BMNR · BitMine Immersion Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $23.67
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
25.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $23.67, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 6.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $23.67, the 50-day average of closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500, or a company statement lifting the 5% ether-supply cap.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 31 August 2026, filed 10 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 64.9
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +4801.3
- Gross margin (%)
- 84.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 4347.0
All filed numbers
What BitMine Immersion Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 64.9 | +4801.3 | 84.4 | 4347.0 |
| first filed | 46.5 | +2167.8 | 87.7 | −25.5 |
| first filed | 11.0 | +627.8 | 87.1 | −34784.7 |
| first filed | 2.3 | +90.9 | 55.3 | −238564.8 |
| first filed | 1.3 | — | −5.1 | 33696.3 |
| first filed | 2.1 | +67.5 | 23.9 | −22.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 2,793 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −6,321 | 2,785 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 31 May 2026, filed 14 July 2026; against the quarter to 31 May 2025 | +27404.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −305 |
| Capital spending ($M) four quarters to 31 May 2026, filed 14 July 2026 | 1.5 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 545 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −100.0% on a year | 0.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 15,123 |
| Market value ($M) | 11,013 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.2 days of average trading to cover, +14.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $15K | $0 |
The thesis
BitMine Immersion is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its shares track ether, and its buying of ether is close to the company's own stated stop. The company held 4.97% of ether supply on 8 November 2026, and Chairman Tom Lee called 5% a "hard cap" on 7 October 2026. The weekly holdings releases due through late November show whether buying ends, and with it the company's role as a steady buyer of ether.
The fiscal 2026 annual report, filed on Form 10-K on 10 November 2026, puts a number on the cost of ether's fall. The company reported a $6.3 billion net loss for the year ended 31 August 2026, against a $348.6 million profit a year earlier, per Cointelegraph. The 10-K shows a $6,229.1 million unrealized loss on digital assets. Revenue was $124.8 million, 97% of it from staking, per Cointelegraph.
The rating is Low because the shares closed at $19.24 on 11 November 2026, below both their 50-day and 200-day averages. Nothing in the 10-K or the latest weekly release gives the shares a driver beyond ether's price. At that close, the market prices BitMine as an ether holder whose buying has nearly run its course. The shares sit 54.3% below the $42.09 intraday 52-week high of 10 December 2025.
Bullish and bearish views on BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR), in brief: weekly buying picked up again. The bear case: the buyer is nearly at its stop.
Bull case
- Weekly buying picked up again. The company bought 9,587 ETH in the week to 8 November 2026, up from 8,573 ETH the week before. That ended a three-week decline from 12,535 ETH. Holdings reached 6,070,092 ETH. [Company release 9 November 2026 via Coingape; The Block 2 November 2026]
- Staking produces recurring revenue. Staked ETH was 5,227,037 on 8 November 2026, about 86% of holdings. The company projects $309 million of annualized staking rewards at a 2.65% seven-day yield, and Lee expects $359 million once all holdings are staked. [Coingape 9 November 2026]
- Fiscal 2026 revenue beat the estimate. Revenue of $124.8 million topped the $119.8 million average analyst estimate, per Cointelegraph on 11 November 2026. Staking and validation contributed $121.4 million. [FY2026 10-K; Cointelegraph 11 November 2026]
- A large buyback authorization remains. The company repurchased 20,819,071 shares at an average of $17 in fiscal 2026. $3.6 billion remained under its $4.0 billion authorization at year-end. [FY2026 10-K]
- Liabilities are small against assets. Total assets were $15.4 billion and liabilities $33.7 million at 31 August 2026, per Cointelegraph's reading of the 10-K. [Cointelegraph 11 November 2026]
Bear case
- The buyer is nearly at its stop. The company held 4.97% of ether supply on 8 November 2026. Lee called 5% a "hard cap" at Token2049 on 7 October 2026. [Coingape 9 November 2026; Cointelegraph 11 November 2026]
- Ether's fall drove a $6.3 billion loss. The 10-K's $6,229.1 million unrealized loss on digital assets made up nearly all of the fiscal 2026 net loss. Ether fell from about $4,390 at the start of the fiscal year to about $2,467 on 31 August 2026, per Cointelegraph. [FY2026 10-K; Cointelegraph 11 November 2026]
- The holdings total keeps falling. The company's total of crypto, cash and investments was $15.1 billion in the 19 October 2026 release, $14.5 billion on 2 November 2026 and $14.3 billion on 9 November 2026. The latest figure marked ether at $2,234. [Company releases via Benzinga, The Block and Coingape]
- Cash is shrinking. Cash and marketable securities were $714 million on 20 September 2026, $498 million on 1 November 2026 and $475 million on 8 November 2026. The weekly releases do not break out how much went to ether, buybacks or preferred dividends. [Company releases 21 September 2026, 2 November 2026 and 9 November 2026]
- Heavy issuance and a senior claim. The company sold 395,136,273 shares through its at-the-market program in fiscal 2026 for $13,201 million gross. The 10-K cover shows 626,451,021 shares outstanding on 4 November 2026. Its 9.50% cumulative Series A preferred stock carries a $100 liquidation preference that ranks ahead of common shareholders. [FY2026 10-K]
Price setup
BMNR closed at $19.24 on 11 November 2026, after $18.08 on 10 November 2026, the session before the 10-K was released after the close. The last close sits below the 50-day average of $23.67 and the 200-day average of $20.54 as of 11 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. The shares gained 5.2% over three months from the $18.29 close on 13 August 2026.
