MAMA · Mama's Creations
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $15.39
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
15.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $15.39, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 24.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $15.39, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fiscal third-quarter gross margin above the 24.9% of a year earlier would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Staples
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 3 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 54.6
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +55.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 24.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 17.3
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 134
- Price to earnings (×)
- 82.9
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 2.3
All filed numbers
What Mama's Creations reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 54.6 | +55.0 | 24.0 | 5.5 |
| first filed | 52.8 | +49.7 | 23.6 | 5.0 |
| first filed | 54.0 | +60.7 | 25.8 | 5.6 |
| first filed | 47.3 | +50.0 | 23.6 | 1.7 |
| first filed | 35.2 | +24.0 | 24.9 | 4.8 |
| first filed | 35.3 | +18.2 | 26.1 | 4.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 7.4 | 2.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | +14.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 19.0 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 17.3 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 139 |
| Debt ($M) loans | 4.8 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 134 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 12.9 |
| Inventory ($M) | 10.7 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 167 |
| Market value ($M) | 613 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 479 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 2.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 50.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 82.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 2.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.5 days of average trading to cover, +3.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $927K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.2M |
The thesis
Mama's Creations is growing fast, but its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. They closed at $13.24 on 12 November 2026, down 23.2% in three months and below the $18.00 price of the June 2026 offering. Gross margin holding above the 24.0% of the July 2026 quarter, and a dated use for the offering cash, settle the call at the fiscal third-quarter report, estimated for about 8 December 2026.
The quarter ended 31 July 2026 beat on revenue and earnings. Revenue was $54.6 million, up 55% from a year earlier, against analyst expectations of $52.87 million (Investing.com, 4 September 2026). Earnings per share were $0.06 against $0.05 expected. The shares closed at $15.16 on 4 September 2026, the first session after that report, and have that level since.
The market has priced in slower growth and a stalled margin recovery: the shares sit below both the 50-day average of closes ($13.43) and the 200-day average of closes ($15.38) as of 12 November 2026, despite 55% growth in the last reported quarter.
Bullish and bearish views on Mama's Creations, Inc.
The bull case on Mama's Creations, Inc. (MAMA), in brief: results beat expectations. The bear case: the shares fell after good results.
Bull case
- Results beat expectations. Revenue of $54.6 million (up 55%) and earnings per share of $0.06 both topped analyst estimates for the quarter ended 31 July 2026, per the company's 3 September 2026 release.
- Gross margin is recovering from the prior quarter. The company reported 24.0% in the July 2026 quarter, up from 23.6% in the quarter before. Management's stated target is the mid-to-high 20s percent.
- Retail distribution is widening. The 3 September 2026 release scheduled a first Kroger launch for October 2026, with four items in more than 100 stores in the Louisville division. StoneX reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $25 price target on 4 September 2026, citing Kroger and the return to Costco stores.
- Two firms publish targets above the shares. Stephens & Co. initiated at Overweight with a $19 price target on 27 October 2026, and StoneX's target is $25. Both sit above the $13.24 close of 12 November 2026.
- Cash is large against the company's size. StoneX cited a net cash position of $134 million on 4 September 2026, after the sale of 5,555,556 shares at $18.00 (Benzinga, 30 June 2026).
Bear case
- The shares fell after good results. The close was $13.24 on 12 November 2026, against $15.16 on 4 September 2026. The 3-month reference close of $17.25 on 14 August 2026 was also below the $18.00 offering price.
- Gross margin is still below last year. The 24.0% reading compares with 24.9% in the year-earlier quarter, so the sequential recovery has not restored the prior level.
- Growth faces a harder comparison. Crown, bought from Sysco on 2 September 2025, was already contributing in the year-earlier fiscal third quarter, when revenue was $47.3 million, up 50% (Zacks, December 2025). Management has guided to forward double-digit growth, against the 55% just reported.
- Cash has no dated use yet. Shares outstanding rose to 47.1 million after the June 2026 offering. The 3 September 2026 results announced no acquisition, and the next company report is the next document that can show one.
- The CEO sold shares after the report. Adam Laurance Michaels, chief executive officer and director, sold 69,683 shares at $13.31 on 23 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, a pre-arranged selling schedule, after a grant of 14,814 shares on 22 September 2026 (SEC Form 4, filed 24 September 2026).
- The Kroger launch is unconfirmed. October 2026 was the stated month for first deliveries, and that month has ended. The fiscal third-quarter report is the next company document that can confirm it.
Price setup
The shares closed at $13.24 on 12 November 2026, down from $13.72 on 11 November 2026. The closes in the preceding week were $12.99 on 5 November 2026, $13.40 on 6 November 2026, $13.80 on 9 November 2026 and $13.63 on 10 November 2026. The last close sits just under the 50-day average of closes at $13.43.
The 200-day average of closes is $15.38 as of 12 November 2026. The 52-week high is $21.00 (intraday, 29 June 2026), and the last close is 37.0% below it. The 52-week closing low is $10.03 on 17 November 2025.
The shares closed at $12.81 on 1 October 2026 and $12.97 on 27 October 2026, so the $12.81 to $13.80 range has held since the start of October. A move back to $15.16, the 4 September 2026 close, would mark the full retrace of the post-report drop. Average daily volume was near 1.7 million shares as of 21 August 2026, and the stock has moved sharply around scheduled releases.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): Company announcement of the fiscal third-quarter 2027 call date, dated from the 24 November 2025 announcement a year earlier. Fixes the date of the report that tests gross margin and the use of the offering cash.
- ~8 December 2026 (est.): Results for the fiscal third quarter of 2027, ended 31 October 2026, dated from the 8 December 2025 call a year earlier. Shows whether gross margin holds above 24.0%, whether the Kroger launch happened and whether the cash has been committed to an acquisition.
What would change the view
A daily close above $15.39, just over the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fiscal third-quarter gross margin above the 24.9% of a year earlier would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Mama's Creations is a small-cap refrigerated prepared-foods maker selling to grocery, club and mass retailers, so its shares track small-cap consumer-staples sentiment more than any technology theme. Customer concentration in a few retailers (Costco and Kroger are named in company and analyst commentary) ties results to those chains' shelf decisions. Analyst coverage is small, so one rating or target change moves the aggregate view.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue was $54.6 million, up 55% from a year earlier, against analyst expectations of $52.87 million; earnings per share were $0.06 against $0.05 expected. Investing.com coverage of the 3 September 2026 results · as of
- Gross margin was 24.0% in the quarter ended 31 July 2026, versus 23.6% in the prior quarter and 24.9% a year earlier. Company results release, 3 September 2026 · as of
- Public offering of 5,555,556 common shares priced at $18.00 per share, about $100 million before the underwriters' option. Benzinga, 30 June 2026 · as of
- StoneX reaffirmed a Buy rating and $25 price target, citing the Kroger launch and the Costco return to stores. Investing.com, 4 September 2026 · as of
- Stephens & Co. initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $19 price target. Stephens & Co. initiation reported 27 October 2026 · as of
- Chief executive Adam Laurance Michaels sold 69,683 shares at $13.31 on 23 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, after a grant of 14,814 shares on 22 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 24 September 2026 · as of
- Fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue (the year-earlier comparison) was $47.3 million, up 50% from a year before. Zacks, December 2025 · as of
Sources