LNC · Lincoln National
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $46.48
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
9.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $46.48, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 5.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $46.48, which would put the shares back near the 5 August 2026 high and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings above the roughly flat outlook with Group Protection margin inside 8% to 9% would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 5,481
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +20.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 31.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 3,351
- Price to earnings (×)
- 2.4
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.2
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 1.1
All filed numbers
What Lincoln National reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 5,481 | +20.3 | 31.7 |
| first filed | 4,542 | +12.3 | 36.2 |
| first filed | 5,306 | +13.1 | −4.6 |
| first filed | 4,922 | −2.8 | 18.6 |
| first filed | 4,555 | +10.8 | 11.5 |
| first filed | 4,044 | −21.5 | 21.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 1,735 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 3,313 | 1,399 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 688 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 9,791 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 6,440 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 3,351 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 9,424 |
| Market value ($M) | 7,990 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,639 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 1.1 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 2.4 |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.7 days of average trading to cover, −17.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $3.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $10K | $7.2M |
The thesis
Lincoln National Corporation's capital repair is showing up, but its earnings are not, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter adjusted operating income of $1.72 per diluted share missed the $1.96 consensus (Benzinga, 5 November 2026), with Group Protection the weak spot. The fourth-quarter report, expected around early February 2027, settles whether earnings catch up with the balance sheet.
Lincoln's estimated risk-based capital (RBC) ratio stayed above 420%, holding company liquidity reached $1.0 billion net of prefunding, and share repurchases resumed (8-K, 5 November 2026). The shares have since recovered the report-day loss: they closed at $41.60 on 4 November 2026, $39.16 on 5 November 2026 and $42.56 on 11 November 2026. The price therefore already looks through the quarter's miss and leans on the capital story.
Management's own outlook limits the near-term upside: fourth-quarter earnings roughly flat with the third quarter excluding the annual assumption review, and a full-year Group Protection margin at or modestly below the low end of its 8% to 9% range (MarketBeat, 5 November 2026).
Bullish and bearish views on Lincoln National Corp.
The bull case on Lincoln National Corp. (LNC), in brief: capital measures held at the report. The bear case: Group Protection fell short.
Bull case
- Capital measures held at the report. Lincoln's 8-K of 5 November 2026 shows an estimated RBC ratio above 420%, against management's 400% target. Holding company liquidity was $1.0 billion net of prefunding, up about $350 million since year-end 2025.
- Capital returns have restarted. Lincoln repurchased $50 million of common stock in the third quarter and retired $437 million of preferred stock through tender offers (8-K, 5 November 2026). The board's 10 August 2026 release said repurchases would resume in the third quarter under a $1.5 billion authorization.
- An annual charge explains part of the miss. The annual assumption review cost $0.48 per diluted share of adjusted operating income (8-K, 5 November 2026), against a $0.24 shortfall to consensus.
- Life and retirement earnings grew. Life Insurance operating income excluding the review was $130 million, up $76 million from a year earlier. Retirement Plan Services earned $55 million, up about 20%, helped by a one-time item (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Book value excluding unrealized marks rose. Book value per share excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) was $84.05 at 30 September 2026, against $69.66 a year earlier (8-K). The 11 November 2026 close of $42.56 sits well below that figure.
- Brokers stay constructive after the report. A 12 November 2026 headline reports Wells Fargo kept its Overweight rating on Lincoln and lowered its price target to $53.
Bear case
- Group Protection fell short. Operating income excluding the review was $77 million, down $33 million from a year earlier, with a 5.5% margin (3.3% as reported), per the 8-K of 5 November 2026.
- Alternatives flattered the quarter. After-tax alternative investment income was $139 million, against $80 million a year earlier, about $55 million above Lincoln's 10% return target (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Outflows widened. Annuity net outflows were about $2.7 billion, against $1.1 billion a year earlier, and Retirement Plan Services lost $1.9 billion (8-K, 5 November 2026). MarketBeat reported about $3 billion of further retirement outflows projected for the fourth quarter.
- Book value including marks fell. Book value per share including AOCI was $46.17 at 30 September 2026, down from $53.68 at 30 June 2026. Net unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities were $12.4 billion before tax, up from $7.9 billion a year earlier, mainly on higher Treasury rates (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Headline profit overstates the quarter. Net income available to common shareholders was $1,332 million, against $339 million of adjusted operating income, driven by a $1,317 million pre-tax gain on net annuity product features (8-K, 5 November 2026).
