THC · Tenet Healthcare Corporation New
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $259.71
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $259.71, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are up 8.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $259.71, under the 25 September 2026 close that marked the September low and below every post-report close. A fourth-quarter report that cuts the $5.05–5.20 billion adjusted EBITDA range would separately break the operating case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 5,631
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 31.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 3,328
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −10,569
- Price to earnings (×)
- 6.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.5
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 6.2
All filed numbers
What Tenet Healthcare Corporation New reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 5,631 | +6.5 | 31.1 |
| first filed | 5,628 | +6.8 | 26.7 |
| first filed | 5,368 | +2.8 | 24.1 |
| first filed | 5,527 | +8.9 | 15.4 |
| first filed | 5,289 | +3.2 | 16.8 |
| first filed | 5,271 | +3.2 | 15.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 29 July 2026 | 1,340 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 3,814 | 1,219 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −9.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 4,238 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 910 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3,328 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,674 |
| Debt ($M) | 13,243 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −10,569 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −85.7% on a year | 734 |
| Receivables ($M) | 2,595 |
| Inventory ($M) | 340 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 5,444 |
| Market value ($M) | 22,765 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 33,334 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 6.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 6.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 14.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.3 days of average trading to cover, +0.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $40.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $63.2M |
The thesis
Tenet Healthcare is more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, because hospital margin reached 19.2% in the third quarter and the company raised its 2026 outlook for the second straight quarter. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether margin holds once a $147 million Conifer benefit drops out of the comparison.
Tenet's third-quarter release (29 October 2026) reported hospital adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $818 million at a 19.2% margin, against a 15.1% margin a year earlier. Same-hospital admissions rose 2.8%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance moved to $5.05–5.20 billion from $4.830–5.030 billion.
The shares closed at $286.86 on 12 November 2026, 4.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $301.44 set on 5 November 2026. They gained 7.1% over three months. The market has priced in the beat: seven of the analyst target changes reported between 30 October 2026 and 4 November 2026 were increases, and the shares closed at $292.97 on 11 November 2026 before easing the next session.
Bullish and bearish views on Tenet Healthcare Corporation New
The bull case on Tenet Healthcare Corporation New (THC), in brief: margin gain extended to a second quarter. The bear case: a one-time item flatters the quarter.
Bull case
- Margin gain extended to a second quarter. Hospital margin was 19.2% in the third quarter after 18.0% in the second (Tenet releases, 29 October 2026 and 23 July 2026). Hospital adjusted EBITDA rose to $818 million from $607 million a year earlier.
- Results beat estimates. Third-quarter adjusted earnings were $6.64 a share against a $4.62 estimate. Revenue was $5.631 billion against $5.516 billion (company news, 29 October 2026). The 10-Q filed the same day shows revenue of $5.63 billion against $5.29 billion a year earlier.
- Guidance rose across the board. Adjusted earnings guidance moved to $22.05–23.01 a share from $20.30–21.69, against a $21.01 estimate. Adjusted free cash flow guidance rose to $2.825–3.125 billion (Tenet release, 29 October 2026).
- Ambulatory margin improved. USPI, Tenet's outpatient surgery business, earned $537 million of adjusted EBITDA, up 9.1%, at a 39.2% margin against 38.6% a year earlier (Tenet release, 29 October 2026).
- Analyst targets sit above the price. Leerink's target is $342, Wells Fargo's $321, Deutsche Bank's $320 (from $260), Truist's $305, RBC's $304, KeyBanc's $300 and Barclays' $297 (Benzinga, 30 October to 4 November 2026). Mizuho raised its target to $305 from $290 on 2 November 2026, and Baird, at Neutral, raised its target to $285 from $280 on 30 October 2026.
Bear case
- A one-time item flatters the quarter. Tenet's release shows $646 million of Conifer contract-termination revenue in the third quarter, including a $233 million catch-up the company calls timing-related. The net favorable effect on adjusted EBITDA was $147 million. FinChannel (2 November 2026) split that into a $97 million timing adjustment and about $50 million from transition activities. The amount does not recur.
- Analysts expect 2027 estimates to fall first. Guggenheim expects initial downward revisions to 2027 EBITDA estimates after the report, according to FinChannel (2 November 2026). Guggenheim lowered its target to $306 on 30 October 2026.
- Directors and executives sold in late summer. CEO Saumya Sutaria sold 100,000 shares at an average of $276.36 on 24 August to 25 August 2026. Chief Operating Officer Lisa Foo sold 24,000 shares at $266.32 on 31 August 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). Directors Robert Kerrey and Richard Mark also sold in September. No later insider sales appear in Form 4 filings through 12 November 2026.
