MYRG · MYR Group
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $250
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Results, 28 October 2026: Q3 2026 revenue of $1.26 billion, diluted EPS of $3.82 and record backlog of $3.68 billion (up 38.2% year over year) all exceeded the prior note's tests, which asked whether the $3.16 billion backlog held.
Price against the kill line
9.2% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $250.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 19.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $250, under the 5 November 2026 close of $246.59 only by a few dollars and the low of the autumn decline, which would show the market rejecting the post-report improvement. Fourth-quarter 2026 backlog below the $3.16 billion reported at 30 June 2026 would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,259
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +32.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 13.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 137
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −190
- Price to earnings (×)
- 22.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.0
All filed numbers
What MYR Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,259 | +32.5 | 13.6 | 6.8 |
| first filed | 1,082 | +20.1 | 13.2 | 6.3 |
| first filed | 1,000 | +20.0 | 13.4 | 6.5 |
| first filed | 974 | +17.3 | 11.4 | 4.8 |
| first filed | 950 | +7.0 | 11.8 | 4.9 |
| first filed | 900 | +8.6 | 11.5 | 4.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 82.3 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 193 | 60.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 249 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 112 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 137 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 26.0 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 216 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −190 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −7.3% on a year | 281 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +43.8% on a year | 3,367 |
| Receivables ($M) | 800 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | 819 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,252 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,442 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 16.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 22.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.4 days of average trading to cover, +17.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $10.5M |
The thesis
MYR Group, the electrical contractor, is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its record backlog and higher margins are real, and the fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected in late February 2027, shows whether backlog keeps building.
The 28 October 2026 third-quarter release showed revenue of $1,259.0 million against $950.4 million a year earlier. Operating income was $85.1 million, a 6.8% margin versus 4.9%, and diluted earnings per share were $3.82 versus $2.05. Backlog reached $3.68 billion at 30 September 2026, up 38.2% from $2.66 billion a year earlier.
StockStory reported that revenue beat the $1.16 billion consensus and earnings beat the $2.94 consensus, and that the shares rose 10.4% to $309.11 after the report. The shares closed at $278.43 on 12 November 2026. That is 44.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $503.56 set on 30 June 2026, and 16.7% lower than the $334.39 close of 14 August 2026. The market is pricing a business that has stepped up its earnings but is still treated as a stock that peaked in June.
Bullish and bearish views on MYR Group, Inc.
The bull case on MYR Group, Inc. (MYRG), in brief: backlog stepped up sharply. The bear case: cash generation lagged earnings.
Bull case
- Backlog stepped up sharply. Backlog was $3.68 billion at 30 September 2026, against $3.16 billion at 30 June 2026 and $2.66 billion a year earlier. Commercial and industrial (C&I) backlog was $2.39 billion and transmission and distribution (T&D) $1.29 billion (company release, 28 October 2026).
- Both segments earned more per dollar of revenue. C&I operating margin was 8.7% against 6.4% a year earlier, on $704.5 million of revenue. T&D margin was 9.3% against 8.2%, on $554.5 million of revenue (company release, 28 October 2026).
- Acquisitions contributed a full quarter. Valley Electric and Comet Electric closed on 1 July 2026, and C&I revenue rose to $704.5 million from $447.0 million in the third quarter.
- A buyback is authorized. The board approved up to $100.0 million of repurchases, effective 4 November 2026 and expiring 3 November 2027. Nine-month repurchases in 2026 totaled $1.3 million, against $75.0 million a year earlier.
- An upgrade followed the report. KeyBanc upgraded the shares to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $361 price target on 5 November 2026. Seeking Alpha headlined the call as a diversified revenue base acting as a hedge against the current macro backdrop.
Bear case
- Cash generation lagged earnings. Third-quarter free cash flow was $9.2 million against $65.4 million a year earlier, on operating cash flow of $46.1 million and capital spending of $36.9 million (company release, 28 October 2026).
- Debt has risen. Cash was $26.0 million at 30 September 2026 against $150.2 million at year-end 2025. Funded debt was $215.8 million against $59.0 million, and the company said the buyback will use cash and revolver borrowings.
- The post-report rally faded, then recovered only in part. The shares reached $309.11 after the 28 October 2026 report according to StockStory. They closed at $246.59 on 5 November 2026, then at $262.91 on 6 November 2026 and $278.43 on 12 November 2026.
- No numeric guidance. The release referred to infrastructure opportunities ahead without giving revenue or margin targets, so the backlog is the main forward evidence.
- Insiders sold near the highs. Form 4 filings showed open-market sales at $441–$460 in early June 2026. The most recent Form 4, filed for 4 September 2026, was a director's exercise of 758 options.
