MNTN · MNTN
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $5.73
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.0% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $5.73, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 59.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $5.73, which would show the shares recovering and leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $78 million top of the guide would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 80.3
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +14.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 78.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 10.9
- Price to earnings (×)
- 7.0
All filed numbers
What MNTN reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 80.3 | +14.6 | 78.8 | 10.9 |
| first filed | 82.5 | +20.6 | 80.3 | 8.6 |
| first filed | 73.7 | +14.2 | 81.5 | 13.0 |
| first filed | 87.1 | +24.8 | 82.1 | 23.6 |
| first filed | 70.0 | +22.6 | 78.9 | 10.8 |
| first filed | 68.5 | +24.9 | 76.8 | 5.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 11.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 57.6 | 7.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −0.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 73.1 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 252 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −59.7% on a year | 2.2 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 54.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 356 |
| Market value ($M) | 404 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 7.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.7 days of average trading to cover, −10.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $3.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $10.3M |
The thesis
MNTN, Inc., which sells software for running measurable ads on streaming television, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A sales-force overhaul hurt new-customer wins, third-quarter revenue missed the company's own guide, and full-year revenue guidance was cut to $311–314 million from $347–357 million on 4 November 2026. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected in early 2027, settles whether revenue lands inside the new $75–78 million guide.
The company is still profitable and held $252.3 million of cash with no debt at 30 September 2026, according to its Form 10-Q filed 10 November 2026. The open question is how long sales execution takes to recover under new chief executive officer Tony Weisman, not solvency. The shares closed at $4.99 on 12 November 2026, 60.1% lower than three months earlier.
The 10-Q shows a second executive exit. Chief operating officer Christopher Innes ceased serving in that role, with employment ending 1 December 2026. Former chief executive Mark Douglas's employment ends 3 December 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on MNTN, Inc.
The bull case on MNTN, Inc. (MNTN), in brief: profit survived the miss. The bear case: guidance was cut hard.
Bull case
- Profit survived the miss. Third-quarter net income was $7.669 million against $6.4 million a year earlier, per the 10-Q filed 10 November 2026. Revenue of $80.251 million was up from $70.0 million in the third quarter of 2025.
- Cash is building. Cash and equivalents were $252.3 million at 30 September 2026, up from $210.2 million at 31 December 2025, per the same 10-Q.
- The buyback is unused. The 10-Q shows no repurchases in the first nine months of 2026 and $100.0 million still available under the program that runs through 5 August 2027. The program carries no minimum purchase.
- Customer retention held. A Finviz report on the 4 November 2026 call says net expansion stayed above 115% for a fourth straight quarter and win rates were unchanged. Active customers over the trailing twelve months were 4,373, up 32% from a year earlier.
- Management reversed the cause. The same report says MNTN reversed the sales compensation plan and hired 16 new sellers. The chief financial officer called the problems "unforeseen execution problems" in the go-to-market organization on 4 November 2026.
- Some targets sit above the price. Susquehanna lowered its target to $12 on 5 November 2026 and Freedom Broker lowered its target to $9 on 7 November 2026, both keeping positive ratings, per Benzinga.
Bear case
- Guidance was cut hard. Full-year revenue guidance fell to $311–314 million from $347–357 million, and full-year adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance fell to $66–68 million from $96–101 million, per the 4 November 2026 results.
- The fourth quarter shrinks from a year earlier. The $75–78 million revenue guide compares with $87.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the $8–10 million adjusted EBITDA guide with $28.1 million, per the Finviz report. Benzinga cited a $108.405 million analyst revenue estimate before the cut.
- Sales-force attrition drove the miss. Finviz reports roughly 40% attrition among experienced quota-carrying sellers after a compensation overhaul implemented in the third quarter. MNTN added 148 active customers from the previous quarter, against 351 in the quarter before.
- Leadership turned over. Weisman, a director, replaced Douglas effective 2 November 2026, and the 10-Q reports the chief operating officer's exit. Finviz reports the former chief revenue officer also left.