The shares closed at $21.73 on 4 November 2026, then fell to $19.00 on 5 November 2026 and traded between $18.08 and $19.24 through 11 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $13.31, set on 30 June 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $42.09, set on 10 December 2025.
SEC Form 4 filings dated 23 October 2026 and 26 October 2026 show option exercises by five directors, plus share awards and tax withholding for the chief executive and the chief financial officer. None reports an open-market purchase or sale.
Catalysts ahead
- ~16 November 2026 (est.): Weekly ETH holdings and total-assets press release. Shows whether holdings cross 5% of supply and whether the company states that its buying has ended.
- ~23 November 2026 (est.): Weekly ETH holdings and total-assets press release. Shows the cash balance against $475M on 8 November 2026 and whether any new funding or buyback activity is disclosed.
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): Weekly ETH holdings press release at the end of the fiscal first quarter. Gives the quarter-end ether count, cash and holdings total that the next 10-Q will report.
- ~14 January 2027 (est.): Form 10-Q for the quarter ending 30 November 2026. First audited-format update on share count, buybacks, issuance and preferred dividends after the purchases near the 5% cap.
What would change the view
A daily close above $23.67, the 50-day average of closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500, or a company statement lifting the 5% ether-supply cap.
What it trades with
The shares trade as a claim on ether, which moves with bitcoin and with interest-rate news. Benzinga tied the 11 November 2026 crypto decline to investors weighing the odds of a rate hike. Other ether treasury companies, such as SharpLink, trade on the same driver. Two leveraged single-stock funds that reference BMNR (BMNU and BMNG) rebalance daily and add end-of-day trading that has nothing to do with the company's holdings.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- BitMine bought 9,587 ETH in the week to 8 November 2026 and held 6,070,092 ETH, 4.97% of ether supply, with 5,227,037 ETH staked. Company release 9 November 2026 via Coingape · as of
- Total crypto, cash and investments were $14.3B at an ether mark of $2,234, including $475M of cash and marketable securities and 216 BTC. Company release 9 November 2026 via Coingape · as of
- Fiscal 2026 net loss was $6.3B, against a $348.6M profit in fiscal 2025, driven by a $6,229.1M unrealized loss on digital assets. FY2026 Form 10-K filed 10 November 2026; Cointelegraph 11 November 2026 · as of
- Fiscal 2026 revenue was $124.8M against a $119.8M average analyst estimate; staking and validation contributed $121.4M (97%). FY2026 Form 10-K; Cointelegraph 11 November 2026 · as of
- 626,451,021 common shares were outstanding on 4 November 2026. FY2026 Form 10-K cover page · as of
- In fiscal 2026 BitMine sold 395,136,273 shares via its at-the-market program for $13,201M gross and repurchased 20,819,071 shares at an average of $17; $3.6B of its $4.0B buyback authorization remained. FY2026 Form 10-K · as of
- Chairman Tom Lee called 5% of ether supply a hard cap on the company's holdings at Token2049. Cointelegraph 11 November 2026 · as of
- BitMine bought 8,573 ETH in the week to 1 November 2026 and reported $498M of cash and marketable securities. Company release 2 November 2026 via The Block · as of
Sources
- BITMINE IMMERSION TECHNOLOGIES, INC. - Form 10-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Bitmine Reports $6.3B Annual Net Loss as Ether Falls · cointelegraph.com ·
- BitMine Adds 9,587 ETH as Total Ethereum Holdings Reach 6.07 Million Tokens · coingape.com ·
- Bitmine adds 8,573 ETH as Tom Lee flags muted Binance hack reaction · theblock.co ·
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