LILA · Liberty Latin America
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $11.22
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $11.22, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 15.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $11.22, a level above the 52-week high of $10.33 set on 12 November 2026, which would show the shares leading despite the unresolved Puerto Rico debt. A signed Puerto Rico agreement leaving the parent more than the 25% stake it proposed would also show this.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,117
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +0.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 79.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 16.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 403
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −7,880
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.2
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 15.5
All filed numbers
What Liberty Latin America reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,117 | +0.4 | 79.1 | 16.2 |
| first filed | 1,103 | +1.5 | 79.2 | 16.4 |
| first filed | 1,083 | −0.1 | 78.3 | 13.4 |
| first filed | 1,160 | +1.7 | 77.3 | 10.8 |
| first filed | 1,113 | +2.1 | 77.7 | 16.9 |
| first filed | 1,087 | −2.8 | 78.6 | −30.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −31.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −172 | −70.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −6.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 906 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 503 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 403 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 546 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 8,426 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −7,880 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +11.1% on a year | 209 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 679 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 445 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,916 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 9,795 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 15.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 21.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 0.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.0 days of average trading to cover, +5.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $6.2Mand 14 trades without a stated price | $275K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $127.6Mand 27 trades without a stated price | $108.5M |
The thesis
Liberty Latin America's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 4 November 2026 missed estimates, and the question that sets the equity's value, how much of Liberty Puerto Rico the parent keeps, has no signed answer. A signed Puerto Rico agreement settles it; the October 2027 maturity of the unit's notes forces it.
The shares closed at $10.29 on 11 November 2026, the highest close of the past year, and reached an intraday 52-week high of $10.33 on 12 November 2026. They closed that session at $9.73, 5.8% below the high. The close was $8.91 on 6 November 2026, so the move came after the miss, with no company news in the period that names a cause.
Creditors proposed in a 15 September 2026 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to take 100% of the unit's equity. The parent countered with 25%. The company said then that negotiations had ceased and no agreement was reached.
In this note's view, the price already reflects a good outcome for the parent. The shares are up 12.9% over three months, from $8.62 on 14 August 2026 to $9.73 on 12 November 2026, while the only published creditor terms would leave the parent with nothing from the unit.
Bullish and bearish views on Liberty Latin America Ltd.
The bull case on Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILA), in brief: margins and leverage improved. The bear case: the report missed on both lines.
Bull case
- Margins and leverage improved. Panabee's 4 November 2026 summary of the third-quarter report puts the Adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization (Adjusted OIBDA) margin at 40.6%, up 160 basis points from a year earlier. Consolidated net leverage was 4.5 times, down from 4.6 times in the previous quarter. Panabee
- Cash flow turned positive year to date. Quartr's summary reports year-to-date Adjusted free cash flow before distributions of $10 million, against negative $128 million a year earlier. Management expects most of the annual cash flow in the fourth quarter. Quartr
- Buybacks shrink the share count. Quartr reports common share repurchases above $150 million through 31 October 2026. Panabee puts that at about 10% of year-end 2025 common shares.
- Cost savings are contracted. The Amdocs IT-services agreement took effect in October 2026 for up to 10 years. Management expects lower employee-related costs in the fourth quarter of 2026 and through 2027, per Quartr.
- Insiders bought in a $20 security. SEC Form 4 filings show director Alfonso De Angoitia bought 249,375 shares at an average $20.30 on 9 November to 11 November 2026. John C. Malone, a 10% owner, bought 11,017 shares at $20.08 on 6 November 2026. Those prices are about double the common shares' closes of $8.91–$10.29 in the same sessions, which points to a different security, such as the Series A preference shares, rather than the common stock.
Bear case
- The report missed on both lines. Third-quarter sales were $1.117 billion against a $1.139 billion estimate. Loss per share was $0.42 against a $0.10 loss estimate, per 4 November 2026 consensus headlines. Quartr reports a net loss of $55.8 million.
- Puerto Rico leverage is extreme. Panabee reports the Liberty Puerto Rico borrowing group's covenant net leverage at 12.8 times, with residential fixed revenue down 3% and business-to-business revenue down 5%.
