M · Macy's
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $27.58
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $27.58, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 7.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $27.58, over the 52-week high of $26.59 set on 4 August 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter adjusted result better than the guided loss of 19 to 23 cents per share would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 1 August 2026, filed 10 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 5,059
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +1.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 43.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 4.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 1,414
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,139
- Price to earnings (×)
- 8.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.3
All filed numbers
What Macy's reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 5,059 | +1.2 | 43.7 | 4.8 |
| first filed | 4,892 | +2.1 | 41.5 | 2.3 |
| first filed | 7,916 | −1.1 | 37.5 | 9.4 |
| first filed | 4,913 | +0.2 | 41.9 | 0.9 |
| first filed | 4,999 | −1.9 | 42.0 | 3.0 |
| first filed | 4,793 | −4.1 | 41.7 | 2.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 227 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 750 | 169 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 2 August 2025 | −1.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,761 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 347 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,414 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,294 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current debt | 2,433 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,139 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −1.0% on a year | 298 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 236 |
| Inventory ($M) | 4,449 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 4,928 |
| Market value ($M) | 6,451 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 7,590 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 6.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 8.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 21.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 13.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.0 days of average trading to cover, +4.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $6.7M |
The thesis
Macy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The turnaround is working on sales, but the company guided a third-quarter loss and the shares trade above analyst consensus targets. The fiscal third-quarter report, expected around 2 December 2026 (an EarningsWhispers estimate; the company has not confirmed the date), settles whether earnings hold once the one-time tariff refund drops out.
The shares closed at $24.33 on 12 November 2026. That is 8.5% below the 52-week high of $26.59 (intraday, 4 August 2026) and below the $25.08 close of 10 November 2026. The three-month price change is 4.8% (adjusted daily closes).
Second-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $0.63 against $0.35 a year earlier. Of that, $0.23 came from net tariff refunds that the company does not expect to repeat (company release, 10 September 2026). Third-quarter guidance is an adjusted loss of 19 to 23 cents per share on net sales of $4.65–$4.70 billion (company guidance, 10 September 2026).
The market already prices in the guidance raise: the consensus targets of $22.54 (Benzinga, 6 November 2026) and $22.78 (MarketBeat, 31 October 2026) sit below the $24.33 close.
Bullish and bearish views on Macy's Inc.
The bull case on Macy's Inc. (M), in brief: sales beat the company's own guide. The bear case: refunds flatter the quarter.
Bull case
- Sales beat the company's own guide. Second-quarter comparable sales rose 2.7% against guidance of flat to up 1%, and net sales rose 1.1% to $4.9 billion (company release, 10 September 2026).
- Full-year range moved up. Adjusted earnings per share guidance became $2.15–$2.35 from $2.00–$2.20, with comparable sales guided up 1.0% to 1.5% (company 8-K, 10 September 2026).
- The shares sit above both long averages. The 12 November 2026 close of $24.33 compares with a 50-day average of $23.13 and a 200-day average of $21.58 (adjusted daily closes).
- Large holder disclosed a bigger stake. Berkshire Hathaway's Form 13F-HR filed 14 August 2026 showed 7.37 million shares at 30 June 2026, up from 3.04 million a quarter earlier.
- Ratings improved at one provider. MarketBeat reported on 7 November 2026 that Wall Street Zen upgraded Macy's to Buy, after the same provider cut it to Hold on 17 October 2026.
- The dividend continues. Macy's announced on 23 October 2026 that it maintained its quarterly dividend. The last payment was 19.15 cents per share, paid 1 October 2026 (company release, 28 August 2026).
Bear case
- Refunds flatter the quarter. The $0.23 net tariff-refund benefit sits inside the $0.63 adjusted earnings per share. About $20 million of $116 million in refunds reaches full-year earnings and the rest is reinvested (company 8-K, 10 September 2026).
- Third-quarter guide is a loss. The company guided an adjusted loss of 19 to 23 cents per share, with comparable sales between down 0.5% and up 0.5% (company guidance reported by MarketBeat, 10 September 2026).
