Watchlist
BMNR · BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 18 September 2026; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Resolved Graded and closed 2026-08-28 at low conviction — the published kill line did not fire. Coverage continued after the close; the read below is dated 2026-09-10 and is not part of the scored record.
Current thesis
Premium-to-NAV funding engine is closed; the 2026-08-10 release shows capital flipping from coin to float — 7,391 ETH bought for $14.3M (smallest week of 2026) against 3.0M shares retired, with cash down to $104M from $173M. The narrative on offer is a shrinking denominator at roughly parity to $11.6B of stated holdings. Next weekly release 2026-08-17.
Kill line
A weekly close below $16.50 gives back the 2026-07-27 repricing that carried price through the $18 shelf; secondary conditions, a weekly release showing shares outstanding rising instead of falling, or ETH through the $1,700s with total holdings marked below $10.5B.
Pick status
Played out resolved published kill line did not fire How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for BMNR —
As of 10 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR): Premium-to-NAV funding engine is closed; the 2026-08-10 release shows capital flipping from coin to float — 7,391 ETH bought for $14.3M (smallest week of 2026) against 3.0M shares retired, with cash down to $104M from $173M. The narrative on offer is a shrinking denominator at roughly parity to $11.6B of stated holdings. Next weekly release 2026-08-17.
Kill line: A weekly close below $16.50 gives back the 2026-07-27 repricing that carried price through the $18 shelf; secondary conditions, a weekly release showing shares outstanding rising instead of falling, or ETH through the $1,700s with total holdings marked below $10.5B.
Most recent dated event on file: — catalyst 4d ago.
Current Thesis
BitMine Immersion Technologies’ ether accumulation and staking support a recovery thesis that succeeds on a weekly close above B. Riley Securities’ $30 target before a weekly close below $16.50 invalidates it. Benzinga reported the analyst’s target increase on 2026-09-03. Medium conviction remains appropriate: accumulation is documented, but improvement in assets attributable to each common share remains unproven.
The 2026-09-08 company release reports 5,929,198 ether (ETH), aggregate holdings of $15.7 billion and cash and marketable securities of $593 million as of 2026-09-07. These are company-reported totals, not audited net asset value per common share. Company release, 2026-09-08.
The narrative is maturing — Benzinga’s analyst coverage on 2026-09-03 and renewed accumulation coverage on 2026-09-08 show a recurring story. This is an inference about familiarity; those headlines do not establish exhausted demand. The incremental development is weaker market pricing: the adjusted close was $24.21 on 2026-09-09, versus $24.77 on 2026-09-08.
Bullish and bearish views on BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc.
The model's bull view on BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR), in brief: Ether accumulation remains observable. The 2026-09-08 release reports another 28,086 ETH acquired during the preceding week. That supports the accumulation component of the thesis. Company release. Analyst valuation moved higher. B. Riley Securities raised its target to $30 from… The bear view: The share denominator remains missing. The 2026-09-08 release omits shares outstanding and repurchases. Aggregate assets cannot establish net asset value per common share without the share count, liabilities and preferred claims. Company release. Staking revenue remains a… Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Ether accumulation remains observable. The 2026-09-08 release reports another 28,086 ETH acquired during the preceding week. That supports the accumulation component of the thesis. Company release.
- Analyst valuation moved higher. B. Riley Securities raised its target to $30 from $25 on 2026-09-03, according to Benzinga. The attributed target supplies the retained price test; it does not independently verify common-share asset value.
Bear Case
- The share denominator remains missing. The 2026-09-08 release omits shares outstanding and repurchases. Aggregate assets cannot establish net asset value per common share without the share count, liabilities and preferred claims. Company release.
- Staking revenue remains a projection. The 2026-09-08 release reports 5,067,309 ETH staked as of 2026-09-07 and projects $330 million of annualized staking revenue. That projection is not realized annual revenue. Company release.
Setup & Price Structure
The adjusted daily series through 2026-09-09 records a $24.21 close, a three-month gain of 54.8% and a price 61.7% below the 52-week high of $63.20. These measurements describe a recovery within a larger drawdown. No moving-average level is supplied, so distance above a rising average cannot be assessed.
