BLMN · Bloomin' Brands
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $11.85
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $11.85, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 3.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $11.85, the highest close of the last 126 sessions (5 August 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 27 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 944
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +1.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 70.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 2.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 122
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −677
- Price to earnings (×)
- 12.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.4
All filed numbers
What Bloomin' Brands reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 944 | +1.7 | 70.5 | 2.0 |
| first filed | 1,016 | +1.3 | 69.8 | 3.8 |
| first filed | 1,060 | +1.0 | 70.0 | 5.6 |
| first filed | 975 | +0.3 | 70.2 | −1.4 |
| first filed | 929 | +2.1 | 70.4 | −3.9 |
| first filed | 1,002 | +0.3 | 70.2 | 3.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 7.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 71.3 | −2.2 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 28 September 2025 | +0.6 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 292 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 171 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 122 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 90.7 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 768 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −677 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −4.5% on a year | 287 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 63.2 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 431 |
| Market value ($M) | 889 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,567 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 15.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 12.5 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 13.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 14.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.4 days of average trading to cover, +7.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $502K | $711K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $565K | $711K |
The thesis
Bloomin' Brands raised its FY2026 adjusted earnings-per-share range again on 6 November 2026, to $0.97–$1.02, but guests are still declining and the fourth-quarter outlook came in below analyst estimates. The fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, decides whether the margin repair holds through the holiday quarter. Until it arrives, the case is more likely to trail the S&P 500 than lead it.
The story is well known: the guidance raise came with a third-quarter beat, yet the shares closed at $9.93 on 10 November 2026, below the $9.99 close of 28 October 2026 and 8.0% lower over three months. The market weighed a Q4 adjusted EPS guide of $0.07–$0.12 against a $0.14 analyst estimate (company news, 6 November 2026). Separately, the company agreed on 2 November 2026 to buy 61 Outback restaurants from a bankrupt franchisee.
Bullish and bearish views on Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
The bull case on Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN), in brief: third quarter beat the estimate. The bear case: traffic fell at every brand.
Bull case
- Third quarter beat the estimate. Q3 adjusted diluted EPS was a loss of $(0.17), against a $(0.24) estimate and the company's own $(0.27) to $(0.22) guide. Revenue was $944.3 million, up 1.7% from $928.8 million (Q3 2026 release, 6 November 2026).
- Full-year range raised a second time. Adjusted EPS guidance went to $0.97–$1.02 from $0.90–$1.00, and GAAP diluted EPS guidance to $1.06–$1.11 from $0.85–$0.95 (8-K exhibit, 6 November 2026). The August release had already lifted the range from $0.75–$0.90.
- Pricing still lifts sales. Combined US comparable sales rose 1.9% in Q3, with average check up 3.7%, and Bonefish Grill comparable sales rose 5.3% (company release and call highlights, 6 November 2026).
- Outback gains control of more units. Outback agreed to a $26.3 million stalking-horse bid for 61 restaurants of franchisee Out West Restaurant Group, which filed Chapter 11 in Delaware on 2 November 2026. Business Observer reported Outback has about 115 US franchised and 544 company-owned units.
- One target moved up before the print. UBS raised its target to $11.50 from $9 on 2 November 2026, keeping Neutral (Investing.com). Citigroup's target is $12.25 (23 October 2026) and JPMorgan's $13 (29 September 2026).
Bear case
- Traffic fell at every brand. Q3 combined US traffic fell 1.8%: Outback 1.5%, Carrabba's 2.9%, Bonefish 0.8% and Fleming's 1.9% (Q3 2026 release). Q2 traffic had fallen 1.9%, so higher checks are still doing all the work.
- The holiday-quarter guide is soft. Q4 guidance calls for US comparable sales of 0% to 1% and adjusted EPS of $0.07–$0.12, below the $0.14 estimate. The full-year comparable-sales range narrowed to 1%–1.5% from 1%–2% (company release, 6 November 2026).
- Underlying margins slipped. Adjusted restaurant-level operating margin was 9.3% against 9.5% a year earlier, and adjusted operating margin was 0.3% against 0.8%. Reported revenue included $13.2 million of gift-card breakage from an accounting-estimate change.
