AYA · Aya Gold & Silver

The thesis

Aya Gold & Silver's third-quarter (Q3) operating cash flow of US$48 million matched the second quarter's US$48 million even though silver-equivalent output rose 21%, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it. Cash flow in the fourth quarter settles whether the added volume converts into cash.

Aya's Q3 results on 12 November 2026 show revenue of US$103 million, up 90% year over year, and net income of US$35 million, up 182%. The consolidated realized price fell to US$59.50 per silver-equivalent ounce from US$64.22 in Q2, and Aya said an inventory build held back operating cash flow. Cash cost fell to US$15.51 per ounce from US$16.82.

The adjusted close was $22.86 on 12 November 2026, the day of the results, against $25.37 on 6 November 2026. The market has marked the shares down on a quarter in which profit rose and cash flow did not.

Bullish and bearish views on Aya Gold & Silver Inc.

The bull case on Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA), in brief: costs are falling. The bear case: cash flow did not grow.

Bull case

• Costs are falling. Aya's 12 November 2026 results show a consolidated cash cost of US$15.51 per silver-equivalent ounce, down 25% year over year. Zgounder's cash cost was US$17.53 per silver ounce, down 16%.
• Zgounder guidance floor moved up. The 12 November 2026 release raises the low end of 2026 Zgounder silver production to 5.6 million ounces from 5.2 million, with the top still at 5.8 million. Consolidated 2026 guidance is 6.6 to 6.8 million silver-equivalent ounces.
• Output is still rising. Q3 production was 2,034,628 silver-equivalent ounces, up 51% year over year and 21% from Q2, according to Aya's 14 October 2026 release. Boumadine's pyrite reclaim produced 536,879 ounces, up 186% from Q2's 187,784.
• The balance sheet is large. Aya held US$184 million in cash and equivalents at the end of Q3, excluding US$16 million of restricted cash, per the 12 November 2026 results.
• Boumadine keeps growing on paper. The 2026 preliminary economic assessment shows an after-tax net present value of US$3.5 billion at a 5% discount rate, a 93% after-tax internal rate of return and a 14-year mine life. Drilling reached 181,685 metres by 31 October 2026, past the 180,000-metre target.

Bear case

• Cash flow did not grow. Q3 operating cash flow of US$48 million equals Q2's, per Aya's 13 August 2026 and 12 November 2026 results. Revenue rose to US$103 million from US$97 million.
• Realized price slipped. The consolidated realized price was US$59.50 per silver-equivalent ounce in Q3 against US$64.22 in Q2. The Boumadine reclaim realized only US$34.72 per ounce, which dilutes the blend.
• Zgounder growth has nearly stalled. Silver output rose 1% from Q2 to Q3, to 1,497,749 ounces. The faster consolidated growth comes mainly from Boumadine's reclaim, a time-limited operation.
• Earnings per share did not move. Q3 basic earnings per share were $0.23, the same figure Aya reported for Q2 on 13 August 2026.
• Azegour brings no cash yet. The 5 November 2026 term sheet pays Aya in Sama Resources shares equal to up to 19.11% of Sama after issuance, and a definitive agreement and regulatory approvals remain outstanding.
• Boumadine's capital bill is large. The 9 September 2026 preliminary economic assessment puts initial capital at US$463 million, assuming gold at US$3,500 and silver at US$50 per ounce.

Price setup

The adjusted close was $22.86 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day average of adjusted closes of $26.5 as of that date. The three-month change in adjusted closes is −11.8%.

The shares closed at $25.37 on 6 November 2026 and $24.55 on 5 November 2026. The 12 November 2026 close is lower than both, so the results session took the shares to a new low for the recent range.

The shares have fallen despite the Nasdaq listing on 4 May 2026 and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF addition on 16 June 2026, which added index and fund demand. No Form 4 insider transactions appear in the SEC filings list, which shows only the 12 November 2026 Form 6-K.

Catalysts ahead

• ~14 January 2027 (est.): Q4 2026 production release, estimated from the 14 October 2026 timing of the Q3 release. Shows whether Zgounder silver output grows past Q3's 1,497,749 ounces and where full-year output lands against the 6.6 to 6.8 million silver-equivalent ounce guidance.
• Early 2027 (est.): Completion of the Zgounder crusher expansion, which Aya said on 14 October 2026 it expects to finish in early 2027. Zgounder silver output rose only 1% from Q2 to Q3, so the expansion is the next test of whether growth at the core mine resumes.
• ~31 March 2027 (est.): Q4 and full-year 2026 financial results, estimated from Aya's 31 March 2026 release of the prior year's fourth-quarter results. Shows whether operating cash flow rises above Q3's US$48 million once the inventory build sells and the realized price is known.

What would change the view

A weekly close above $26.50, the level of the 50-day average of adjusted closes, which would show the shares leading again. Q4 2026 operating cash flow clearly above Q3's US$48 million would also show the shares leading.

What it trades with

The shares trade with silver and gold prices and with gold-miner ETF flows, since the stock joined the VanEck Gold Miners ETF on 16 June 2026. Aya's 2026 guidance assumes silver at US$50 per ounce and gold at US$4,000 per ounce, so a move in either metal changes how the cash-flow results read. All producing assets are in Morocco, so country-specific fiscal news moves the shares independently of the metals.