Fundstrat data cited in the 2026-09-08 release show average daily dollar volume of $1.10 billion for the five days ended 2026-09-04. This measures activity rather than investor concentration. Company release. The Benzinga headlines dated 2026-09-03 and 2026-09-08 document coverage clustering, but the sample is too small to support a claim about retail crowding.
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
No upcoming dated catalysts on file — the dated entries below have passed.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~2026-09-14, estimated holdings update. The estimate follows the weekly disclosure cadence through the 2026-09-08 release; the date is unconfirmed. A fresh share count and repurchase disclosure would address the unresolved denominator. Latest company release. (passed 6d ago)
- 2026-09-16, monetary-policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on 2026-09-15–2026-09-16, with economic projections scheduled. This is a sector-level event: Benzinga’s 2026-09-10 report linked cryptocurrency declines to rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions. No directional rate forecast is assumed. Federal Reserve calendar. (passed 4d ago)
What Would Change Our Mind
Failure of the recovery structure ends the published price case: a weekly close below $16.50 invalidates it before the weekly-close-above-$30 success condition is reached. The lower threshold retains the research level published on 2026-09-09; it is not presented as a newly verified moving average or support shelf.
The missing common-share reconciliation in the 2026-09-08 release remains the fundamental test. A subsequent filing showing declining net assets per common share despite additional ETH would contradict the economic rationale for accumulation. Continued omission leaves that rationale unproven rather than confirming dilution.
Correlation Notes
FrontierPicks’ Crypto exchanges & financials group assessment moved from accelerating on 2026-09-06 to maturing on 2026-09-10. That is a dated editorial assessment of the group, not a measured correlation or a verdict on BitMine.
Benzinga’s 2026-09-10 report describes cryptocurrency weakness alongside rising Treasury yields. Combined with BitMine’s disclosed ETH concentration as of 2026-09-07, this supports an inference of shared crypto and rate sensitivity. The supplied observations are too few to establish a correlation coefficient, a stable market sensitivity or persistent divergence from ether.
Notes
- Fiscal year ends August 31. FY2026 closed 2026-08-31, so reporting sits off the calendar-quarter cycle and the 10-K follows later.
- Holdings are disclosed weekly by press release, typically Monday, far more often than the company files with the SEC.
- Weekly releases do not always disclose repurchases or shares outstanding; the 2026-08-24 and 2026-08-31 releases omitted both.
- Substantially all stated value is one asset: 5,901,112 ETH as of 2026-08-30. The equity behaves as a levered ether claim.
- Two leveraged single-stock ETFs (BMNU, BMNG) reference BMNR; their daily rebalancing adds end-of-day flow unrelated to holdings.
- The $4.0B repurchase authorization has no fixed timetable; the weekly pace can stop between releases without separate notice.
Related · shared themes
ASST
Strive, Inc.
Strive, Inc.'s bitcoin-treasury premium thesis depends on increasing bitcoin per diluted common share. A company-reported year-to-date Bitcoin Yield above the 40.8% reading dated 2026-08-28 would confirm the case before a weekly close below $21 invalidates it; the September 8 filing supplies no updated yield.
BULL
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June dormant-to-leader flip is confirming: the ~$7.52 breakout resolved up on the 2026-07-21 surge, Rosenblatt lifted its target to $13 (2026-07-16), and June ops printed 28.2M users / $800M net deposits. Theme accelerating; read is a held-breakout continuation as long as $7.30 holds as the flipped support shelf.
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
Coinbase’s recovery now rests on agency-led crypto market access after the Senate setback. Confirmation requires a weekly close above the historical $196.07 reference and third-quarter subscription-and-services revenue within the published $500–580 million guidance range before a weekly close below $160 breaks the case.
HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
Robinhood Markets' September repricing now includes prediction-market infrastructure alongside on-chain finance. Stronger August activity and a weekly close above $124.72 would confirm continuation; a weekly close below $107 would invalidate it.
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