- Debt rose during the quarter. Total debt was $767.97 million against $90.74 million of cash at 27 September 2026, up from $702.8 million of debt at the end of Q2. The Out West deal adds a $26.3 million purchase and up to $5.5 million of interest-free financing to the franchisee.
- A bearish target sits below the price. Bank of America Securities kept Underweight with an $8.80 target on 27 October 2026, per fiscal.ai.
Price setup
The adjusted close on 10 November 2026 was $9.93, 16.2% below the 52-week high of $11.85. The shares are down 8.0% over three months. The 14-day relative strength index is 49.1, down from 66.9 on 28 October 2026, so the earlier stretched reading has fully cooled.
The September 2026 slide ended at $7.88 on 25 September 2026 (Motley Fool). MarketBeat put the 50-day simple moving average at $9.32 and the 200-day at $8.49 on 26 October 2026; the latest close sits above both of those readings. Crowding signals are modest: Stock Analysis showed 10.27% of float sold short on 20 September 2026, and the next earnings date is more than three months away.
Catalysts ahead
- ~December 2026 (est., court date unset): Delaware bankruptcy court decision on Outback as stalking-horse bidder for 61 Out West restaurants, then auction. Settles whether Bloomin' takes control of about half its US Outback franchise units and how much more capital the deal absorbs.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Q4 FY2026 results and FY2027 guidance. Tests the $0.07–$0.12 Q4 adjusted EPS guide, whether traffic turns positive, and whether FY2027 guidance builds on the $0.97–$1.02 FY2026 range.
What would change the view
A daily close above $11.85, the highest close of the last 126 sessions (5 August 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares trade with US casual-dining peers such as Darden Restaurants, whose Olive Garden reported guest counts down 2.2% in the quarter ended 30 August 2026. Bloomin' is more sensitive than its peers to rates and fuel prices because of its debt: Motley Fool tied a 10.1% one-day drop on 15 September 2026 to oil prices and Treasury yields. Read-through from other casual-dining reports on traffic tends to move the shares as much as company news.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 FY26 revenue $944.3M vs $928.8M a year earlier; adjusted diluted EPS $(0.17) vs $(0.03); revenue included $13.2M gift-card breakage. Bloomin' Brands Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $0.97–$1.02 from $0.90–$1.00; US comparable sales guidance narrowed to 1%–1.5% from 1%–2%. Bloomin' Brands Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Q4 FY26 guidance: US comparable sales 0% to 1%, adjusted EPS $0.07–$0.12 against a $0.14 analyst estimate. Company release; company-news headline · as of
- Q3 combined US comparable sales +1.9%, traffic −1.8%; Outback traffic −1.5%, Carrabba's −2.9%, Bonefish −0.8%, Fleming's −1.9%. Bloomin' Brands Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Adjusted restaurant-level operating margin 9.3% vs 9.5%; adjusted operating margin 0.3% vs 0.8% a year earlier. Bloomin' Brands Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Total debt $767.97M and cash $90.74M at quarter end. Bloomin' Brands Q3 2026 earnings release · as of
- Outback agreed to a $26.3M stalking-horse bid for 61 Out West restaurants and up to $5.5M of interest-free financing after the franchisee's Chapter 11 filing. Business Observer · as of
- UBS kept Neutral and raised its target to $11.50 from $9; Bank of America kept Underweight with an $8.80 target on 27 October 2026. Investing.com; fiscal.ai · as of
Sources
- Bloomin' Brands, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Bloomin' Brands Announces 2026 Q3 Financial Results · investors.bloominbrands.com
- Yahoo Finance
- Bloomin Brands Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · benzinga.com
- Bloomin' Brands looks to buy Outback restaurants from bankrupt franchisee · businessobserverfl.com
- A 61-unit Outback Steakhouse franchisee files for bankruptcy · nrn.com
- Bloomin' Brands stock price target raised to $11.50 by UBS · investing.com
- Bloomin' Brands rises on Q3 beat despite soft Q4 outlook · in.investing.com
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