- Analysts downgraded. On 5 November 2026 Citigroup moved to Neutral with a $7 target, Evercore moved to In-Line with a $7 target per MarketBeat, and Raymond James and Citizens each moved to Market Perform.
- A large holder sold at higher prices. SEC Form 4 filings show Baroda Ventures, a 10% owner, sold 275,115 shares at $12.75 on 18 August 2026 and 60,440 shares at an average $12.55 on 13 August to 14 August 2026. The Form 4 filings since then show only director share awards, including 2,046 shares at $10.08 on 5 October 2026.
- Legal overhang. Alpha Modus Holdings said on 25 August 2026 that a Texas federal court denied MNTN's motion to dismiss its patent suit. A 8 November 2026 news report said a securities investigation of MNTN followed the third-quarter miss.
Price setup
The shares closed at $4.99 on 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low was $4.70 on 5 November 2026, the session after the results. The 52-week intraday high was $14.34 on 17 November 2025, and the last close is 65.2% below it.
After the 5 November 2026 low, the shares closed at $5.33 on 6 November 2026, then $5.19 on 9 November 2026, $4.90 on 10 November 2026, $4.98 on 11 November 2026 and $4.99 on 12 November 2026. The shares sit below both the 50-day average of $9.92 and the 200-day average of $9.82, as of 12 November 2026.
The price already reflects a reset to a lower revenue base: three months earlier, on 14 August 2026, the shares closed at $12.52. The market is pricing the fourth-quarter guide, not the earlier $347–357 million full-year range.
Catalysts ahead
- 3 December 2026: Former chief executive Mark Douglas's employment ends, per the 10-Q. Completes the leadership turnover; the new management team's own forecast is untested until the next report.
- ~February to March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Settles whether revenue lands inside the $75–78 million guide and whether the $311–314 million full-year range holds under the new chief executive.
What would change the view
A daily close above $5.73, which would show the shares recovering and leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue above the $78 million top of the guide would also show it.
What it trades with
MNTN trades with connected-television and digital-advertising peers, but the drop was company-specific. Benzinga reported on 5 November 2026 that AppLovin, another advertising-technology stock, traded more than 16% higher premarket while MNTN's chief financial officer blamed the company's own sales execution. The shares also move with small-cap growth stocks and with advertiser budgets, which a macro slowdown would reduce.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter revenue was $80.251 million against $86–89 million guidance and an $87.657 million analyst estimate; net income was $7.669 million against $6.4 million a year earlier. Benzinga 4 November 2026; Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was cut to $311–314 million from $347–357 million; fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $75–78 million, against $87.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. Benzinga 4 November 2026; Finviz report on the 4 November 2026 results · as of
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was cut to $66–68 million from $96–101 million; fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance is $8–10 million against $28.1 million a year earlier. Finsee Q3 2026 earnings summary; Finviz report on the 4 November 2026 results · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $252.3 million at 30 September 2026 with no debt; no share repurchases were made in the first nine months of 2026 and $100.0 million remains under the program through 5 August 2027. Form 10-Q filed 10 November 2026 · as of
- Roughly 40% of experienced quota-carrying sellers left after a compensation overhaul; MNTN added 148 active customers from the previous quarter against 351 the quarter before; trailing-twelve-month active customers were 4,373, up 32%. Finviz report on the 4 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- Director Tony Weisman became president and chief executive effective 2 November 2026, succeeding Mark Douglas; chief operating officer Christopher Innes ceased serving in that role, with employment ending 1 December 2026. Form 10-Q filed 10 November 2026 · as of
- Citigroup downgraded MNTN to Neutral with a $7 target; Evercore cut it to In-Line with a $7 target; Raymond James and Citizens each moved to Market Perform. Benzinga 5 November 2026; MarketBeat 5 November 2026 · as of
- Baroda Ventures LLC, a 10% owner, sold 275,115 shares at $12.75 on 18 August 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 20 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- MNTN, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Finviz
- MNTN (MNTN) Q3 2026 earnings review · finsee.ai
- Revenue Misses Expectations in Q3 2026, CEO Replaced the Same Day · 247wallst.com ·
- MarketBeat ·
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