MUR · Murphy Oil
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $34.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
8.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $34.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 5.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $34.00, which would put the shares under the 9 November 2026 close of $34.55 and show falling crude outweighing the production beat. Fourth-quarter production below the 174,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day low end of guidance would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 855
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +16.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 100.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 30.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,134
- Price to earnings (×)
- 11.3
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.0
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 7.9
All filed numbers
What Murphy Oil reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 855 | +16.6 | — | 30.0 |
| first filed | 928 | +33.5 | — | 38.2 |
| first filed | 734 | +10.2 | — | 18.8 |
| first filed | 625 | −6.9 | 100.0 | 9.5 |
| first filed | 733 | −3.3 | 100.0 | 0.8 |
| first filed | 696 | −13.4 | 100.0 | 13.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 235 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 468 | 171 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,767 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 500 |
| Debt ($M) | 1,634 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,134 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 459 |
| Inventory ($M) | 64.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 5,385 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,279 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,413 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 7.9 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 11.3 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.2 days of average trading to cover, +1.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.9M |
The thesis
Murphy Oil is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Operations beat guidance on 4 November 2026, but crude fell sharply the following week, so oil prices and fourth-quarter delivery decide whether the shares recover toward their October high.
Third-quarter 2026 production was 186,495 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), including 84,164 barrels of oil per day, above the 171,000–179,000 boe/d guidance range (company 8-K, 4 November 2026). Full-year production guidance rose to 176,000–178,000 boe/d. Adjusted earnings were $1.08 per diluted share against a $0.87 estimate, according to Benzinga's earnings summary.
Brent crude settled at $92.57 a barrel on 9 November 2026, down $5.75 on the day, and had lost 16% in the week before, its sharpest weekly drop since the start of the pandemic, according to Nation Thailand. The report attributed the fall to easing Iran tensions, steady flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a rise in OPEC output of 1.38 million barrels per day in October. The shares closed at $34.55 that day and recovered to $36.33 on 12 November 2026.
The market already prices a weaker oil path: the shares closed on 12 November 2026 at 19.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $45.03 set on 23 October 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Murphy Oil Corp.
The bull case on Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR), in brief: output beat the top of guidance. The bear case: realized oil prices fell.
Bull case
- Output beat the top of guidance. Third-quarter production of 186,495 boe/d exceeded the 179,000 boe/d top of the range. The company cited minimal storm downtime in the Gulf of America (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Full-year guidance raised. Murphy lifted 2026 production guidance to 176,000–178,000 boe/d. Fourth-quarter guidance is 174,000–182,000 boe/d (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- New wells are producing. Chinook #8 in the Gulf of America began production in the third quarter at a peak gross rate of about 15,000 boe/d. Lac Da Vang in Vietnam began producing on 27 September 2026 (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Spending drops sharply next quarter. Murphy guided fourth-quarter capital spending to $190 million, against $422.2 million attributable to Murphy in the third quarter. Full-year capex guidance stays at $1.5–$1.6 billion (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Exploration acreage keeps widening. Murphy signed four production sharing contracts covering the Elombo, Etinde Exploration, Ntem and Tilapia blocks offshore Cameroon (company news, 11 November 2026). It was also awarded six Zone G exploration licenses offshore Israel, held 50% by a Murphy subsidiary as operator and 50% by Ratio Energies, about 25 kilometres southwest of the Leviathan gas field (World Oil, 10 November 2026).
- Shares held up as crude fell. Murphy closed at $36.33 on 12 November 2026, above the $34.55 close of 9 November 2026 that followed Brent's $5.75 drop (adjusted daily closes).
Bear case
- Realized oil prices fell. Third-quarter realized oil was $86.48 a barrel in US onshore and $89.38 in US offshore, against $99.55 and $99.36 in the second quarter (8-K, 4 November 2026 and 5 August 2026). Brent has since fallen from $103.60 on 3 November 2026 to $92.57 on 9 November 2026, so fourth-quarter realizations are set to start lower.
- Free cash flow was thin. Third-quarter free cash flow was $48.2 million. Adjusted free cash flow was negative $8.4 million (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- No buybacks again. Murphy repurchased no shares in the third quarter and left $550 million on the authorization. It paid $50 million in dividends at $0.35 per share (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Debt rose. Total debt was $1.63 billion, about $80 million above the second quarter, mainly from a finance lease for the Lac Da Vang floating storage vessel. Cash was about $500 million and net debt $1.134 billion (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Production steps down next quarter. The fourth-quarter guidance midpoint of 178,000 boe/d is below the 186,495 boe/d reported for the third quarter (8-K, 4 November 2026).
