CYRX · CryoPort
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $15.12
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
31.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $15.12, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are up 29.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $15.12, the 7 August 2026 close after the second-quarter report, which would erase the gain since that report; or negative fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA or full-year 2026 revenue under $197 million at the next report.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 50.2
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +13.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 47.5
- Operating margin (%)
- −17.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −18.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 206
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 4.2
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −1.9
All filed numbers
What CryoPort reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 50.2 | +13.5 | 47.5 | −17.5 |
| first filed | 49.0 | +7.7 | 46.6 | −20.5 |
| first filed | 47.8 | +16.5 | 45.8 | −20.1 |
| first filed | 45.5 | +9.6 | 47.8 | −22.1 |
| first filed | 44.2 | +15.4 | 48.2 | −22.5 |
| first filed | 45.5 | +14.5 | 47.0 | −21.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −10.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −41.3 | −10.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +1.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 11.0 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 29.8 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −18.8 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 393 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt plus notes | 187 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 206 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +7.1% on a year | 1.5 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 36.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | 22.4 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 484 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,008 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 802 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 4.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −1.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.1 days of average trading to cover, +7.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.7M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $6.3M |
The thesis
Cryoport's cold-chain business for cell and gene therapies is growing faster and has turned positive on adjusted profit, which makes the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months. The fourth-quarter report settles whether that pace holds. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) action date of 22 November 2026 for Capricor's deramiocel is the nearest test of whether the list of commercial therapies Cryoport supports grows.
The case rests on the 5 November 2026 third-quarter report. It showed a second straight quarter of positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), 20% growth from commercial therapy clients, and 2026 revenue guidance raised to $197–199 million. Brokers kept lifting targets after it: Guggenheim raised its target to $24 from $19 on 11 November 2026 with a Buy rating, fiscal.ai reported.
The market has already priced in much of the report. The shares closed at $20.10 on 12 November 2026, up 31.8% over three months and close to the $21.69 consensus target MarketBeat listed on 6 November 2026. The rating is Medium because the business evidence is improving, while the price already sits near most broker targets. Two positive adjusted EBITDA quarters are too few to call a trend; the third-quarter figure was $1.1 million on $50.2 million of revenue.
Bullish and bearish views on CryoPort, Inc.
The bull case on CryoPort, Inc. (CYRX), in brief: revenue growth accelerated in the third quarter. The bear case: loss per share missed the estimate.
Bull case
- Revenue growth accelerated in the third quarter. Revenue rose 14% to $50.2 million from $44.2 million, per the 5 November 2026 release, after 8% growth in the second quarter. Benzinga put the estimate at $48.8 million.
- Commercial therapy revenue sped up. Revenue from commercial cell and gene therapy clients grew 20% in the third quarter, against 9% in the second quarter, according to the company's releases.
- Services grow with better margin. Life Sciences Services revenue rose 18% to $28.6 million, and its gross margin rose to 50.4% from 49.7% a year earlier, per the 5 November 2026 release. Services made up 57% of revenue, GuruFocus reported.
- Guidance excludes new approvals. The $197–199 million 2026 range compares with a $195.4 million estimate, according to Benzinga, and MarketBeat's call summary says the fourth-quarter outlook includes no revenue from new approvals. Management expects up to five regulatory filings, two new therapy approvals and one supplemental approval for geographic expansion over the rest of 2026, per GuruFocus.
- Three brokers lifted targets after the report. Needham raised its target to $28 from $19 with a Buy rating on 6 November 2026, per Investing.com; KeyBanc raised its target to $20 from $17 with an Overweight rating the same day, per MarketBeat; Guggenheim raised its target to $24 from $19 on 11 November 2026, per fiscal.ai.
- The trial pipeline is at a record. Cryoport supported 788 clinical trials at 30 September 2026, 99 of them in Phase 3, up from 779 at 30 June 2026, plus 23 commercial therapies.
- Cash covers the maturing notes. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $393.1 million at 30 September 2026, against $186.0 million of 2026 convertible notes, per the 10-Q.
Bear case
- Loss per share missed the estimate. The third-quarter net loss was $0.25 per share, against a $0.18 estimate per Benzinga and a $0.18 loss a year earlier. Preferred dividends paid in kind of $2.0 million a quarter widen the loss per common share, per the 10-Q.
- The nearest approval faces doubt. An FDA advisory committee voted 9 to 3 against recommending deramiocel on 29 July 2026. The FDA then extended the review to 22 November 2026 after Capricor filed a major amendment narrowing the proposed indication to upper limb function, CGTLive reported on 24 August 2026.
- Approvals have slipped before. Four customer applications moved from 2026 into 2027, per the company's commentary on the third-quarter call, which pushes part of the commercial volume out a year.
- The price has passed some targets. The $20.10 close on 12 November 2026 is above KeyBanc's $20 target and within reach of the $21.69 consensus MarketBeat listed on 6 November 2026.
- The notes mature on 1 December 2026. The 0.75% convertible senior notes due 2026 mature on 1 December 2026, per the company's 2021 pricing release, and were carried at $186.0 million at 30 September 2026. Repayment would cut the cash balance roughly in half.
- Officers sold into earlier gains. The chief financial officer sold 169,427 shares at a weighted $16.27 on 4 June 2026, and the chief executive sold 28,800 shares at $14.91 on 11 August 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per SEC Form 4 filings.
