BMA · Banco Macro
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $66.04
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $66.04, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 27.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $66.04, which would reverse most of the slide since late October and show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter non-performing financing ratio below the 6.25% second-quarter level would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Banco Macro reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 1.7 days of average trading to cover, −20.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $102K | $0 |
The thesis
Banco Macro's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. They closed at $57.23 on 11 November 2026, the lowest close of the past 52 weeks and 46.1% below the intraday high of $106.15 on 28 January 2026. The three-month change is −28.8% (adjusted daily closes). The third-quarter results settle whether bad loans are rising; the bank has not confirmed the date, and one earnings calendar lists 18 November 2026.
The slide has continued through a buyback. Banco Macro's board approved a repurchase of up to 20 million Class B shares on 29 October 2026, and the shares set a new closing low on 11 November 2026 inside that window. Company buying has not been enough to turn the price.
Bullish and bearish views on Banco Macro S.A.
The bull case on Banco Macro S.A. (BMA), in brief: the bank is buying back its own shares. The bear case: the shares keep making lows.
Bull case
- The bank is buying back its own shares. The board approved up to 20 million Class B shares at a maximum of Ps$10,700 each over 45 calendar days (company announcement, 29 October 2026). The bank said the share price does not reflect the fair value of its assets.
- Capital and liquidity are large. The second-quarter 2026 release (Form 6-K, 19 August 2026) reported a Tier 1 capital ratio of 28% and liquid assets equal to 74% of deposits. These buffers matter most if sovereign stress deepens.
- Analysts still see a wide gap to the price. UBS cut its target from $130 to $90 on 13 October 2026 and kept its Buy rating (MarketBeat, 26 October 2026). MarketBeat's consensus target is $101.25. Both sit far above the $57.23 close.
- A director bought shares. SEC Form 4 filed 16 September 2026 shows director Marcos Brito bought 1,500 shares at $68.27 on 19 March 2026. The purchase is small and dated, and no insider sales appear in recent filings.
Bear case
- The shares keep making lows. The close of $57.23 on 11 November 2026 is below the $57.76 close of 6 November 2026 and the $57.83 close of 10 November 2026. MarketBeat reported an 11.2% intraday drop on 26 October 2026, to a low of $58.01.
- The buyback has the price. Daily purchases are capped at 25% of the 90-day average trading volume (company announcement, 29 October 2026), which limits how much the program can add each day. The window is scheduled to end around 13 December 2026.
- Credit quality has not improved in reported data. The second-quarter release showed non-performing financing of 6.25% and coverage of 95.39% (Form 6-K, 19 August 2026). iProfesional reported on 25 August 2026 that the bank cut its 2026 real loan growth outlook to between 2% and 5%.
- Analysts have trimmed their views. Itau BBA cut its rating to market perform on 3 September 2026, and UBS lowered its target by $40 on 13 October 2026 (MarketBeat). Forbes Argentina reported that UBS raised its cost-of-capital assumption for Argentina from 5% to 7%.
- Sovereign and political stress weigh on Argentine banks. Forbes Argentina and El Economista reported that Argentine bank shares had fallen between 28% and 40% in dollar terms for 2026 by late October, with markets more pessimistic about President Javier Milei's re-election prospects.
Price setup
The shares closed at $57.23 on 11 November 2026, the 52-week closing low. The 50-day moving average is $67.47 and the 200-day moving average is $78.34 (adjusted closes, as of 11 November 2026). The close sits below both, and the 50-day average is itself below the 200-day.
The intraday low of $58.01 on 26 October 2026 has been broken. No closing price below $57.23 exists in the past year, so there is no nearby prior low to mark support.
Several Form 6-K reports were filed between 2 November 2026 and 12 November 2026. The company's own filings list them without a description, and the bank's results release has not yet appeared.
Catalysts ahead
- ~18 November 2026 (est.): Banco Macro third-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether non-performing financing stays at or below the 6.25% second-quarter level; the bank has not confirmed the date, and one earnings calendar lists 18 November 2026.
- ~13 December 2026 (est.): End of the 45-day share repurchase window. Marks when company buying under the program is scheduled to end.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~12 November 2026 (est.): INDEC release of Argentina's October 2026 consumer price index. Shows whether disinflation resumes after September's rise to 1.9% from 1.7%. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $66.04, which would reverse most of the slide since late October and show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter non-performing financing ratio below the 6.25% second-quarter level would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Banco Macro trades with other Argentine bank shares listed in the US and with Argentine sovereign risk. Forbes Argentina and El Economista reported late-October declines across Supervielle, Galicia, BBVA Argentina and Macro. JPMorgan's country-risk spread reached 609 points on 25 September 2026, and Banco Macro's shares fell 3.4% that day. Political news about Argentina's next election tends to move the bank shares and the sovereign bonds together.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Close of $57.23, the 52-week closing low, 46.1% below the intraday high of $106.15 set on 28 January 2026; the adjusted three-month change is −28.8%. Daily closes · as of
- Board approved a repurchase of up to 20 million Class B shares at up to Ps$10,700 per share over 45 calendar days; the bank said the share price does not reflect the fair value of its assets. Company announcement, as reported by Forbes Argentina and Finviz · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 non-performing financing was 6.25% with coverage of 95.39%. Banco Macro Form 6-K, second-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Tier 1 capital ratio of 28% and liquid assets equal to 74% of deposits at the quarter ended 30 June 2026. Banco Macro Form 6-K, second-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- UBS cut its price target from $130 to $90 and kept a Buy rating; MarketBeat's consensus target is $101.25. MarketBeat · as of
- Director Marcos Brito bought 1,500 shares at $68.27 on 19 March 2026, reported on Form 4 filed 16 September 2026. SEC Form 4 · as of
- Argentina's September 2026 consumer prices rose 1.9% month on month (August: 1.7%); year-on-year inflation was 33.4%. INDEC CPI release as reported by iProUP · as of
Sources
- MarketBeat ·
- Forbes Argentina
- Finviz
- Banco Macro announces Results for the 2Q 2026 · macro.com.ar
- iprofesional.com
- Macro Bank Inc. - Form 6-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
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