Watchlist
CYRX · CryoPort, Inc.
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 18 September 2026; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Resolved Graded and closed 2026-08-21 at medium conviction — the published kill line did not fire. Coverage continued after the close; the read below is dated 2026-09-13 and is not part of the scored record.
Current thesis
Q2 (2026-08-06) split the read: revenue $49.0M beat $48.21M and FY26 guide affirmed at $192–196M with adjusted EBITDA crossing to +$0.4M, but commercial CGT growth halved to +9% YoY from +26%. The narrative leg is now the profitability crossover; the stock closed $15.12 on 2026-08-07, 8.8% under the $16.57 high, with no scheduled catalyst until ~November.
Kill line
A weekly close below $13 loses the 2026 breakout shelf and the 20-week EMA zone; secondary confirmation would be commercial CGT revenue failing to reaccelerate above +15% YoY at the ~November Q3 print, or any cut to the affirmed $192–196M FY2026 revenue band.
Pick status
Played out resolved published kill line did not fire How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for CYRX —
As of 13 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for CryoPort, Inc. (CYRX): Q2 (2026-08-06) split the read: revenue $49.0M beat $48.21M and FY26 guide affirmed at $192–196M with adjusted EBITDA crossing to +$0.4M, but commercial CGT growth halved to +9% YoY from +26%. The narrative leg is now the profitability crossover; the stock closed $15.12 on 2026-08-07, 8.8% under the $16.57 high, with no scheduled catalyst until ~November.
Kill line: A weekly close below $13 loses the 2026 breakout shelf and the 20-week EMA zone; secondary confirmation would be commercial CGT revenue failing to reaccelerate above +15% YoY at the ~November Q3 print, or any cut to the affirmed $192–196M FY2026 revenue band.
Next dated event on file: — catalyst in 15d.
Current Thesis
Cryoport's cold-chain profitability thesis requires another quarter of positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), alongside renewed commercial therapy growth, before a weekly close below $13. The 2026-08-06 results established the starting point: Q2 adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was $0.4 million, while commercial cell and gene therapy (CGT) revenue grew 9% year over year. Those results establish a crossover; the sample is too small to establish sustained profitability. Q2 results
The narrative is maturing — the September 11, 2026 adjusted close of $15.55 sits below the August 28 reference close of $16.09, while the next earnings date remains unconfirmed. This is an inference from price moderation after the August results, not a measured claim about investor flows. The latest supplied price series shows a 6.4% three-month increase but a 9.2% distance below its $17.13 annual high.
Bullish and bearish views on CryoPort, Inc.
The model's bull view on CryoPort, Inc. (CYRX), in brief: Services retain a stronger growth engine. The bear view: Commercial growth has already slowed. The August 6, 2026 results reported commercial CGT revenue of $9.4 million, growing 9% year over year, versus the 26% growth reported at the May 4 Q1 release. The stronger Services subcomponent does not resolve that aggregate slowdown. Q2… Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Services retain a stronger growth engine. The 2026-08-06 release reported Life Sciences Services revenue growth of 15% year over year and BioStorage/BioServices growth of 25%. Within commercial CGT, the Services portion grew 26%, qualifying the weaker 9% growth reported for commercial CGT overall. Company results
- Clinical activity supplies potential demand. Cryoport supported 779 clinical trials and 22 commercially approved therapies at June 30, 2026. These are measured customer-pipeline exposures; conversion into faster commercial revenue remains unproved and would fail the next test if Q3 commercial CGT growth stays at or below 15% year over year. Company results
Bear Case
- Commercial growth has already slowed. The August 6, 2026 results reported commercial CGT revenue of $9.4 million, growing 9% year over year, versus the 26% growth reported at the May 4 Q1 release. The stronger Services subcomponent does not resolve that aggregate slowdown. Q2 results
- Products margins moved backward. Q2 2026 Products gross margin was 42.2%, compared with 44.9% in Q2 2025, according to the August 6 release. That measured decline limits the evidence for broad operating improvement; another negative adjusted EBITDA quarter would break the repeat-profitability case. Filed results
Setup & Price Structure
The September 11, 2026 adjusted close of $15.55 remains above the August 7 post-results close of $15.12. The supplied 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was 29.1 on September 11, versus 63.0 in the August 28 snapshot. These observations describe weaker recent momentum; they do not establish a reversal. No current moving-average value is available to support an extension claim.
The $13 weekly-close threshold remains the published structural invalidation identified in the August 30 research. Its earlier association with a moving average is not independently established for September 11, so the threshold stands as a fixed research condition. The $15.12 post-results close is an intermediate reference, not a replacement thesis-break level.
Analyst coverage clusters around the August results: Benzinga lists Guggenheim's August 7, 2026 target increase to $16 and Needham's same-day increase to $19, following BTIG's July 24 increase to $25. That dates professional attention; it does not measure ownership concentration. Current retail participation and short-interest evidence are missing, so crowding cannot be established. Analyst actions
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
- 2026-09-30 — Q3 quarter end. This closes the measurement period for comparison with the 779 supported trials reported at June 30, 2026. Quarter end itself is not a financial disclosure.
- 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07 — Cell & Gene Meeting on the Mesa. Cryoport Systems lists participation in Phoenix on its September 13, 2026 event-calendar check. This supplies an industry-facing event, but the listing promises no financial update. Company events
- ~2026-11-05, est. Q3 results. The date remains an unconfirmed estimate from the August 30 coverage, rather than a company-announced appointment. This later event is the substantive test of repeat positive adjusted EBITDA and commercial CGT growth above 15% year over year. Investor calendar
What Would Change Our Mind
Loss of the retained structural threshold ends the price-supported case: a weekly close below $13 invalidates it. Independently, Q3 adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations below zero, commercial CGT growth at or below 15% year over year, or a reduction to the $192–196 million FY2026 revenue guidance affirmed on August 6 would defeat the specified operating case. Positive adjusted EBITDA, commercial growth above that threshold and intact guidance at Q3 would constitute the thesis playing out, provided the price invalidation has not occurred first.
Correlation Notes
This remains a single-name setup. Cryoport's exposure to 779 clinical trials at June 30, 2026 supports an economic link to therapy-development activity, but it does not establish a stock-price correlation with biotechnology funds or freight companies. No paired return series is available; a sector move cannot serve as evidence that Cryoport's profitability thesis has been confirmed. Company results
Notes
- Reported P/E on data feeds is an artifact — the company is operating-loss-making. Frame valuation on P/S against the affirmed FY2026 $192-196M revenue band.
- The 2025 CRYOPDP divestiture makes YoY EPS non-comparable: Q2 2025 EPS of +$2.13 included discontinued-operations gains against Q2 2026's -$0.20.
- Demand is downstream of cell & gene therapy developer funding, so biotech risk appetite drives the multiple more than any single company datapoint.
- Aggregators disagree on the low end of the target set ($15 on stockanalysis.com as of 2026-08-30 versus Jefferies' reported $13.50), so the range describes coverage better than the average does.
- Next scheduled company binary is the Q3 2026 print, expected early November; no confirmed company event sat on the IR calendar inside 30 days as of 2026-08-30.
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