BBAR · Banco BBVA Argentina
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $12.99
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $12.99, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 30.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $12.99, the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter results with a non-performing-loan ratio below 6.09% and return on equity above 12.2% would also point to leadership.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Filed figures are not available: no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F).
All filed numbers
What Banco BBVA Argentina reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): the share of shares outstanding is not available, 1.0 days of average trading to cover, +50.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Banco BBVA Argentina's American depositary shares (ADSs, the US-listed receipts for its Argentine stock) are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. They trade on Argentine sovereign risk, and country risk reached 831 basis points on 3 November 2026, the highest of 2026, per Rava Bursátil as reported by Rankia. The third-quarter report, which the company has scheduled for after the US close on 24 November 2026, shows whether credit quality held.
The ADS closed at $10.66 on 11 November 2026. That is 52.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $22.46 set on 17 June 2026, and the adjusted three-month change is −33.5%. The shares sit below both their 50-day and 200-day averages (the 200-day average of adjusted closes is $15.76). The market has already priced in a sharp rise in sovereign risk: country risk stood at 831 basis points on 3 November 2026 against a 2026 low of 402 on 10 July 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Banco BBVA Argentina S.A.
The bull case on Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR), in brief: second-quarter profitability improved. The bear case: sovereign risk keeps widening.
Bull case
- Second-quarter profitability improved. The bank's 6-K (the foreign-issuer interim report) of 27 August 2026 showed inflation-adjusted net income of ARS 131.6 billion, up 44.6% from the first quarter. Real return on average equity rose to 12.2% from 8.3%.
- Lending grew in real terms. The same filing put private-sector financing at ARS 17.1 trillion, up 13.1% year over year after inflation adjustment.
- Selling has been heavy and complete. The shares closed at $10.60 on 6 November 2026, their lowest close of the past 52 weeks, and held between $10.60 and $10.83 over the next three sessions through 11 November 2026. A third-quarter report that keeps return on equity near 12.2% would be the first bank-level fact to counter the sovereign-risk move.
Bear case
- Sovereign risk keeps widening. Country risk was 490 basis points on 14 September 2026, 609 on 25 September 2026 and 831 on 3 November 2026. The AL30D dollar bond lost 1.05% to $52.85 on 3 November 2026.
- Banks fall hardest on risk spikes. Rankia reported that when country risk jumped 58 points to 765 in late October after the Brazilian election result, Galicia (GGAL) fell 4.79% and the Merval index fell almost 3%. BBAR's Buenos Aires share closed at ARS 6,180 on 2 November 2026, down about 3.3%, per Rava.
- Disinflation paused. INDEC, the national statistics agency, reported 1.9% monthly inflation for September on 13 October 2026, above August's 1.7%. The annual rate was 33.4%.
- UBS cut its target. On 13 October 2026 UBS kept a Neutral rating and cut its price target from $20 to $15, per Benzinga's analyst listing.
- Credit quality weakened in the second quarter. The non-performing-loan ratio rose to 6.09% from 5.60%, and coverage fell to 79.91% from 88.41%, per the 6-K of 27 August 2026. INDEC put July output down 1.4% year over year.
Price setup
The ADS closed at $10.66 on 11 November 2026, after closes of $11.18 on 4 November 2026, $10.75 on 5 November 2026 and a 52-week closing low of $10.60 on 6 November 2026. Closes on 9 November 2026 ($10.83), 10 November 2026 ($10.74) and 11 November 2026 stayed within 23 cents of that low.
The shares closed at $16.02 on 13 August 2026, the reference point for the three-month decline. They are below the 50-day average of adjusted closes and below the 200-day average of $15.76 as of 11 November 2026. A close back above the 50-day average would be the first sign of leadership against the S&P 500.
The 52-week intraday high is $22.46 (17 June 2026). The company announced on its schedule release that third-quarter results come after the US close on 24 November 2026, with a conference call at 12:00 p.m. Buenos Aires time on 25 November 2026. No insider transactions are listed in recent SEC filings; the latest filing is the annual report on Form 20-F of 9 April 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- 24 November 2026: Third-quarter results, after the US close, announced by the company. Shows whether the non-performing-loan ratio stayed above 6.09% and whether the 12.2% return on equity held.
- 25 November 2026: Third-quarter conference call at 12:00 p.m. Buenos Aires time. Management commentary on credit costs, loan growth and the sovereign-risk effect on funding.
Elapsed catalysts
- ~12 November 2026 (est.): INDEC October national consumer-price release. Shows whether September's 1.9% monthly inflation was a pause or the start of re-acceleration. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $12.99, the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter results with a non-performing-loan ratio below 6.09% and return on equity above 12.2% would also point to leadership.
What it trades with
BBAR moves with Argentine sovereign bonds and the country-risk reading more than with its own results. Galicia (GGAL) fell 4.79% on the same late-October risk spike, per Rankia. The ADS also trades with the dollar-peso exchange rate: the CCL (the dollar rate implied by local share-to-ADR trades) rose 1.20% to ARS 1,673.75 on 3 November 2026, per Rankia. US Treasury yields after the 3 November 2026 US midterm elections were cited as an outside driver of country risk.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Second-quarter inflation-adjusted net income was ARS 131.6 billion, up 44.6% quarter over quarter; real return on average equity was 12.2% versus 8.3% in the first quarter. Banco BBVA Argentina second-quarter 6-K · as of
- Second-quarter non-performing-loan ratio was 6.09% (5.60% prior quarter); coverage was 79.91% (88.41% prior quarter). Banco BBVA Argentina second-quarter 6-K · as of
- Argentine country risk rose 26 points to 831 basis points, the 2026 high; the year's low was 402 on 10 July 2026. Rava Bursátil, as reported by Rankia · as of
- September consumer prices rose 1.9% month over month and 33.4% year over year, versus 1.7% in August. INDEC consumer-price release, as reported by Argentine press · as of
- UBS kept a Neutral rating on Banco BBVA Argentina and cut its price target from $20 to $15. Benzinga analyst ratings listing · as of
- Third-quarter results are due after the US close on 24 November 2026, with a conference call on 25 November 2026 at 12:00 p.m. Buenos Aires time. BBVA Argentina third-quarter 2026 results schedule announcement, via Stock Titan · as of
- BBAR closed at $10.66 on 11 November 2026 versus a 52-week intraday high of $22.46 on 17 June 2026. Daily closes · as of
Sources
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