- A maturity is approaching. Panabee notes $1.16 billion of Liberty Puerto Rico senior secured notes due October 2027 remain unresolved with creditors. It says stalled talks risk enforcement against the unit's assets and its removal from the parent's accounts.
- Other units are softer. Panabee reports Liberty Networks' rebased Adjusted OIBDA fell 16% and Cable & Wireless Panama business revenue fell 19%. Quartr says Hurricane Melissa will weigh on Liberty Caribbean revenue through the rest of 2026.
- The rise followed a miss. The close went from $8.91 on 6 November 2026 to $10.29 on 11 November 2026 with no new separation terms published. The 12 November 2026 session reached $10.33 intraday and closed at $9.73.
Price setup
The last close was $9.73 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 50-day average of $8.58 and the 200-day average of $6.85, both from adjusted daily closes. The 52-week closing low was $4.80 on 18 June 2026, so the shares have roughly doubled from it.
The recent closes were $9.29 on 9 November 2026, $10.04 on 10 November 2026 and $10.29 on 11 November 2026. The close on 12 November 2026 reversed part of that gain from an intraday high of $10.33. The three-month price change is 12.9%.
A close back near the 50-day average would erase the post-report advance. A close above the 12 November 2026 intraday high would extend it.
Catalysts ahead
- TBD (no date set): Any signed Liberty Puerto Rico restructuring or separation agreement. A deal fixes how much Liberty Puerto Rico equity the parent keeps and how much debt leaves the group.
- TBD (pending): Peruvian regulatory clearance of the WOW Tel stake sale to an América Móvil subsidiary, pending since 21 July 2026. Clearance turns a signed sale into cash; a block removes a completed step in the simplification.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report. Management expects most annual free cash flow and lower employee costs in the fourth quarter, so this report tests the positive cash flow case.
- October 2027: Maturity of $1.16 billion of Liberty Puerto Rico senior secured notes. The approaching maturity sets the deadline by which an agreed form must exist.
What would change the view
A daily close above $11.22, a level above the 52-week high of $10.33 set on 12 November 2026, which would show the shares leading despite the unresolved Puerto Rico debt. A signed Puerto Rico agreement leaving the parent more than the 25% stake it proposed would also show this.
What it trades with
Liberty Latin America trades on its own restructuring more than on any sector move, so its day-to-day correlation with the broader telecom group is loose. Its results depend on Puerto Rico, the Caribbean and Latin American markets, and on currency and hurricane-season effects in those markets. Leveraged cable and telecom operators with large debt maturities react to credit-market conditions in a similar way.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 sales were $1.117 billion against a $1.139 billion estimate; loss per share was $0.42 against a $0.10 loss estimate. Benzinga headline on Q3 2026 results · as of
- Third-quarter net loss was $55.8 million; year-to-date Adjusted free cash flow before distributions was $10 million versus negative $128 million a year earlier. Quartr Q3 2026 earnings summary · as of
- Adjusted OIBDA margin was 40.6%, up 160 basis points from a year earlier; consolidated net leverage was 4.5 times versus 4.6 times in the previous quarter. Panabee summary of the Q3 2026 report · as of
- Liberty Puerto Rico borrowing group covenant net leverage was 12.8 times; $1.16 billion of senior secured notes are due October 2027. Panabee summary of the Q3 2026 report · as of
- Creditor term sheets gave participating creditors 100% of reorganized Liberty Puerto Rico equity versus a parent counter-proposal retaining 25%; the company stated negotiations had ceased. Company SEC filing of 15 September 2026, as summarized by TradingView and Panabee · as of
- Director Alfonso De Angoitia bought 249,375 shares at an average $20.30 on 9 November to 11 November 2026, a price about double the common shares' closes in those sessions. SEC Form 4 filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- John C. Malone, a 10% owner, bought 11,017 shares at $20.08 on 6 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 10 November 2026 · as of
- The shares closed at $10.29 on 11 November 2026 and $9.73 on 12 November 2026; the intraday 52-week high was $10.33 on 12 November 2026. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
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