SRPT · Sarepta Therapeutics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $19.68
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $19.68, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 11.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $19.68, which would put the shares well above both their 50-day and 200-day averages and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter ELEVIDYS net product revenue above the $83.5 million reported for the third quarter would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 381
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −4.5
- Gross margin (%)
- −6.6
- Operating margin (%)
- −2.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 176
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 21.4
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.9
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 10.2
All filed numbers
What Sarepta Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 381 | −4.5 | — | −2.4 |
| first filed | 401 | −34.3 | — | 3.3 |
| first filed | 731 | −1.9 | — | 49.0 |
| first filed | 443 | −32.7 | −6.6 | −92.9 |
| first filed | 399 | −14.5 | 54.9 | −25.9 |
| first filed | 611 | +68.4 | 59.0 | 18.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −25.8 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −115 | −28.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +5.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 186 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 9.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 176 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 879 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 857 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 21.4 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −61.1% on a year | 189 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 369 |
| Inventory ($M) | 876 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,529 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,723 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,702 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 10.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 20.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.5 days of average trading to cover, −2.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $417K |
The thesis
Sarepta Therapeutics is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Sales of ELEVIDYS, its Duchenne muscular dystrophy gene therapy, fell to $83.5 million in the third quarter of 2026 from $98.1 million in the second quarter, and the company guided the fourth quarter to the same level as the third. The RNA-drug data guided for the fourth quarter of 2026 are the next test of the pipeline.
The shares closed at $16.01 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $18.73 and the 200-day average of $18.54, and 11.5% lower than three months earlier. They fell after the 5 November 2026 results, which beat estimates, and again in the session of 9 November 2026 when company news reported a decline following an FDA personnel change. The market is pricing a flat ELEVIDYS franchise: RBC Capital's $18 target (6 November 2026) sits above the close, and the quarter's beat has
Bullish and bearish views on Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.
The bull case on Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT), in brief: guidance floor moved up. The bear case: ELEVIDYS sales fell again.
Bull case
- Guidance floor moved up. Sarepta's 5 November 2026 release raised the low end of 2026 net product revenue guidance by $50.0 million, to $1.25 billion–$1.3 billion. It also lowered the high end of combined non-GAAP research, development and administrative expense guidance by $25.0 million, to $800 million–$825 million.
- Quarter beat on revenue and adjusted earnings. Total revenue was $381.4 million against a $352.96 million estimate, and adjusted earnings were $0.13 a share against $0.06 expected, per Benzinga's results summary of 5 November 2026. Non-GAAP operating income was $22.9 million.
- ELEVIDYS outlook is flat. Sarepta expects fourth-quarter ELEVIDYS net product revenue in line with the third quarter, subject to normal variability for a one-time therapy. A flat quarter would end the decline that began after the second quarter.
- Cash is about $1 billion. Cash, equivalents, restricted cash and investments were $998.7 million on 30 September 2026, per the company's results release.
- Analyst stance is improving. Deutsche Bank upgraded the shares to Hold on 10 November 2026, per company news, and RBC Capital raised its target to $18 from $17 on 6 November 2026 while keeping Sector Perform.
- Older-patient data were positive. Sarepta reported on 30 September 2026 that 25 patients dosed at ages 8 to 12 improved on the North Star Ambulatory Assessment by 3.32 points more than 99 external controls over two years (p=0.0022).
Bear case
- ELEVIDYS sales fell again. Third-quarter ELEVIDYS net product revenue of $83.5 million compares with $98.1 million in the second quarter, per Sarepta's releases of 5 November 2026 and 5 August 2026. The flat fourth-quarter outlook sits at the lower level.
- The non-ambulatory path narrowed. Tech Times reported on 6 November 2026 that Sarepta will not resume enrollment in ENVISION, the confirmatory Phase 3 trial for non-ambulatory patients, which had recruited about half its intended sample. The company is relying on a roughly 25-patient open-label cohort, with FDA engagement planned for the first quarter of 2027.
- The GAAP result is a loss. Sarepta reported a third-quarter net loss of $28.5 million, or $0.27 a share, including a $62.0 million take-or-pay charge for Catalent manufacturing obligations in cost of sales.
- Total revenue still declined. Third-quarter revenue of $381.4 million was down 5% from $399.4 million a year earlier. Collaboration and other revenue of $57.6 million, which follows Roche milestone and supply timing, supported the total.
