CLDX · Celldex Therapeutics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $33.77
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
14.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $33.77, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 31.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $33.77, over both the 50-day and 200-day averages, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; a positive atopic dermatitis Phase 2 topline on its primary endpoint would also point that way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −366468.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −260
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 650
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 10216.0
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −11.5
All filed numbers
What Celldex Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | −97.0 | −366468.2 |
| first filed | 0.0 | −97.8 | −562900.0 |
| first filed | 0.1 | −89.7 | −72027.3 |
| first filed | 0.0 | −100.0 | — |
| first filed | 0.7 | −70.8 | −8747.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −309 | −75.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +18.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −252 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 7.8 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −260 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 650 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 650 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 1.8 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 650 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,265 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,614 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 10216.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −11.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 12.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.9 days of average trading to cover, −12.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $121K |
The thesis
Celldex Therapeutics has two positive Phase 3 trials of barzolvolimab in chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) and cash guided to fund operations through 2028, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The close was $30.15 on 11 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $32.41 and the 200-day average of $32.8. The atopic dermatitis Phase 2 topline, guided to late 2026, and any stock sale under the registration filed on 5 November 2026 decide whether that changes.
The 22 September 2026 readout answered the efficacy question and the third-quarter report on 5 November 2026 added no new clinical data. The three-month price change was −29.2% as of 11 November 2026. Analysts raised price targets after the report: Morgan Stanley (Overweight) to $61 and Canaccord Genuity (Buy) to $68, both on 9 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Celldex Therapeutics, Inc.
The bull case on Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (CLDX), in brief: both pivotal trials met their endpoints. The bear case: the shares fell after good news.
Bull case
- Both pivotal trials met their endpoints. Celldex reported on 22 September 2026 that both tested doses met the Week 12 primary and all key secondary endpoints in EMBARQ-CSU1 and EMBARQ-CSU2.
- Responses held through Week 24. Complete-response rates for the 150-mg regimen were 49.0% and 54.0% across the two trials, against 15.4% and 17.6% on placebo, per the same release.
- The filing plan is intact. The 5 November 2026 results release says Celldex anticipates a biologics license application (BLA) submission in 2027 and describes barzolvolimab as well tolerated through 24 weeks in the Phase 3 studies.
- Cash covers the plan. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $650.3 million at 30 September 2026, and management guided funding through 2028.
- Analysts raised targets after the report. Morgan Stanley moved to a $61 target and Canaccord Genuity to $68 on 9 November 2026, both keeping positive ratings.
Bear case
- The shares fell after good news. The 52-week intraday high was $45.14 on 12 August 2026, and the close of $30.15 on 11 November 2026 is 33.2% below it. The three-month change was −29.2%.
- A new registration raises dilution risk. Celldex announced on 5 November 2026 a mixed securities registration of undisclosed size, after about $323.9 million in net proceeds from an April 2026 public offering. No sale under the new filing has been announced.
- Cash is falling by about $65 million a quarter. Cash declined from $717.6 million at 30 June 2026 to $650.3 million at 30 September 2026, with $65.0 million of third-quarter operating cash use. Research and development expense rose to $67.4 million from $62.9 million a year earlier, and the third-quarter net loss was $75.6 million, or $0.96 per share.
- Safety detail is thin. The 22 September 2026 release gave no adverse-event table. Higher discontinuations or clinically significant toxicity in a fuller table would hurt the regulatory and commercial case.
- Efficacy has not carried into other indications. Celldex is discontinuing the prurigo nodularis Phase 2 study, saying mast cells may not be the key driver of that disease.
Price setup
The shares closed at $28.27 on 5 November 2026, the day of the third-quarter report, and rose to $31.24 on 9 November 2026. They then eased to $30.65 on 10 November 2026 and $30.15 on 11 November 2026. The 9 November 2026 close sits under both the 50-day and 200-day averages, which stand at $32.41 and $32.8 as of 11 November 2026.
The price reflects a view that the Phase 3 success is already known and that financing and the atopic dermatitis result are the open items: the shares are 33.2% under the August high even with cash guided through 2028. The registration filed on 5 November 2026 authorizes future sales but does not itself sell shares.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Atopic dermatitis Phase 2 topline for barzolvolimab, guided to late 2026; enrollment is complete. Tests whether mast-cell depletion works beyond urticaria, after the prurigo nodularis discontinuation.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Celldex's guided announcement of additional barzolvolimab indications by year-end 2026. Shows how wide the company intends to take the drug beyond chronic spontaneous urticaria.
- 2027 (timing not set): Planned BLA submission for barzolvolimab in chronic spontaneous urticaria. The filing converts the Phase 3 results into a path toward approval; a slip would weaken the case.
What would change the view
A daily close above $33.77, over both the 50-day and 200-day averages, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; a positive atopic dermatitis Phase 2 topline on its primary endpoint would also point that way.
What it trades with
Celldex trades on its own clinical news rather than on a sector driver. Mid-cap immunology and dermatology biotech peers react to the same financing conditions, which matters because of the 5 November 2026 registration filing. Developers of rival urticaria treatments are the closest read-across for the Phase 3 data.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Both EMBARQ-CSU Phase 3 trials met their Week 12 primary and all key secondary endpoints across both tested doses. Celldex Phase 3 topline release · as of
- Week 24 complete-response rates for the 150-mg regimen were 49.0% and 54.0% in EMBARQ-CSU1 and CSU2, versus 15.4% and 17.6% on placebo. Celldex Phase 3 topline release · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $650.3 million, down from $717.6 million at 30 June 2026; third-quarter operating cash use was $65.0 million. Management guided funding through 2028. Celldex Q3 2026 results release and 10-Q · as of
- Third-quarter net loss was $75.6 million, or $0.96 per share; research and development expense was $67.4 million versus $62.9 million a year earlier. Celldex Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Celldex anticipates a BLA submission in 2027; atopic dermatitis Phase 2 enrollment is complete with topline data expected in late 2026. Celldex Q3 2026 results release · as of
- The prurigo nodularis Phase 2 study is being discontinued; Celldex said mast cells may not be the key pathogenic driver in that disease. Celldex Q3 2026 results release · as of
- Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight and raised its price target to $61; Canaccord Genuity maintained Buy and raised its target to $68. Analyst rating headlines · as of
- The close was $30.15, 33.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $45.14 set on 12 August 2026; the three-month price change was −29.2%. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
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