- The price sits above the consensus target. Benzinga's average target was $22.54 as of 6 November 2026 and MarketBeat's was $22.78 as of 31 October 2026, both under the $24.33 close. MarketBeat counts three Buy, eight Hold and two Sell ratings.
- New coverage opened at Hold. MarketBeat reported that TD Cowen initiated coverage with a Hold rating in the week of 31 October 2026.
- The sharpest sceptic held firm. Investing.com reported on 17 September 2026 that UBS kept its $10 target, citing market-share concerns.
- Insider activity is routine. Bloomingdale's CEO Olivier Bron exercised options on 21,766 shares on 1 November 2026, and 12,038 shares were withheld for tax at $24.11 on 2 November 2026 (SEC Form 4). The filing shows no open-market sale.
Price setup
The last close was $24.33 on 12 November 2026, down from $24.85 on 11 November 2026 and $25.08 on 10 November 2026. The shares closed at $23.08 on 6 November 2026 and at $24.95 on 9 November 2026, a jump on the first session of that week with no company report behind it.
The 52-week high is $26.59 (intraday, 4 August 2026). The 52-week closing low is $16.92 (17 March 2026). The 50-day average is $23.13 and the 200-day average is $21.58, both as of 12 November 2026 on adjusted closes.
A close above $26.59 would set a new 52-week high. A close under the 50-day average would put the shares back inside the range they held before the 9 November 2026 jump.
Catalysts ahead
- 16 November 2026: Berkshire Hathaway third-quarter 2026 Form 13F filing deadline (the 45th day falls on Saturday 14 November 2026). Shows whether Berkshire's 7.37 million-share Macy's position at 30 June 2026 was added to, held or reduced in the third quarter.
- 26 November 2026: Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, which opens the holiday season. A brand event that opens the holiday season; it does not settle the earnings case.
- ~2 December 2026 (est.): Macy's fiscal third-quarter 2026 results; the date is an EarningsWhispers estimate and is not confirmed by the company. Tests the guided adjusted loss of 19 to 23 cents per share and the $2.15–$2.35 full-year range once the one-time tariff refund fades.
What would change the view
A daily close above $27.58, over the 52-week high of $26.59 set on 4 August 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A third-quarter adjusted result better than the guided loss of 19 to 23 cents per share would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Macy's trades with US department-store and consumer-discretionary peers, so peer reports in mid-November can move the shares without any company news. Holiday spending data and tariff policy affect it more than the broad index. The Berkshire Hathaway Form 13F is a single-holder disclosure, and its trend matters only if the third-quarter share count differs from 7.37 million.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Second-quarter comparable sales rose 2.7% against guidance of flat to up 1%; net sales rose 1.1% to $4.9 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.63 against $0.35 a year earlier, including a $0.23 net tariff-refund benefit. Macy's, Inc. second-quarter fiscal 2026 results release and 8-K · as of
- Full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance raised to $2.15–$2.35 from $2.00–$2.20; full-year comparable sales guided up 1.0% to 1.5%. Macy's, Inc. 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Third-quarter guidance is an adjusted loss of 19 to 23 cents per share on net sales of $4.65–$4.70 billion; comparable sales guided between down 0.5% and up 0.5%. Macy's, Inc. guidance as reported by MarketBeat · as of
- Consensus rating: three Buy, eight Hold, two Sell; average target $22.78. TD Cowen initiated coverage with a Hold rating. MarketBeat · as of
- Average analyst target $22.54, range $10 to $30. Benzinga price targets page · as of
- Bloomingdale's CEO Olivier Bron exercised options on 21,766 shares on 1 November 2026; 12,038 shares were withheld for tax at $24.11 on 2 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 2 November 2026 · as of
- Berkshire Hathaway reported 7.37 million Macy's shares at 30 June 2026, up from 3.04 million a quarter earlier. Berkshire Hathaway Form 13F-HR filed 14 August 2026 · as of
- Macy's closed at $24.33 on 12 November 2026, with a 50-day average of $23.13 and a 200-day average of $21.58 (adjusted closes). Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- RTTNews
- MarketBeat ·
- MarketBeat ·
- Macy's Inc · benzinga.com
- Earnings Whispers
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