QNST · QuinStreet
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $17.00
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Medium. Results, 4 November 2026: Fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $416.65M and adjusted EBITDA of $42.7M beat guidance of $370-380M and $38-40M, and fiscal 2027 guidance was raised to $1.5-1.6B revenue and $155-165M adjusted EBITDA.
In the portfolio Since : −1.3% from the average price paid for its shares, 0.9 percentage points behind the S&P 500 from the minute it was bought. See the portfolio.
Why it was bought
Bought 12 November 2026 on results. The fact behind it, dated 4 November 2026: Fiscal Q1 2027 results: revenue rose 46% to $416.7 million against a $370–380 million guide, adjusted EBITDA rose 108% to $42.7 million, and fiscal 2027 guidance was raised to $1.5–1.6 billion of revenue and $155–165 million of adjusted EBITDA.
Price against the kill line
11.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $17.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 5.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $17.00, under the $18.65 post-report low close of 10 November 2026, which would erase the post-earnings gain. December-quarter revenue below $360 million or adjusted EBITDA below $32 million, or fiscal 2027 guidance cut below $1.5 billion revenue or $155 million adjusted EBITDA, would also break the case.
The portfolio's case
QuinStreet's fiscal Q1 2027 revenue rose 46% to $416.7 million against a $370–380 million guide; adjusted EBITDA rose 108% to $42.7 million and auto-insurance revenue growth quickened for a fourth quarter, to 42%. The raised fiscal 2027 guide of $1.5–1.6 billion implies second-half growth near 6%. At about 7x EV to guided fiscal 2027 EBITDA (EV about $1.15 billion at the 11 November 2026 close), the price assumes carrier spending has peaked.
The portfolio sells if one of these comes true
- Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue below the $360 million low end of guidance or adjusted EBITDA below $32 million (fiscal Q1: $416.7 million and $42.7 million), in the report expected around 5 February 2027.
- Fiscal 2027 guidance cut below $1.5 billion of revenue or $155 million of adjusted EBITDA (current: $1.5–1.6 billion and $155–165 million).
- Auto-insurance revenue growth below 20% year over year (fiscal Q1: +42%), or management reports carrier budget cuts.
It can also sell when that day's research finds the stock fully priced, for a clearly better use of the money, to limit risk in the portfolio, on the weekly review's plan, when a cash takeover pays the shares out or at the end set for a shorter trade when it was bought. A close through the kill line (on a weekly line, a weekly close) means the note's call is wrong: the note is re-read, and the portfolio reads the new note at its next decision. The price alone never sells.
Catalyst
The business · as of
QuinStreet runs online marketplaces that match consumers searching for auto insurance, home services and financial products with insurers, contractors and lenders, which pay it per lead, click or call. Revenue was $416.65 million in the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (10-Q filed 6 November 2026).
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 4 November 2026 QuinStreet reported September-quarter revenue up 45.8% from a year earlier and raised its fiscal 2027 outlook to $1.5–1.6 billion in revenue and $155–165 million in adjusted EBITDA.
- What follows for the company
- The operating margin widened to 5.6% in the September quarter from 1.7% a year earlier, and four-quarter free cash flow reached $133 million, leaving $142 million of cash against $70 million of debt at 30 September 2026.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Carriers are buying more leads, which favours rival lead sellers EverQuote (EVER) and MediaAlpha (MAX) as well; LendingTree (TREE) competes with the Financial Services marketplace.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 6 November 2026) the shares trade at 11.6 times earnings, 0.7 times sales and 18.8 times EBIT, with a 12.2% free-cash-flow yield; that holds even if growth slows, provided the operating margin stays near the 5.6% of the September quarter and four-quarter net income stays near $94 million.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 417
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +45.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 12.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 133
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 71.5
- Price to earnings (×)
- 11.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.7
All filed numbers
What QuinStreet reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 417 | +45.8 | 12.8 | 5.6 |
| first filed | 374 | +42.7 | 13.3 | 5.1 |
| first filed | 346 | +28.3 | 11.9 | 3.0 |
| first filed | 288 | +1.9 | 9.6 | 0.4 |
| first filed | 286 | +2.4 | 9.4 | 1.7 |
| first filed | 262 | +32.1 | 10.6 | 1.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 21.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 93.7 | 17.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 135 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 133 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 142 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 70.0 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 71.5 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 1.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 208 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 344 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,087 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,016 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 18.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 11.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 12.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.4 days of average trading to cover, −6.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $239K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $17.4M |
Linked companies · as of
The thesis
QuinStreet's shares are more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company beat its own guidance and raised its fiscal 2027 outlook on 4 November 2026, and the shares trade at 11.6 times earnings at the 13 November 2026 close. The December-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, shows whether insurance-carrier advertising spending holds through the seasonal dip the company has already guided.
