdown. Business Day reported on 21 October 2026 that Secunda Operations output fell from the June quarter after the planned phase shutdown. Fiscal 2027 guidance is 7.2 to 7.4 million tons, against about 7.2 million tons in fiscal 2026 (Business Day, 21 July 2026).
- Natref had an outage. Natref output fell on planned and unplanned shutdowns, and its residual crude desulphuriser was offline after a process safety incident, with a restart targeted for the end of October (Business Day, 21 October 2026).
- International chemicals volumes are easing. Sasol said first-quarter sales volumes were lower as conflict-related demand eased (Business Day, 21 October 2026).
- Cash conversion lagged earnings. Free cash flow fell 5% to 11.9 billion rand for fiscal 2026 (Sasol audited results, 1 September 2026). No dividend was paid for fiscal 2026.
- Executives sold into the rally. SEC Form 4 filings show the chief executive, the chief financial officer and four other executives sold shares at $12.70 on 8 September 2026 and at $14.14 on 28 September 2026, each alongside a share award. Executive vice president Vuyo Kahla sold 21,640 shares on 28 September 2026, the same number as the award.
- Criminal investigation at Secunda. FX Leaders reported on 7 October 2026 that South African authorities ran fresh searches in August over alleged hazardous waste discharge into the Vaal River. Sasol denies illegal dumping.
Price setup
The ADR closed at $14.33 on 12 November 2026, up from $13.79 on 9 November 2026 after the three-session fall from $15.19 on 5 November 2026. Adjusted daily closes put the 50-day average at $14.94 and the 200-day average at $12.25. The close sits between the two, below the shorter average.
The 52-week intraday high is $18.19 (23 October 2026). The 52-week closing low is $6.00 (5 December 2025). MarketBeat reported a close of $14.20 on 7 October 2026, the session before the gap up that started the October breakout, so the ADR has returned to the level where that advance began.
The market has priced in much of the fiscal 2026 recovery: the ADR closed 24.3% above its 14 August 2026 close of $11.53, and Bloomberg reported on 5 October 2026 that Sasol shares were up almost 120% for the year to date.
The ADR is a receipt for the Johannesburg-listed share, so the rand and oil prices both move the US price. MarketBeat's consensus rating on 2 November 2026 was Hold, from two Buy, four Hold and one Sell ratings.
Catalysts ahead
- ~23 February 2027 (est.): Interim results for the half to 31 December 2026. Shows whether net debt excluding leases fell below US$3 billion and whether margins and Secunda volumes held after the autumn rally.
Elapsed catalysts
- 13 November 2026: Sasol 47th annual general meeting, held electronically at 09:00. Shareholder votes and any management comments on net debt against the US$3 billion dividend threshold, Secunda volumes and the Vaal River investigation. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $16.05, which would recover most of the early-November decline and show the shares leading the S&P 500. Interim results showing net debt excluding leases below US$3 billion with Secunda on its guidance would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Sasol's earnings follow the oil price, refining margins and the rand. Yahoo Finance reported on 9 April 2026 that the ADR fell 8.4% in a day to $12.46 when crude dropped after a US–Iran ceasefire announcement. Geopolitical oil moves have driven the shares in both directions in 2026.
Sasol is also a South African emerging-market equity. Risk appetite toward the rand and Johannesburg listings affects it. The Johannesburg share price fell 4.0% to 237.15 rand on 9 November 2026, according to Sharenet, in line with the fall in the ADR that session.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 17% to 61 billion rand and sales volumes rose 4% for the year ended 30 June 2026. Sasol audited results, 1 September 2026 · as of
- Net debt excluding leases fell 11% to US$3.3 billion; free cash flow fell 5% to 11.9 billion rand. Sasol audited results, 1 September 2026 · as of
- First quarter of fiscal 2027: higher prices and supportive refining margins, mixed operations; Secunda and Natref output fell from the previous quarter; mining output at a six-year high; full-year guidance reaffirmed. Business Day, 21 October 2026 · as of
- Sasol International Chemicals restarted the idled ISOSIV paraffin unit in Augusta, Italy, and lifted force majeure on DETAL LAB, LAS and downstream derivatives. Sasol company news, 30 October 2026 · as of
- The SSL ADR gapped down about 7% to open at $16.36 on 2 November 2026 after a prior close of $17.22; MarketBeat's consensus rating was Hold (two Buy, four Hold, one Sell). MarketBeat, 2 November 2026 · as of
- The SSL ADR closed at $14.33 on 12 November 2026, 21.2% below its 52-week intraday high of $18.19 set on 23 October 2026. Adjusted daily closes · as of
- Chief executive Simon Baloyi and chief financial officer Walt Bruns each sold shares at $14.14 on 28 September 2026, alongside share awards. SEC Form 4 filings, 1 October 2026 · as of
- Sasol's 47th annual general meeting is scheduled for 13 November 2026 at 09:00, held by electronic communication. Sasol general meeting page · as of
Sources
- General meeting and annual general meeting · sasol.com
- MarketBeat ·
- businessday.co.za ·
- Sasol delivers stronger FY2026 performance and strengthens financial resilience · sasol.com
- Sasol tops emerging market peers on oil-from-coal bonanza · engineeringnews.co.za ·
- Sasol's external coal purchases to continue to fall as it targets 34Mt from own mines · engineeringnews.co.za ·
- Sasol Ltd. (SSL) Falls 8.4% as Energy Stocks Lose Momentum · finance.yahoo.com ·
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