MMED · MiniMed Group
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $23.84
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
24.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $23.84, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 7.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $23.84, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (3 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fiscal second-quarter organic growth above the July quarter's 15.8% would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 8 September 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 843
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +16.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 55.2
- Operating margin (%)
- 0.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 207
All filed numbers
What MiniMed Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 843 | +16.6 | 55.2 | 0.6 |
| first filed | 837 | +15.6 | 57.3 | −11.1 |
| first filed | 790 | +15.0 | 45.8 | −12.7 |
| first filed | 723 | — | 56.6 | −1.8 |
| first filed | 724 | — | 55.9 | −20.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 4.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −309 | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 25 July 2025 | +11.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 207 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 207 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 19.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 23 January 2026, filed 17 April 2026 | 23.0 |
| Receivables ($M) | 180 |
| Inventory ($M) | 356 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,620 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,062 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 4,855 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 7.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.0 days of average trading to cover, +13.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
MiniMed Group's diabetes-device sales are growing quickly, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. They closed at $17.88 on 12 November 2026, below the $20.00 IPO price, and the fiscal second-quarter report on 24 November 2026 settles whether growth holds near the July quarter's pace.
MiniMed reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 sales of $843 million, with organic growth of 15.8%, for the quarter ended 31 July 2026. It guided fiscal 2027 organic growth to approximately 10.5% and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) margin to approximately 16% (company release, 1 September 2026).
The market has priced in a slowdown: the shares closed at $17.88 on 12 November 2026, under the 50-day average of $19.72, and are down 11.3% over three months. The company set the report date on 4 November 2026 and named Dr. David Segal chief medical officer on 3 November 2026. Neither item changes the revenue picture.
Bullish and bearish views on MiniMed Group, Inc.
The bull case on MiniMed Group, Inc. (MMED), in brief: growth accelerated into the guide. The bear case: the shares sit below the IPO price.
Bull case
- Growth accelerated into the guide. Organic growth was 15.8% in the quarter ended 31 July 2026, against 8.7% in the quarter reported 3 June 2026. Guidance of approximately 10.5% for the year sits well below that run rate (company releases, 3 June 2026 and 1 September 2026).
- Medtronic has fully exited. Medtronic announced on 14 October 2026 that it accepted 55,032,401 of its own shares for all 252,813,348 remaining MiniMed shares. It held 90.03% of 280.84 million outstanding shares before the offer and now holds none.
- International growth is strong. International organic growth was 16.9% in the quarter ended 31 July 2026 (company release, 1 September 2026), before any MiniMed Flex launch in Europe.
- Targets sit above the price. Mizuho kept Outperform and raised its target to $28 on 8 October 2026. Truist initiated at Buy with a $29 target on 24 September 2026.
Bear case
- The shares sit below the IPO price. The $17.88 close of 12 November 2026 is under the $20.00 IPO price of 6 March 2026 and under the 50-day average of $19.72.
- Exchange recipients hold a large block. The final ratio hit the 4.5939 cap (Medtronic announcement, 7 October 2026), and Medtronic's SEC Form 4 shows a disposition of 252,813,348 shares on 15 October 2026. Further selling by the Medtronic shareholders who received the shares would add supply.
- Neutral coverage is new. Jefferies initiated at Hold with a $22 target on 12 October 2026. Barclays initiated at Equal-Weight with a $22 target on 7 October 2026.
- Guidance sits below the latest quarter. Full-year organic growth of approximately 10.5% compares with 15.8% in the July quarter, and the guide includes 1.0–1.5 points from an extra fiscal week (company release, 1 September 2026). A second-quarter result that converges toward the guide would read as deceleration.
Price setup
The last completed close was $17.88 on 12 November 2026. The 50-day average is $19.72, so the shares trade under their recent average, and the three-month change is –11.3%. The $20.00 IPO price is the nearest round-number reference above.
Insider filings in the last month show no open-market sales. SEC Form 4 filings dated 16 October 2026 and 19 October 2026 report grants of shares to directors and officers on 15 October 2026. A Form 4 filed 30 October 2026 reports 449 shares withheld for tax by an executive at $18.93 on 28 October 2026.
A close back above $20.00 would return the shares to the IPO price. That would not by itself change the call.
Catalysts ahead
- 24 November 2026: MiniMed fiscal second-quarter 2027 results and webcast. First check on whether the 15.8% organic growth rate persists or converges toward the approximately 10.5% full-year guide.
- ~November 2026 (est.): MiniMed Flex commercial launch in Europe following CE Mark. International organic growth was 16.9% in the quarter ended 31 July 2026 without Flex in Europe; the launch is the route for that line to hold its rate.
What would change the view
A daily close above $23.84, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (3 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fiscal second-quarter organic growth above the July quarter's 15.8% would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
MiniMed trades as a diabetes-device company and competes with Abbott's Libre in continuous glucose monitoring, while Abbott's Instinct sensor is built into MiniMed Flex. Its share price has also been driven by the Medtronic separation, which sets it apart from other medical-device names. Moves in the broader medtech group matter less than the offer's aftermath and the 24 November 2026 report.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Fiscal first-quarter 2027 sales were $843 million with organic growth of 15.8% for the quarter ended 31 July 2026; fiscal 2027 guidance is approximately 10.5% organic growth and approximately 16% adjusted EBITDA margin. MiniMed Group fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings release · as of
- Medtronic accepted 55,032,401 Medtronic shares in exchange for all remaining 252,813,348 MiniMed shares in an oversubscribed offer. Medtronic exchange-offer results announcement · as of
- MiniMed will report fiscal second-quarter 2027 results on 24 November 2026 at about 3:45 a.m. Pacific time, with a webcast at 5:30 a.m. MiniMed company announcement (PR Newswire) · as of
- MiniMed appointed Dr. David Segal as Chief Medical Officer. MiniMed company news · as of
- Jefferies initiated coverage at Hold with a $22 price target. Jefferies initiation reported in company news · as of
- Mizuho maintained Outperform and raised its price target to $28. Mizuho note reported in company news · as of
- International organic growth was 16.9% for the quarter ended 31 July 2026. MiniMed Group fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings release · as of
Sources
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