- Storm exposure runs to month-end. Gulf of America output is exposed to hurricane shut-ins until the Atlantic season ends on 30 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $36.33 on 12 November 2026, after closes of $36.31 on 5 November 2026, $35.96 on 6 November 2026, $34.55 on 9 November 2026, $34.72 on 10 November 2026 and $35.93 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $45.03 on 23 October 2026, and the 52-week closing low is $28.85 on 12 November 2025.
The 200-day average of adjusted closes is $36.69 as of 12 November 2026, just above the last close, and the 50-day average is $38.74. The three-month price change is 6.2%. The 9 November 2026 close of $34.55 is the lowest close since the third-quarter report in the closes through 12 November 2026.
Crude is the main outside input. Murphy's realized prices tracked the benchmark lower between the second and third quarters, and Brent fell further in the week of 9 November 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 November 2026: End of the Atlantic hurricane season. Gulf of America shut-ins before this date would cut fourth-quarter volumes below the 174,000–182,000 boe/d guidance.
What would change the view
A daily close below $34.00, which would put the shares under the 9 November 2026 close of $34.55 and show falling crude outweighing the production beat. Fourth-quarter production below the 174,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day low end of guidance would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Lower crude prices compress cash flow, as realized US oil prices already fell from about $99 in the second quarter to about $86–$89 in the third. Confirmed by: Brent settling below the $92.57 level of 9 November 2026 for a sustained period, or fourth-quarter realized prices below third-quarter levels.
- Free cash flow stays thin and buybacks do not resume against the $550 million authorization. Confirmed by: another quarter with no repurchases, or adjusted free cash flow staying negative as in the third quarter at negative $8.4 million.
- Gulf of America hurricane disruption cuts fourth-quarter output. Confirmed by: a company disclosure of storm-related shut-ins before the season ends on 30 November 2026.
- Fourth-quarter production steps down from the third-quarter level and delivery falls short of guidance. Confirmed by: reported fourth-quarter production below the 174,000 boe/d low end of guidance.
- Exploration spending in new basins (Cameroon, Israel, Mauritania) adds cost before it adds output, and dry wells are expensed when drilled. Confirmed by: a dry-hole charge in a quarterly report, or full-year capex rising above the $1.5–$1.6 billion guidance.
What it trades with
Murphy trades with crude oil and with other US oil and gas producers, including offshore and Eagle Ford operators. Its realized prices ($86.48 a barrel US onshore in the third quarter) follow the crude benchmarks directly. Gulf of America volumes link it to hurricane risk shared with Gulf producers such as Shell, Chevron and BP. Its exploration programmes in Vietnam, Mauritania, Cameroon and Israel add company-specific drivers that do not move with crude.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 production was 186,495 boe/d including 84,164 barrels of oil per day, above the 171,000–179,000 boe/d guidance range. Murphy Oil Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Adjusted third-quarter earnings were $1.08 per diluted share ($158.4 million); net income attributable to Murphy was $171.1 million, or $1.17 per diluted share. Murphy Oil Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Full-year 2026 production guidance raised to 176,000–178,000 boe/d; fourth-quarter guidance is 174,000–182,000 boe/d with capex of $190 million. Murphy Oil Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter realized oil prices were $86.48 per barrel US onshore and $89.38 US offshore, against $99.55 and $99.36 in the second quarter. Murphy Oil Q3 and Q2 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter free cash flow was $48.2 million and adjusted free cash flow negative $8.4 million; no shares repurchased, $550 million remains authorized. Murphy Oil Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Total debt was $1.63 billion, about $80 million above the prior quarter, mainly from a finance lease for the Lac Da Vang vessel; cash about $500 million; net debt $1.134 billion. Murphy Oil Q3 2026 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Brent crude settled at $92.57 a barrel, down $5.75, after a 16% weekly fall; WTI settled at $86.85. Nation Thailand, Brent losses top US$7 a barrel after 9 November settlement · as of
- Murphy won six Zone G exploration licenses offshore Israel, 50% held by a Murphy subsidiary as operator and 50% by Ratio Energies LP. World Oil, 10 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- MURPHY OIL CORP - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Brent losses top US$7 a barrel after November 9 settlement · nationthailand.com
- Murphy Oil enters Eastern Mediterranean with six Zone G licenses offshore Israel · worldoil.com ·
- Brent falls 1% on November 3 amid hopes for peace deals · nationthailand.com
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