- Policy swings sentiment. Benzinga reported on 4 November 2026 that hospital stocks rallied after Democrats won the midterm elections. A rally tied to a political outcome can reverse if the expected policy change does not arrive.
- Not all EBITDA belongs to common shareholders. Tenet's 2026 outlook includes $910–960 million of net income available to noncontrolling interests (Tenet release, 29 October 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $286.86 on 12 November 2026. The 50-day average was $267.4 and the 200-day average $224.34 as of that close, so the price sits above both. The 52-week closing low was $161.37 on 4 June 2026.
The post-report move peaked with a close of $292.97 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high of $301.44 came on 5 November 2026, when the shares closed at $286.46. Closes since then: $283.33 (6 November 2026), $289.00 (9 November 2026), $290.27 (10 November 2026), $292.97 (11 November 2026) and $286.86 (12 November 2026). The close on 14 August 2026, the three-month reference, was $267.90.
The most recent debt action in Tenet's filings is the 22 September 2026 Form 8-K for $2.0 billion of 6.250% senior notes due 2034.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether the $5.05–5.20 billion adjusted EBITDA range is met and what hospital margin looks like without the Conifer timing benefit.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $259.71, under the 25 September 2026 close that marked the September low and below every post-report close. A fourth-quarter report that cuts the $5.05–5.20 billion adjusted EBITDA range would separately break the operating case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Hospital margin gives back its gain once the Conifer timing benefit is out of the comparison. Confirmed by: Hospital adjusted EBITDA margin below the 19.2% reported on 29 October 2026, or a cut to the $5.05–5.20 billion adjusted EBITDA range.
- The post-election hospital rally reverses on policy disappointment. Confirmed by: Hospital peers falling together on federal policy news, or peer outlook cuts tied to exchange enrollment or Medicaid funding.
- Admissions growth slows or payer mix worsens. Confirmed by: same-hospital admissions growth below the 2.8% reported for the third quarter, with Tenet citing lower exchange or Medicaid supplemental revenue.
- Ambulatory growth leans on price per case rather than volume. Confirmed by: USPI adjusted EBITDA margin below the 39.2% reported on 29 October 2026 alongside falling same-facility surgical cases.
- Analysts cut 2027 estimates because the Conifer benefit inflates the 2026 base. Confirmed by: a wave of 2027 EBITDA estimate reductions and target cuts following the Guggenheim view reported on 2 November 2026.
What it trades with
Tenet trades with the other US hospital operators, which also reported third-quarter results. Becker's Hospital Review compared the 2026 outlook changes of HCA, Tenet, Community Health Systems and Universal Health Services after the quarter. Exchange enrollment, Medicaid supplemental payments and federal pricing scrutiny affect the group together. Tenet's ambulatory unit adds exposure to outpatient surgery volumes.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 hospital adjusted EBITDA was $818 million, a 19.2% margin versus 15.1% a year earlier; same-hospital admissions rose 2.8%. Tenet Form 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $5.05–5.20 billion from $4.830–5.030 billion; adjusted free cash flow guidance to $2.825–3.125 billion. Tenet Form 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $6.64 against a $4.62 estimate; revenue was $5.631 billion against $5.516 billion. Company news, Q3 2026 results · as of
- Adjusted EPS guidance for 2026 was raised to $22.05–23.01 from $20.30–21.69, against a $21.01 estimate. Company news, Q3 2026 results · as of
- Net favorable adjusted EBITDA impact of $147 million from the accelerated Conifer revenue cycle transition, including a $233 million catch-up in contract termination revenue. Tenet Form 8-K, Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Leerink raised its price target to $342; Wells Fargo to $321; Deutsche Bank to $320 from $260; Truist to $305; RBC to $304; KeyBanc to $300; Barclays to $297. Benzinga analyst actions · as of
- CEO Saumya Sutaria sold 100,000 shares at an average of $276.36 on 24 August to 25 August 2026; COO Lisa Foo sold 24,000 shares at $266.32 on 31 August 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- Guggenheim expects initial downward revisions to 2027 EBITDA estimates; Mizuho raised its target to $305 from $290 and Baird raised its to $285 from $280. FinChannel, Tenet earnings analyst summary · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR
- Tenet Healthcare sails past Q3 earnings estimates, boosts 2026 guidance · fiercehealthcare.com
- How HCA, Tenet, CHS and UHS shifted their 2026 outlooks after Q3 · beckershospitalreview.com
- Tenet Healthcare Q3 2026: A 42% EPS Beat With an Asterisk · 247wallst.com
- finchannel.com ·
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