The rating is Medium because reported numbers support the case, while the next test is almost three months away. The 10-Q filed on 6 November 2026 shows revenue of $416.65 million for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, against $285.85 million a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $42.7 million, up 108% and above the company's $38–40 million range (Earnings Whispers, 4 November 2026). Full-year guidance rose to $1.5–1.6 billion in revenue and $155–165 million in adjusted EBITDA, from $1.45–1.55 billion and $150–160 million (Finviz, 5 November 2026).
The price reflects doubt that the September-quarter pace lasts. The shares closed at $18.98 on 13 November 2026, a 5.9% fall over three months, after the company guided the December quarter to $360–380 million in revenue and $32–33 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Bullish and bearish views on QuinStreet, Inc.
The bull case on QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST), in brief: results cleared the company's own range. The bear case: the second quarter steps down.
Bull case
- Results cleared the company's own range. Revenue of $416.65 million and adjusted EBITDA of $42.7 million, reported 4 November 2026, beat guidance; adjusted earnings per share were $0.50 against a $0.39 FactSet consensus (company results, 4 November 2026).
- Auto insurance keeps accelerating. Insurance revenue grew 42% from a year earlier in the September quarter, after 27% and 37% in the two prior quarters, per Earnings Whispers on 4 November 2026.
- Home Services is scaling. Revenue in the segment rose 86% to $145.7 million in the September quarter, helped by the HomeBuddy integration, and Financial Services grew 31% (Earnings Whispers, 4 November 2026).
- Margins are widening. The 10-Q filed 6 November 2026 shows a 12.8% gross margin and a 5.6% operating margin for the September quarter, against 9.4% and 1.7% a year earlier.
- Cash generation is strong for the price. Filed figures show $133 million of free cash flow over the four quarters to 30 September 2026, a 12.2% free-cash-flow yield at the 13 November 2026 close, with $142 million of cash against $70 million of debt.
- The December-quarter guide leaves room. The $360–380 million revenue range excludes any year-end auto-insurance budget flush (Finviz, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- The second quarter steps down. Guidance of $32–33 million in adjusted EBITDA for the December quarter sits well below the $42.7 million just reported. Earnings Whispers judged the full-year raise to be largely the first-quarter beat carried forward (4 November 2026).
- Growth is concentrated in auto insurance. About eight carriers spend more than $1 million a month (Earnings Whispers, 4 November 2026), so a pullback by a few large insurers would hit revenue directly.
- Acquisitions blur organic growth. Home Services' 86% growth in the September quarter includes HomeBuddy, and the company's reported segment figures do not separate the acquired revenue.
- Cash conversion trailed earnings last quarter. Receivables rose $27 million in the September quarter, more than the $23.3 million of operating cash flow (Finviz, 5 November 2026); filed receivables stood at $207 million on 30 September 2026.
- Insiders have not bought. SEC Form 4 filings dated 12 November 2026 show 13,078 of Chief Financial Officer Gregory Wong's shares and 42,295 of Chief Executive Officer Douglas Valenti's shares withheld for tax at $18.65 on 10 November 2026, plus a gift of 81,660 shares by Valenti. None is an open-market purchase.
Price setup
After the report the shares closed at $20.66 on 6 November 2026, then $19.04 on 9 November 2026, the day management spoke at the BMO Financials Conference, and $18.65 on 10 November 2026, the lowest close since the results. They closed at $19.44 on 11 November 2026, $19.12 on 12 November 2026 and $18.98 on 13 November 2026.
The last close sits above the 50-day moving average of $16.89 and the 200-day moving average of $14.71, both as of 13 November 2026. It is 14.8% below the $22.29 intraday 52-week high of 10 August 2026 and far above the $10.56 52-week closing low of 12 February 2026. The three-month change is −5.9%, from a $20.18 close on 17 August 2026.
The levels the case turns on are the $18.65 close of 10 November 2026, the post-report low, and the $22.29 high of 10 August 2026, where a close above would mark a new 52-week high. A slide to the 50-day average would show the market discounting the raised guidance.
Catalysts ahead
- 31 December 2026: December quarter (fiscal second quarter of 2027) ends. Year-end auto-insurance budget decisions decide whether revenue clears the $360–380 million guide, which excludes any December budget flush.