- Liver safety still limits use. The label remains limited to ambulatory patients and carries a boxed warning for acute serious liver injury and acute liver failure, per the 5 November 2026 release.
- The shares gave back the results move. They closed at $17.82 on 6 November 2026 and at $16.01 on 12 November 2026, after a decline reported on 9 November 2026 following an FDA personnel change.
Price setup
The shares closed at $16.01 on 12 November 2026. The 52-week high is $24.68 (intraday, 26 January 2026), and the last close is 35.1% below it. The 52-week closing low is $14.86 on 31 July 2026.
Closes since the results: $17.57 on 5 November 2026, $17.82 on 6 November 2026, $17.24 on 9 November 2026, $16.42 on 10 November 2026, $16.68 on 11 November 2026 and $16.01 on 12 November 2026. The 3-month change is a decline of 11.5%, measured from the $18.10 close of 14 August 2026.
The last close is below both the 50-day average ($18.73) and the 200-day average ($18.54), as of 12 November 2026. Both averages sit near RBC Capital's $18 target.
SEC Form 4 filings of 8 September 2026 show four senior executives had shares withheld for tax at $22.22 on 4 September 2026. The Form 4 rows list no open-market sales.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): End of the guided fourth-quarter 2026 window for SRP-1003 (myotonic dystrophy type 1) and SRP-1001 (facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy) multiple-ascending-dose data. Shows whether the RNA pipeline meets its timetable and supports Phase 3 plans.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Expected completion of enrollment in ENDEAVOR Cohort 8, the roughly 25-patient non-ambulatory ELEVIDYS study. Sets the timing of the 12-week liver-safety and expression data that Sarepta plans to take to the FDA in the first quarter of 2027.
- 28 February 2027: FDA action date on traditional approval for AMONDYS 45 and VYONDYS 53. Decides whether the two exon-skipping drugs that carried third-quarter product sales move from accelerated to traditional approval.
What would change the view
A daily close above $19.68, which would put the shares well above both their 50-day and 200-day averages and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter ELEVIDYS net product revenue above the $83.5 million reported for the third quarter would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Sarepta trades with Duchenne and rare-disease gene-therapy peers and reacts to FDA leadership news, as the decline of 9 November 2026 showed. The drop of 8 September 2026 after Novartis's pelacarsen Phase 3 miss shows the shares also react to RNA-therapy readouts from other companies. Roche, which holds ELEVIDYS rights outside the US, affects reported revenue through milestone and supply timing in the collaboration line.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 net product revenue was $323.8 million: $240.3 million from PMO drugs and $83.5 million from ELEVIDYS. Total revenue was $381.4 million, down 5% from $399.4 million a year earlier. Sarepta Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Sarepta raised the low end of 2026 net product revenue guidance by $50.0 million, to $1.25 billion–$1.3 billion, and expects fourth-quarter ELEVIDYS net product revenue in line with the third quarter. Sarepta Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Third-quarter GAAP net loss was $28.5 million ($0.27 per share), including a $62.0 million Catalent take-or-pay charge; non-GAAP net income was $15.6 million ($0.13 per share). Sarepta Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Cash, equivalents, restricted cash and investments were $998.7 million. Sarepta Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 ELEVIDYS net product revenue was $98.1 million and PMO drug revenue was $230.6 million. Sarepta Q2 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.13 a share beat a $0.06 estimate, and sales of $381.4 million beat a $352.961 million estimate. Benzinga, 5 November 2026 · as of
- RBC Capital kept Sector Perform and raised its price target to $18 from $17. Benzinga, RBC note 6 November 2026 · as of
- Sarepta will not resume enrollment in the ENVISION Phase 3 trial in non-ambulatory patients; ENDEAVOR Cohort 8 (about 25 patients) is due to finish enrolling by the end of 2026, with FDA engagement planned for the first quarter of 2027. Tech Times, 6 November 2026 · as of
Sources
Related · shared themes
CPIX
Cumberland Pharmaceuticals
Cumberland Pharmaceuticals shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 while the ifetroban NDA for Duchenne heart disease has no date; $80.6…
ETON
Eton Pharmaceuticals
Eton Pharmaceuticals is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months, after third-quarter revenue of $57.9 million…
XERS
Xeris Biopharma Holdings
Xeris Biopharma's shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because Recorlev sales rose 93% to $71.5…
COAG
Hemab Therapeutics Holdings
Hemab Therapeutics is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: its pivotal sutacimig trial has started and cash…
See also · stocks to watch