MNPR · Monopar Therapeutics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $84.40
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $84.40, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 38.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $84.40, which is over the 50-day average of closes and would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. An FDA decision to accept the ALXN1840 application for review would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 12 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 105
All filed numbers
What Monopar Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) |
|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −20.6 | −6.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) | Not reported |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 105 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 105 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 127 |
| Market value ($M) | 488 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 383 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 16.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.1 days of average trading to cover, +3.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $4.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $105K | $4.9M |
The thesis
Monopar Therapeutics' Wilson disease drug, ALXN1840, still has an open path to US approval, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Completion of the rolling New Drug Application (NDA) and the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) decision to accept it for review settle the call. On 12 November 2026 the company said it is on track to finish the submission "within the next several weeks".
The shares closed at $72.68 on 12 November 2026, down 35.7% over three months and 41.8% below the intraday 52-week high of $124.82 set on 6 August 2026. They sit below both the 50-day average of $83.52 and the 200-day average of $77.24, both measured on adjusted closes.
The third-quarter report on 12 November 2026 did not complete the filing. It did extend funding: cash, cash equivalents and investments were $129.4 million at 30 September 2026, and the company guides to funding through at least 31 March 2028. The net loss was $6.2 million, or $0.72 per share, against a per-share estimate of $0.80 reported by news outlets on 12 November 2026. The shares closed at $71.73 on 11 November 2026 and $72.68 on 12 November 2026.
The price already reflects doubt about the filing: the shares fell from a $113.04 close on 14 August 2026 to $72.68 on 12 November 2026 while the pivotal result rests on a biomarker endpoint.
Bullish and bearish views on Monopar Therapeutics Inc.
The bull case on Monopar Therapeutics Inc. (MNPR), in brief: the regulatory process is under way. The bear case: the decline has not reversed.
Bull case
- The regulatory process is under way. Monopar announced on 22 July 2026 that the FDA authorized a rolling NDA and that the first completed sections were submitted. On 12 November 2026 the company said completion is expected within several weeks, which starts the FDA's 60-day filing-decision clock.
- Funding now runs longer. The third-quarter 10-Q reports $129.4 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments at 30 September 2026. Monopar guides to funding through at least 31 March 2028 (company release, 12 November 2026).
- The drug holds a rare pediatric designation. The FDA granted Rare Pediatric Disease Designation to ALXN1840 on 30 June 2026. It keeps open a priority review voucher if approval comes while the FDA's voucher authority runs, currently through 30 September 2029.
- Safety and clinical analyses keep arriving. A poster at the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases meeting on 5 November 2026 reported neutral molybdenum balance and no molybdenum toxicity over six years of treatment. Baseline data from the Phase 3 FoCus study were presented on 8 November 2026.
- Medical affairs is being built ahead of a launch. Monopar appointed Jeffrey D. Kent, M.D., Executive Vice President, Head of Medical Affairs, on 19 August 2026.
Bear case
- The decline has not reversed. The close was $113.04 on 14 August 2026 and $72.68 on 12 November 2026. The shares closed at $67.22 on 5 November 2026 and reached $73.75 on 9 November 2026, still under the 200-day average.
- Submission timing keeps moving. NeurologyLive reported on 23 July 2026 that company guidance had shifted from early 2026 to mid-2026 before the rolling submission began on 22 July 2026. The company said "within the next several weeks" on 12 November 2026, and the filing is still not complete.
- Insiders sold into the fall. Director Raymond Anderson sold 3,142 shares at an average $68.35 on 2 November 2026. Director Kim Tsuchimoto sold 4,090 shares at an average $70.92 between 2 November 2026 and 4 November 2026. Director Christopher Starr sold 8,400 shares at an average $78.50 on 1 October 2026. CEO Chandler Robinson sold 29,056 shares at an average $88.00 on 24 September 2026. All four were under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4 filings).
- The pivotal result rests on a biomarker. The Phase 3 FoCus study met its primary endpoint on copper mobilization over 48 weeks, not on a clinical outcome. The company's 10-Q warns the FDA may decline to accept or approve the application.
- Spending is rising. The third-quarter net loss was $6.2 million against $3.4 million a year earlier. Research and development expense was about $4.4 million against $2.6 million (company release, 12 November 2026).
Price setup
The last close was $72.68 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 200-day average of $77.24 and the 50-day average of $83.52, both as of that close. The 50-day average is above the 200-day, a gap left by the August highs that narrows as lower recent closes enter the window.
The lowest recent close in the closes table is $67.22 on 5 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $50.12 on 29 April 2026, and the intraday 52-week high is $124.82 on 6 August 2026. A close above the 200-day average of $77.24 would put the shares back over their longer-term trend. The 50-day average of $83.52 is the next level above it.
Catalysts ahead
- Undated (guided: several weeks): Completion of the rolling NDA submission for ALXN1840, guided on 12 November 2026 to within several weeks. Completion starts the FDA's 60-day filing-decision clock and shows whether the submission timeline has stopped slipping.
- Undated (about 60 days later): FDA decision to accept or refuse to file the ALXN1840 application, due about 60 days after NDA completion. Acceptance would address the main regulatory doubt over a biomarker-based pivotal endpoint; a refusal would confirm it.
What would change the view
A daily close above $84.40, which is over the 50-day average of closes and would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. An FDA decision to accept the ALXN1840 application for review would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Monopar trades on its own regulatory timeline and not with a sector group. Company news moves it more than small-cap biotech risk appetite does. The third-quarter report on 12 November 2026 left the close close to where it was a day earlier ($71.73 on 11 November 2026, $72.68 on 12 November 2026), so the next event likely to reprice the shares is the NDA completion release or the FDA's filing decision.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Monopar said it is on track to complete the ALXN1840 NDA submission within the next several weeks; the rolling submission began 22 July 2026. Monopar third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and investments were $129.4 million at 30 September 2026, with funding guided through at least 31 March 2028. Monopar third-quarter 2026 results release and 10-Q · as of
- Third-quarter net loss was $6.2 million, or $0.72 per share, against $3.4 million, or $0.48 per share, a year earlier; research and development expense was about $4.4 million against $2.6 million. Monopar third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Monopar announced FDA authorization for a rolling ALXN1840 NDA submission and submission of the first completed sections. Monopar press release 22 July 2026 · as of
- Director Raymond Anderson sold 3,142 shares at an average $68.35 on 2 November 2026; director Kim Tsuchimoto sold 4,090 shares at an average $70.92 from 2 November to 4 November 2026; both under Rule 10b5-1 plans. SEC Form 4 filings 4 November 2026 · as of
- CEO Chandler Robinson sold 29,056 shares at an average $88.00 on 24 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 28 September 2026 · as of
- An American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases poster on 5 November 2026 reported neutral molybdenum balance and no molybdenum toxicity over six years of treatment; baseline Phase 3 FoCus data were presented on 8 November 2026. Monopar third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
Sources
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