SXC · Suncoke Energy
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $9.90
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
6.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $9.90, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 10.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $9.90, under the 2 October 2026 close and the post-earnings trading range. A cut to the guided 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (now above $265 million) or a weak 2027 Granite City coke agreement would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Materials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 27 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 486
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −0.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 8.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 119
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −543
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 13.3
All filed numbers
What Suncoke Energy reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 486 | −0.2 | 8.4 |
| first filed | 475 | +9.5 | 6.1 |
| first filed | 455 | +4.4 | 1.0 |
| first filed | 480 | −1.2 | −20.4 |
| first filed | 487 | −0.6 | 2.8 |
| first filed | 434 | −7.8 | 2.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 32.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −55.1 | 21.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 197 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 77.6 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 119 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 57.6 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 601 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −543 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | 506 |
| Receivables ($M) | 209 |
| Inventory ($M) | 181 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 598 |
| Market value ($M) | 895 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,438 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 13.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.1 days of average trading to cover, −1.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $159K | $0 |
The thesis
SunCoke Energy's industrial-services pivot is lifting earnings, and the shares have held most of the move since the third-quarter report. On 27 October 2026 the company reported Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, adjusted) of $76.9 million versus $59.1 million a year earlier, and said full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA should modestly exceed the high end of its $250–265 million range. What settles the case next is 2027 coke volume, set by the Granite City renewal and the fourth-quarter report.
The adjusted close was $10.66 on 10 November 2026, 5.9% below the 52-week high of $11.33, which was reached after the $10.63 close of 28 October 2026. The story is well known: the earnings recovery is well known, the scheduled event has passed, and analysts have since moved targets only modestly (B. Riley to $11 on 2 November 2026, StoneX to $12 on 2026-10-28/29).
Bullish and bearish views on Suncoke Energy Inc
The bull case on Suncoke Energy Inc (SXC), in brief: Industrial services keeps growing. The bear case: Coke volumes are shrinking.
Bull case
- Industrial services keeps growing. Third-quarter 2026 Industrial Services Adjusted EBITDA was $32.1 million versus $18.2 million a year earlier (SunCoke 8-K, 27 October 2026). Steel-customer volumes serviced were 5.86 million tons versus 3.83 million.
- Guidance moved up again. Management raised the 2026 range to $250–265 million from $230–250 million on 30 July 2026, then said on 27 October 2026 that the result should modestly exceed the top. Operating cash flow is guided to $270–285 million.
- Domestic coke earnings rose on fewer tons. Domestic Coke Adjusted EBITDA was $51.1 million versus $44.0 million, or $58.40 per ton, on sales of 875,000 tons versus 951,000 (27 October 2026 release).
- Terminal volumes are strong. Terminals handled 6.42 million tons in the third quarter versus 5.24 million a year earlier.
- Analysts are moving targets up. StoneX kept a Buy rating and raised its target to $12. B. Riley kept a Neutral rating and raised its target to $11 from $9 on 2 November 2026.
- Payout is maintained. The company announced a $0.12 quarterly dividend, its 29th consecutive, payable 1 December 2026 (company announcement, 9 November 2026).
Bear case
- Coke volumes are shrinking. Third-quarter Domestic Coke sales fell to 875,000 tons from 951,000, and second-quarter sales were 878,000 versus 943,000. Full-year 2026 sales are guided to about 3.4 million tons.
- Industrial Services slipped from the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $32.1 million in the third quarter against $34.4 million in the second (releases of 30 July 2026 and 27 October 2026).
- Net income and revenue were flat. Net income attributable to SunCoke was $21.8 million versus $22.2 million, and revenue was $485.9 million versus $487.0 million (27 October 2026 release).
- Corporate costs doubled. Corporate and Other expense was $6.3 million versus $3.1 million a year earlier.
- Debt is still large. Long-term debt was $600.8 million against $57.6 million of cash at 30 September 2026.