- ~5 February 2027 (est.): Fiscal second-quarter 2027 results. Tests the raised $1.5–1.6 billion revenue and $155–165 million adjusted EBITDA outlook and shows whether insurance growth holds after the 42% September-quarter rate.
What would change the view
A daily close below $17.00, under the $18.65 post-report low close of 10 November 2026, which would erase the post-earnings gain. December-quarter revenue below $360 million or adjusted EBITDA below $32 million, or fiscal 2027 guidance cut below $1.5 billion revenue or $155 million adjusted EBITDA, would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Carrier advertising budgets weaken after the strong September quarter and the December quarter falls short of the seasonal guide. Confirmed by: December-quarter revenue below $360 million or adjusted EBITDA below $32 million in the report expected around 5 February 2027, or fiscal 2027 guidance cut below $1.5 billion revenue or $155 million adjusted EBITDA.
- Growth is concentrated in auto insurance, where about eight carriers spend more than $1 million a month. Confirmed by: auto-insurance revenue growth below 20% from a year earlier, against 42% in the September quarter, or management reporting carrier budget cuts.
- Insider selling resumes after the report. Confirmed by: new SEC Form 4 filings showing open-market or Rule 10b5-1 plan sales by executives or directors in November or December 2026, beyond tax withholding.
- Cash conversion lags earnings. Confirmed by: receivables growing faster than revenue again in the December quarter, with quarterly free cash flow below the $20.3 million reported for the September quarter.
- Home Services growth fades as the HomeBuddy acquisition laps. Confirmed by: home Services revenue growth falling well below the 86% reported for the September quarter in the February 2027 report.
What it trades with
QuinStreet's results track insurance-carrier advertising budgets, so auto insurers' profitability and marketing spend are the closest drivers. EverQuote (EVER) and MediaAlpha (MAX) sell insurance leads to the same carriers and tend to move on the same budget news. Home Services ties the shares to home-improvement lead demand, and Financial Services to consumer-credit marketing, a link shared with LendingTree (TREE).
Caveats
- QuinStreet's fiscal year ends 30 June, so the quarter ending 31 December 2026 is its fiscal second quarter of 2027. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 · as of
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Revenue for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 was $416.65 million, against $285.85 million in the same quarter a year earlier. QuinStreet 10-Q filed 6 November 2026 · as of
- Adjusted EBITDA for the September quarter was $42.7 million, up 108% and above company guidance of $38–40 million; adjusted earnings per share were $0.50 against a $0.39 FactSet consensus. Earnings Whispers, QuinStreet fiscal first-quarter 2027 review · as of
- Fiscal 2027 guidance was raised to revenue of $1.5–1.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $155–165 million, from $1.45–1.55 billion and $150–160 million. Finviz coverage of fiscal first-quarter 2027 results, 5 November 2026 · as of
- December-quarter guidance is $360–380 million in revenue and $32–33 million in adjusted EBITDA, excluding any year-end auto-insurance budget flush. Finviz coverage of fiscal first-quarter 2027 results, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Insurance revenue grew 42% from a year earlier after 27% and 37% in the two prior quarters; Home Services rose 86% to $145.7 million; Financial Services grew 31%. Earnings Whispers, QuinStreet fiscal first-quarter 2027 review · as of
- Operating margin was 5.6% and gross margin 12.8% in the September quarter, against 1.7% and 9.4% a year earlier. QuinStreet 10-Q filed 6 November 2026 · as of
- Free cash flow was $133 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026; cash and short-term investments were $142 million against $70 million of long-term debt. QuinStreet 10-Q filed 6 November 2026 · as of
- CFO Gregory Wong had 13,078 shares and CEO Douglas Valenti 42,295 shares withheld for tax at $18.65 on 10 November 2026; Valenti also reported a gift of 81,660 shares. SEC Form 4 filings dated 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- QuinStreet crushes Q1 expectations as auto insurance accelerates again but a measured raise and seasonal Q2 guide temper the upside · finviz.com ·
- QNST QuinStreet Inc · earningswhispers.com
- QuinStreet to Participate at BMO Financials Conference · investor.quinstreet.com
Related · shared themes
U
Unity Software
Unity Software's advertising turnaround and reported takeover interest make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500…
ZETA
Zeta Global Holdings
Zeta Global's shares hold a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the company beat its third-quarter guide and raised 2026 revenue guidance to…
APP
AppLovin
AppLovin's third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 55% to $2.185 billion and put growth back on track. The fourth-quarter report, expected around…
EVC
Entravision Communication
Entravision's ad-technology unit grew 133% in the third quarter, beating its own guide, and the shares have held the gain; the…