- Executives sold after the report. SEC Form 4 filings show three open-market sales: 17,500 shares at $40.24 by Sean Woodroffe and 52,434 shares at $39.26 by James Waltman Reid on 6 November 2026, and 17,980 shares at $42.50 by Craig Beazer on 9 November 2026. Three sales is too small a sample to draw a conclusion.
- A litigation figure is back in the news. A 11 November 2026 headline reports a proposed $147.5 million universal life settlement. Lincoln's FY2025 10-K shows the same $147.5 million pre-tax amount already accrued at 31 December 2025, with plaintiffs in related cases appealing the final approval to the Second Circuit.
Price setup
The shares closed at $42.56 on 11 November 2026, above the 50-day average of $41.28 and the 200-day average of $38.29 (adjusted closes). The three-month change is −5.0%. The close is 10.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $47.66 set on 5 August 2026, and well above the 52-week closing low of $32.59 on 12 March 2026.
The shares fell from $41.60 on 4 November 2026 to $39.16 on 5 November 2026, the day of the earnings reaction, then closed at $40.05 on 6 November 2026 and $42.98 on 9 November 2026. They have held between $42.56 and $42.98 on the two sessions since.
The 50-day average and the 5 November 2026 close of $39.16 are the nearest levels under the price. The 5 August 2026 high is the level over it that the shares have not retested since the August decline.
Catalysts ahead
- ~5 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results; date not yet confirmed by Lincoln. Should show the first risk-based capital figure after the October Talcott closing, the size of repurchases, and whether Group Protection margins recover.
What would change the view
A daily close above $46.48, which would put the shares back near the 5 August 2026 high and show them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings above the roughly flat outlook with Group Protection margin inside 8% to 9% would also show it.
What it trades with
Lincoln trades as a life insurer sensitive to interest rates and equity markets. MarketBeat listed a beta of 1.16 on 5 November 2026. Annuity average account balances of $181 billion and retirement account balances of $128 billion at the third quarter tie fee income to markets (8-K, 5 November 2026).
Treasury yields move the capital picture directly: the 8-K attributes the wider $12.4 billion unrealized loss mainly to higher rates. Alternative investment returns add a separate swing factor, as the $139 million third-quarter figure shows.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter adjusted operating income available to common shareholders was $339 million, or $1.72 per diluted share, including a $0.48 per share unfavorable annual assumption review; a year earlier it was $397 million, or $2.04. Lincoln Form 8-K earnings release · as of
- Adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share missed the $1.96 consensus estimate, while revenue of $5.481 billion beat the $4.955 billion estimate. Benzinga earnings headline · as of
- Lincoln's estimated risk-based capital ratio was above 420% and holding company liquidity was $1.0 billion net of prefunding, up about $350 million since year-end 2025. Lincoln Form 8-K earnings release · as of
- Lincoln repurchased $50 million of common stock in the third quarter and retired $437 million of preferred stock through tender offers. Lincoln Form 8-K earnings release · as of
- Group Protection operating income excluding the review was $77 million, down $33 million year over year, with a 5.5% margin; reported operating income was $46 million with a 3.3% margin. Lincoln Form 8-K earnings release · as of
- Annuity net outflows were about $2.7 billion in the third quarter, against $1.1 billion a year earlier; Retirement Plan Services net outflows were $1.9 billion. Lincoln Form 8-K earnings release · as of
- Management expects fourth-quarter earnings roughly flat with the third quarter excluding the review, and a full-year Group Protection margin at or modestly below the low end of its 8% to 9% range. MarketBeat earnings summary · as of
- Three executives made open-market sales of 17,500, 52,434 and 17,980 shares at $40.24, $39.26 and $42.50 on 6 November 2026 and 9 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Lincoln National (NYSE:LNC) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.24 EPS · marketbeat.com ·
- Lincoln National Corporations Board of Directors Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend Announces Plans to Resume Share Repurchases in the Third Quarter of 2026 · secure.businesswire.com ·
- LINCOLN NATIONAL CORP - Form 10-K - FY2025 · sec.gov
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