Price setup
The shares closed at $278.43 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $284.78 and the 200-day average of $336.59 (adjusted daily closes). The 52-week intraday high is $503.56 from 30 June 2026, and the 52-week closing low is $203.61 from 21 November 2025.
Recent closes show a sharp swing. The shares closed at $246.59 on 5 November 2026, $262.91 on 6 November 2026, $279.26 on 9 November 2026, $272.81 on 10 November 2026, $280.67 on 11 November 2026 and $278.43 on 12 November 2026. The $246.59 close is the low of the recent decline, and the move since then has taken the shares back to the area of the 50-day average.
The 200-day average sits above the price, which means the longer trend is still down. Whether the shares can close above the 50-day average of $284.78 on rising backlog evidence is the near-term test of the bull case. KeyBanc's $361 target is the only post-report target in view.
Catalysts ahead
- 2 December 2026: Management meetings at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference, Palm Beach (UBS clients only). A management appearance before year-end could update bookings and large projects expected to enter backlog.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results (date not yet confirmed by the company). Shows whether backlog builds beyond the record $3.68 billion and whether margins hold.
What would change the view
A daily close below $250, under the 5 November 2026 close of $246.59 only by a few dollars and the low of the autumn decline, which would show the market rejecting the post-report improvement. Fourth-quarter 2026 backlog below the $3.16 billion reported at 30 June 2026 would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Cash conversion weakens as growth accelerates, leaving buybacks and acquisitions dependent on the revolver. Confirmed by: another quarter of free cash flow near the $9.2 million reported for the third quarter of 2026, or funded debt rising further above $215.8 million.
- Backlog proves uneven and fails to build further after the record $3.68 billion. Confirmed by: a fourth-quarter 2026 backlog below $3.68 billion, or large projects that management expects by the end of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027 slipping.
- Macro and policy swings move the shares independent of results, as in the early-November decline that KeyBanc tied to the election. Confirmed by: further declines in the shares while backlog and margins are reported unchanged.
- Few post-report analyst targets leave valuation support thin. Confirmed by: KeyBanc's $361 target cut, or a first Sell or Underperform rating from a covering firm.
What it trades with
MYR Group trades with electrical-infrastructure contractors and utility-spending names. KeyBanc's commentary, reported on 5 November 2026, tied the early-November decline to the post-election market move despite limited exposure to datacenters and to Texas. Datacenter work was about 6% of annual revenue per management's first-quarter 2026 commentary, so hyperscaler spending news touches a minority of the revenue base. Utility capital budgets drive T&D, and commercial construction and large-project timing drive C&I.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1,259.0 million versus $950.4 million a year earlier; operating income was $85.1 million (6.8% margin versus 4.9%); diluted EPS was $3.82 versus $2.05. MYR Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Backlog was $3.68 billion at 30 September 2026, up 38.2% from $2.66 billion a year earlier; C&I $2.39 billion, T&D $1.29 billion. MYR Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- C&I operating margin was 8.7% (6.4% a year earlier) on $704.5 million revenue; T&D operating margin was 9.3% (8.2%) on $554.5 million revenue. MYR Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter free cash flow was $9.2 million versus $65.4 million a year earlier; cash $26.0 million and funded debt $215.8 million at 30 September 2026 versus $59.0 million at year-end 2025. MYR Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Board approved a share repurchase program of up to $100.0 million, effective 4 November 2026 and expiring 3 November 2027, funded by cash and revolver borrowings. MYR Group third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Third-quarter revenue beat the $1.16 billion consensus and earnings of $3.82 beat the $2.94 consensus; shares rose 10.4% to $309.11 after the report. StockStory, third-quarter 2026 earnings coverage · as of
- KeyBanc upgraded MYR Group to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $361 price target. StreetInsider, 5 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Finviz ·
- MYR Group (NASDAQ:MYRG) reports bullish Q3 2026, stock jumps 10.4% · stockstory.org
- KeyBanc Upgrades MYR Group (MYRG) to Overweight · streetinsider.com
- MYR Group raised at KeyBanc as diversified revenue base a hedge against current macro · seekingalpha.com
- Finviz
Related · shared themes
PSIX
Power Solutions International
Power Solutions International's record third-quarter profit, raised second-half outlook and new multi-year engine supply deal support the…
CAT
Caterpillar
Caterpillar's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500, as political risk to data-center building and margins near the bottom of target…
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
Custom Truck One Source's rental fleet growth and a third 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance raise, to $447.5–$460 million, make a modest lead…
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure
Solaris Energy Infrastructure is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: it beat third-quarter guidance…