BMA · Banco Macro S.A.

Current Thesis

Banco Macro's recovery remains a sovereign-risk repricing case: a weekly close above the September 4 reference close of $78.57 would confirm the shelf recovery, while a weekly close below $72 would invalidate it. The new support is Argentina's August consumer price index (CPI), which rose 1.7% month on month in the September 10 release. That result did not meet the previous note's inflation-break condition of at least 2.1%; the next release is October 13. INDEC, September 10, 2026.

The market has not yet confirmed that recovery. The supplied adjusted daily series records a September 11 close of $77.82, below September 4's $78.57 and the previously identified $78 shelf. The narrative is maturing — the sovereign-repricing explanation already appeared in the September 5 research, and the September 10 inflation improvement has not produced a higher reference close. This is an inference about the recovery's development, not a measurement of investor flows.

The evidence supports medium conviction in the narrowly defined shelf-recovery case. Slower August inflation supports the macro premise, but the September 11 close does not establish renewed price expansion, and the August 20 earnings call's reduced loan-growth guidance still constrains the company case.

Bullish and bearish views on Banco Macro S.A.

The model's bull view on Banco Macro S.A. (BMA), in brief: Inflation cleared the previous hurdle. INDEC reported August CPI growth of 1.7% month on month on September 10, below the previous note's 2.1% headline threshold. This removes that particular August invalidation; it does not establish a durable inflation trend. INDEC release.… The bear view: Credit quality remains the constraint. The August 19 Q2 release reported non-performing loans (NPLs) at 6.25% of total financing and coverage at 95.39%. These figures leave the recovery without demonstrated improvement in credit quality. Q2 results. Management reduced the growth… Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Inflation cleared the previous hurdle. INDEC reported August CPI growth of 1.7% month on month on September 10, below the previous note's 2.1% headline threshold. This removes that particular August invalidation; it does not establish a durable inflation trend. INDEC release.
• The recovery shelf remains nearby. The September 11 adjusted close of $77.82 remains above the August 21 close of $72.84, according to the supplied daily bars. A weekly close above September 4's $78.57 would complete the defined recovery case before the $72 weekly invalidation.
• Capital provides a financial buffer. Banco Macro reported a 28% Tier 1 capital ratio and liquid assets equal to 74% of deposits for Q2 on August 19. Those measured buffers support financial resilience; they do not establish that borrower defaults have peaked. Q2 results.

Bear Case

• Credit quality remains the constraint. The August 19 Q2 release reported non-performing loans (NPLs) at 6.25% of total financing and coverage at 95.39%. These figures leave the recovery without demonstrated improvement in credit quality. Q2 results.
• Management reduced the growth case. The August 20 Q2 call guided full-year real loan growth to 2–5% and cost of risk to 6.5–7%, as recorded in the September 5 published research. A macro recovery therefore still requires separate confirmation in the bank's lending and provisioning results.
• The broader decline remains visible. On September 11, the supplied adjusted series showed a three-month price decline of 20.8% and a close 23.2% below its $101.37 trailing-year high. The recent recovery has not repaired that longer price structure.

Setup & Price Structure

The September 11 reference close of $77.82 sits below the $78 shelf identified in the September 5 research but above the August 14 close of $77.61. Those observations describe a contested shelf; they do not establish a durable base. The published recovery case is a weekly close above $78.57 before a weekly close below $72. Both thresholds retain the earlier research's market structure.

The 14-period relative strength index (RSI) measured 67.8 on September 11, compared with 49.3 on September 4, in the supplied price snapshots. Momentum strengthened while the latest reference close remained below September 4's close. No current moving-average, turnover, short-interest or investor-flow observations accompany these snapshots, so they cannot establish crowding or expanding participation.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• 2026-10-13 — September CPI release. INDEC lists this as its next publication date. It supplies the next observation of whether August's 1.7% monthly inflation reading persists; the September 10 event has elapsed. INDEC publication schedule.
• ~2026-11-19, est. Q3 results. This remains the unconfirmed estimate recorded in the September 5 research, outside the next 30 days. The company-level recovery turns on whether NPLs enter management's August 20 full-year range of 5.5–6% and coverage remains above its guided 90% floor.

What Would Change Our Mind

Loss of the August recovery structure would end the price thesis: a weekly close below $72 would place the shares below the August 21 reference close of $72.84 cited in the September 5 research. Conversely, a weekly close above September 4's $78.57 would satisfy the defined shelf-recovery case; it would not demonstrate that lending conditions had improved.

A separate company-level reassessment requires Q3 evidence. NPLs within the 5.5–6% range guided on August 20, alongside coverage improving from Q2's 95.39%, would support credit stabilisation. Coverage below management's 90% floor would contradict that interpretation.

Correlation Notes

The sovereign linkage remains an inference. The September 5 research cited country risk below 500 basis points on September 2 and simultaneous bank gains on September 1: BBAR rose 4.1%, Supervielle 3.2%, and Galicia and Banco Macro approximately 3%, according to the Rio Times market reports quoted there. That small sample supports no statistical correlation claim and does not establish continued group participation through September 11.

This remains a single-name setup, with emerging markets serving as a broad classification. A measured company connection to sovereign conditions exists: the August 19 Q2 filing reported public-sector assets at 25.9% of total assets. That exposure provides an economic channel for sovereign developments, without proving that they caused the September price movement. Q2 public-sector assets disclosure.