SVV · Savers Value Village
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $11.30
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
7.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $11.30, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 0.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $11.30, which would put the shares well over the $10.25 August secondary price and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter U.S. comparable-store sales above 5.9%, or a raised fiscal 2026 comparable-sales outlook, would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 3 October 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 463
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +8.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 56.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 9.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 117
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −603
- Price to earnings (×)
- 25.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.2
All filed numbers
What Savers Value Village reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 463 | +8.5 | 56.9 | 9.8 |
| first filed | 448 | +7.4 | 56.9 | 9.4 |
| first filed | 403 | +8.9 | 54.6 | 3.1 |
| first filed | 465 | +15.6 | 55.4 | 9.3 |
| first filed | 427 | +8.1 | 55.9 | 8.5 |
| first filed | 417 | +7.9 | 55.2 | 8.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 33.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 62.2 | 23.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 27 September 2025 | +2.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 263 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 146 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 117 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 60.1 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 663 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −603 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 19.2 |
| Inventory ($M) | 46.9 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 470 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,607 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,210 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 15.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 25.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 7.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.4 days of average trading to cover, −7.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $241K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $244.4M |
The thesis
Savers Value Village is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. U.S. comparable-store sales slowed to 5.9% in the third quarter from 6.6% in the second, and Ares funds still held about 65.30% of the shares after the August secondary offering. The fourth-quarter report in early 2027 decides whether U.S. momentum holds.
The company reported third-quarter net sales of $463.1 million, up 8.5% (8.9% in constant currency), with total comparable-store sales up 4.2% (Form 8-K, 5 November 2026). Adjusted earnings were $0.16 per share against a $0.15 estimate, and sales beat a $459.05 million estimate (company news, 5 November 2026). The shares closed at $9.10 on 5 November 2026 and $9.84 on 6 November 2026.
At an Innovation Day on 10 November 2026 the company set a three-year target of adjusted EBITDA margin gains of 50 to 100 basis points a year, reaching a high-teens margin (Form 8-K, 10 November 2026). The shares closed at $10.07 that day, down from $10.61 on 9 November 2026, and at $10.09 on 12 November 2026. The August secondary price of $10.25 sits just above that close.
Bullish and bearish views on Savers Value Village, Inc.
The bull case on Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV), in brief: earnings beat with wider margins. The bear case: U.S. comparable sales slowed.
Bull case
- Earnings beat with wider margins. Third-quarter net income was $23.4 million, or $0.15 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was $75.9 million, a 16.4% margin (Form 8-K, 5 November 2026). Cost of merchandise sold fell to 43.1% of net sales from 44.1% a year earlier.
- Outlook floor rose. Fiscal 2026 comparable-store sales growth is guided to 3.5% to 4.0% from 3.0% to 4.0%, and adjusted EBITDA to $270 million to $275 million from $265 million to $275 million (Form 8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Multi-year margin targets. The company's 10 November 2026 Form 8-K targets high-single-digit revenue growth, about 25 new stores a year, net leverage under 2 times by the end of 2027, and annual adjusted EBITDA margin gains of 50 to 100 basis points from 2027.
- Pricing software is spreading. ThriftIQ is live in 108 stores and has priced more than 40 million items; Autotagger and image capture are expected to save more than $10 million a year once rolled out by early 2028 (Form 8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Broker support. BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $15 price target on 11 November 2026 (company news).
Bear case
- U.S. comparable sales slowed. U.S. comparable-store sales rose 5.9% in the third quarter against 6.6% in the second (releases, 5 November 2026 and 6 August 2026). The U.S. is the model of the recovery, and the multi-year plan assumes only low-single-digit comparable growth (Form 8-K, 10 November 2026).
- Sales ceiling came down. Fiscal 2026 net sales guidance narrowed to $1.77 billion to $1.78 billion from $1.77 billion to $1.79 billion (Form 8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Shares fell on Innovation Day. The close was $10.07 on 10 November 2026 after $10.61 on 9 November 2026, so the long-term targets did not hold the earlier gain.
- Sponsor supply remains. Ares-related holders sold 23 million shares at $10.25 on 13 August 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings), and Ares funds held about 65.30% of shares outstanding afterward (424B5, 12 August 2026). The close of $10.09 on 12 November 2026 is below that price.
- Canada is a small contributor. Canadian comparable-store sales rose 1.5% in the third quarter after 0.8% in the second (10-Q, quarter ended 3 October 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $10.09 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $9.53 and the 200-day average of $9.39 (adjusted daily closes). The three-month change is −5.3%, measured from the $10.66 close on 14 August 2026.
The 52-week high is $12.69, reached intraday on 7 August 2026, and the last close is 20.5% below it. The 52-week closing low is $7.10 on 19 May 2026. Closes since the third-quarter report: $9.84 (6 November 2026), $10.61 (9 November 2026), $10.07 (10 November 2026), $9.91 (11 November 2026), $10.09 (12 November 2026).
The $10.25 secondary price is the nearest overhead reference. The 9 November 2026 close of $10.61 is the highest close since the report.
The market has priced in the third-quarter beat and the raised floor: the shares rose from $9.10 on 5 November 2026 to $10.61 on 9 November 2026, then gave back part of the gain after Innovation Day. BTIG's $15 target (11 November 2026) sits well above the close.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results, with fiscal 2027 outlook. Shows whether U.S. comparable-store sales hold at or above the 5.9% of the third quarter and whether the 3.5% to 4.0% fiscal 2026 comparable-sales outlook is met.
What would change the view
A daily close above $11.30, which would put the shares well over the $10.25 August secondary price and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter U.S. comparable-store sales above 5.9%, or a raised fiscal 2026 comparable-sales outlook, would also show it.
What it trades with
Savers sells used clothing and household goods and trades with value-oriented consumer retail, which benefits when shoppers trade down. Ares' ownership of about 65.30% ties share-price moves to sponsor sales. Canadian and Australian dollar translation also matters, since both countries are a material part of sales.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales were $463.1 million, up 8.5%; total comparable-store sales rose 4.2% (U.S. 5.9%, Canada 1.5%). Third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter net income was $23.4 million ($0.15 per diluted share); adjusted EBITDA was $75.9 million, a 16.4% margin. Third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Fiscal 2026 outlook: net sales $1.77 billion to $1.78 billion (was $1.77 billion to $1.79 billion); comparable-store sales growth 3.5% to 4.0% (was 3.0% to 4.0%); adjusted EBITDA $270 million to $275 million (was $265 million to $275 million). Third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Company targets adjusted EBITDA margin gains of 50 to 100 basis points a year from 2027, a high-teens margin within three years, and net leverage under 2 times by the end of 2027. Innovation Day Form 8-K · as of
- ThriftIQ is live in 108 stores and has priced more than 40 million items; Autotagger and image capture are expected to save more than $10 million a year after rollout through early 2028. Innovation Day Form 8-K · as of
- BTIG reiterated a Buy rating on Savers Value Village with a $15 price target. Company news headline, BTIG · as of
- Ares Management sold 23,000,000 shares at $10.25 in the August secondary offering; the company received no proceeds. SEC Form 4 filings and Form 8-K · as of
- The company ended the third quarter with 384 stores (193 U.S., 172 Canada, 19 Australia) and repaid $51.9 million of its term loan from cash. Third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K) · as of
Sources