Price setup
The report re-priced the shares in one session. They closed at $16.05 on 5 November 2026 and at $19.10 on 6 November 2026, then reached a closing high of $20.74 on 10 November 2026 and an intraday 52-week high of $21.78 on 11 November 2026. The $20.10 close on 12 November 2026 sits 7.7% below that high.
The shares trade well above their averages. As of 12 November 2026, the 50-day moving average was $17.35 and the 200-day was $13.66, in adjusted daily closes. The 3-month gain of 31.8% runs from a $15.25 close on 14 August 2026, and the 52-week closing low was $7.72 on 12 March 2026.
The level the case turns on is the 7 August 2026 close after the second-quarter report, where the run that the third-quarter report extended began. A weekly close back under it would erase the gains of both reports.
Catalysts ahead
- 22 November 2026: FDA action date for Capricor's deramiocel in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. It tests whether Cryoport's list of 23 supported commercial therapies grows; an FDA advisory committee voted 9 to 3 against the therapy on 29 July 2026.
- 1 December 2026: Maturity of the 0.75% convertible senior notes due 2026, carried at $186.0 million. Settlement determines how much of the $393.1 million cash and investment balance at 30 September 2026 remains to fund the business.
- ~December 2026 (est.): FDA decision for Arcellx, with the month taken from MarketBeat's call summary. A second approval would add to future commercial volume; management's fourth-quarter outlook excludes revenue from new approvals.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 report (date not yet set). It settles whether revenue reaches the $197–199 million range and whether adjusted EBITDA stays positive for a third straight quarter.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $15.12, the 7 August 2026 close after the second-quarter report, which would erase the gain since that report; or negative fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA or full-year 2026 revenue under $197 million at the next report.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- The adjusted EBITDA turn proves temporary, since the $1.1 million reported for Q3 2026 is small against $50.2 million of revenue. Confirmed by: negative adjusted EBITDA at the Q4 2026 report.
- Commercial therapy growth falls back after the 20% reported for Q3 2026. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 commercial client revenue growth at or near the 9% reported for Q2 2026.
- Customer approvals and filings slip, holding back 2027 commercial volume after four applications moved from 2026 into 2027. Confirmed by: an FDA rejection of deramiocel on 22 November 2026, a negative Arcellx decision, or more filings moved into 2027.
- The share price has run up to the broker target range, leaving less room for upside revisions. Confirmed by: no further target increases while the shares trade above the $21.69 consensus MarketBeat listed on 6 November 2026.
- Biotech funding weakens and trial starts slow, shrinking future volume. Confirmed by: a supported-trial count below 788 at the 31 December 2026 reading.
- Officer selling resumes into strength after the shares reached a 52-week high. Confirmed by: new Form 4 sales by officers after the 5 November 2026 report.
What it trades with
Cryoport's revenue follows the progress of cell and gene therapy developers. The shares tend to move with biotech funding conditions and with FDA decisions on its clients' therapies, such as Capricor's deramiocel and Arcellx's therapy. The Life Sciences Products segment also carries exposure to animal health demand, which is cyclical and separate from therapy approvals.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $50.2 million, up 14% from $44.2 million; Life Sciences Services rose 18% to $28.6 million and Life Sciences Products rose 8% to $21.7 million. Cryoport Q3 2026 results, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K · as of
- Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was positive $1.1 million, against negative $0.6 million in Q3 2025. Cryoport Q3 2026 results, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K · as of
- Revenue from commercial cell and gene therapy clients grew 20% year over year in Q3 2026, against 9% in Q2 2026. Cryoport Q3 and Q2 2026 results, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K · as of
- Cryoport raised 2026 revenue guidance to $197–199 million from $192–196 million, against a $195.441 million estimate. Cryoport Q3 2026 results; Benzinga · as of
- Q3 2026 net loss was $0.25 per common share, against a $0.18 estimate and a $0.18 loss in Q3 2025. Cryoport Q3 2026 results; Benzinga · as of
- Needham raised its target to $28 from $19 (Buy) and KeyBanc to $20 from $17 (Overweight) on 6 November 2026; Guggenheim raised its target to $24 from $19 (Buy) on 11 November 2026. Investing.com; MarketBeat; fiscal.ai · as of
- Cryoport supported 788 clinical trials, 99 of them in Phase 3, and 23 commercial cell and gene therapies. Cryoport Q3 2026 results, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totalled $393.1 million; the 0.75% convertible notes maturing 1 December 2026 were carried at $186.0 million and classified as current. Cryoport Q3 2026 Form 10-Q; 2021 notes pricing release · as of
Sources
- Cryoport, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Cryoport, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Needham raises CryoPort stock price target to $28 on revenue beat · investing.com
- CryoPort (NASDAQ:CYRX) Stock Gets Price Target Boost from KeyCorp · marketbeat.com ·
- CryoPort Q3 Earnings Call Highlights · marketbeat.com ·
- CryoPort (CYRX) Reports Strong Q3 2026 Revenue Growth, Raises Full-Year Guidance · gurufocus.com
- cgtlive.com ·
- Cryoport, Inc. Prices Upsized $350.0 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering · ir.cryoportinc.com
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