- Price sits near the top of published targets. B. Riley's $11 target is below the $11.33 52-week high and only slightly above the $10.66 close of 10 November 2026. Coverage is thin, so one target change moves the average.
Price setup
The adjusted close was $10.66 on 10 November 2026. That is 5.9% below the 52-week high of $11.33, and the three-month price gain is 16.2% (adjusted daily closes). The 14-day relative strength index was 58.0, down from 65.5 on 28 October 2026, so the shares have cooled from an overbought reading.
The $10.63 close of 28 October 2026 and the $10.57 high of 15 October 2026 now act as nearby reference levels below the price. The 2 October 2026 close, which anchors the kill line of $9.90, sits further down. The shares pulled back from the high without giving back the post-earnings gain.
Crowding evidence is limited. Sell-side coverage is thin, no insider transactions or share issuance appear in recent filings, and the next earnings date is about three months away.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Record date for the $0.12 quarterly dividend. Sets which holders receive the 29th consecutive payout, confirming the dividend is maintained.
- 1 December 2026: 29th consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share payable. Confirms the payout is maintained alongside the higher earnings outlook.
- ~22 January 2027 (est.): Granite City cokemaking arrangement for 2027. The current agreement covers about 590,000 tons only through 31 December 2026, so renewal sets the 2027 coke volume.
- ~18 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance. First 2027 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and the year-end leverage figure.
What would change the view
A daily close below $9.90, under the 2 October 2026 close and the post-earnings trading range. A cut to the guided 2026 Adjusted EBITDA (now above $265 million) or a weak 2027 Granite City coke agreement would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Terminal and mill-services volumes fall back once war-related disruption fades. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter terminal throughput well below the 6,424,000 tons of the third quarter, or Industrial Services Adjusted EBITDA below the $32.1M of the third quarter.
- Domestic coke volumes keep shrinking and 2027 tonnage is set lower. Confirmed by: a Granite City 2027 agreement below about 590,000 tons, or full-year 2026 Domestic Coke sales below the roughly 3.4M tons guided.
- The shares trade close to or above most published analyst targets, leaving little room if growth slows. Confirmed by: further targets set at or below the $10.66 close of 10 November 2026, against B. Riley's $11 and StoneX's $12.
- Debt remains large relative to cash. Confirmed by: long-term debt rising above the $600.8M reported at 30 September 2026, or year-end gross leverage reported above the 2.34 times guided in July.
What it trades with
SunCoke trades with US steel and metallurgical coal conditions through its blast-furnace coke contracts, and with industrial activity through the mill-services and terminal businesses. Its coke prices are largely contract-based, so earnings follow customer volumes more than spot coal prices. The shares have behaved as a small-cap cyclical industrial, with a dividend that anchors some holder interest.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was $76.9M versus $59.1M a year earlier; net income attributable to SunCoke was $21.8M ($0.25 per diluted share); revenue was $485.9M versus $487.0M. SunCoke Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Q3 2026 Industrial Services Adjusted EBITDA was $32.1M versus $18.2M; Domestic Coke Adjusted EBITDA was $51.1M versus $44.0M on 875,000 tons versus 951,000. SunCoke Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to modestly exceed the high end of the $250M–$265M range; operating cash flow guided to $270M–$285M. SunCoke Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Long-term debt was $600.8M and cash $57.6M at quarter end. SunCoke Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- B. Riley Securities kept a Neutral rating and raised its price target to $11 from $9. Company news headline (B. Riley note) · as of
- StoneX kept a Buy rating and raised its price target to $12. Company news headline (StoneX note) · as of
- Adjusted daily close was $10.66, 5.9% below the 52-week high of $11.33; three-month price change 16.2%; 14-day RSI 58.0. Split/dividend-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- SunCoke Energy, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- SunCoke Energy, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- SunCoke Energy Inc declares cash dividend · finviz.com
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