ASO · Academy Sports and Outdoors
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $76.25
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
11.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $76.25, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 47.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $76.25, which would put the shares well over the 52-week high of $71.29 and show them leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter comparable sales above the 2.0% top of full-year guidance would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 1 August 2026, filed 9 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,647
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +3.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 40.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 15.0
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 331
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −196
- Price to earnings (×)
- 10.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.7
All filed numbers
What Academy Sports and Outdoors reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,647 | +3.0 | 40.4 | 15.0 |
| first filed | 1,442 | +6.7 | 33.2 | 5.2 |
| first filed | 1,719 | +2.5 | 33.6 | 9.9 |
| first filed | 1,384 | +3.0 | 35.7 | 7.3 |
| first filed | 1,600 | +3.3 | 36.0 | 10.8 |
| first filed | 1,351 | −0.9 | 34.0 | 5.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 178 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 396 | 138 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 2 August 2025 | −6.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 548 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 216 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 331 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 298 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 494 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −196 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +4.4% on a year | 85.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 23.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,657 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,178 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,162 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,358 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 7.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 10.5 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 8.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.9 days of average trading to cover, +7.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $5.6M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $7.0M |
The thesis
Academy Sports and Outdoors shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: they closed at $69.32 on 11 November 2026, up 42.1% in three months, while the last reported quarter showed comparable sales down 0.4% and an earnings guidance raise that leans on one-time tariff refunds and buybacks. The third-quarter report, expected around 8 December 2026, settles whether core demand supports the price.
The advance came with no new quarterly results. The last report is the 9 September 2026 release for the quarter ended 1 August 2026, and company news since then is limited to a HYROX North America partnership (21 October 2026) and holiday shopping initiatives (9 November 2026).
What changed is the analyst side. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and an $89 price target on 10 November 2026, per Investing.com and Daily Political. Company news the same day shows Loop Capital downgraded the shares to Hold. MarketBeat's consensus target was $60.71 on 10 November 2026, below the last close.
Second-quarter business numbers: comparable sales fell 0.4%, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 19.1% to $2.31, and the gross margin rate rose to 40.4% from 36.0%. The company's 10-Q attributes 510 basis points of that rate to a one-time refund of tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Bullish and bearish views on Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
The bull case on Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO), in brief: Cantor sees much higher value. The bear case: comparable sales are negative.
Bull case
- Cantor sees much higher value. Cantor Fitzgerald's $89 target (10 November 2026) rests on the pace of new store openings and value-focused positioning into the 2026 and 2027 holiday seasons, per Investing.com. Cantor models adjusted EPS of $8.29 for fiscal 2028.
- Guidance was raised on earnings. On 9 September 2026 the company raised fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to $6.05–$6.45 and adjusted EPS guidance to $6.50–$6.90.
- Buybacks shrink the share count. Shares outstanding fell to 62.0 million from 66.6 million a year earlier. Year-to-date repurchases reached $182.1 million, per the 9 September 2026 release.
- eCommerce and new stores are growing. eCommerce sales rose 12.8% in the second quarter, and new stores posted mid-single-digit comparable sales. The company planned 11 openings in the third quarter.
- Lean inventory heading into the holidays. Inventory was $1,657.4 million at 1 August 2026, up 4.4% in dollars but down 5.6% in units per store, which lowers the risk of holiday markdowns.
Bear case
- Comparable sales are negative. Same-store sales fell 0.4% in the second quarter. Full-year comparable-sales guidance of flat to up 2.0% was affirmed on 9 September 2026, not raised.
- The margin jump does not repeat. The 10-Q describes the 510-basis-point tariff refund as one-time. Merchandise margin fell 90 basis points in the quarter.
- The price is above nearly every target. StockAnalysis lists Jefferies at $67 (29 September 2026), Goldman Sachs at $63 (16 September 2026), Telsey Advisory at $63 (10 September 2026) and Evercore ISI at $60 (20 October 2026). Cantor's $89 is the exception, and MarketBeat's consensus target is $60.71 (10 November 2026).
- Loop Capital downgraded. Company news on 10 November 2026 shows Loop Capital moved to Hold the same day Cantor initiated at Overweight, so the broker community is split near the highs.
- Insiders sold after the report. SEC Form 4 filings show president Samuel Johnson exercised 25,580 options at $26.99 and sold 95,883 shares at an average $52.37 on 14 September to 15 September 2026. Director Brian Marley sold 10,432 shares at an average $53.25 on 15 September 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $67.27 on 6 November 2026, then jumped to $71.18 on 9 November 2026, the session of the 52-week intraday high of $71.29. They closed at $70.39 on 10 November 2026 and $69.32 on 11 November 2026, 2.8% below that high.
The 50-day average is $55.04 and the 200-day average is $52.95, both as of the 11 November 2026 close. The shares sit about 26% above the first and 31% above the second, so the move has outrun the trend measures. The 3-month reference close was $48.93 on 13 August 2026, and the 52-week closing low was $41.73 on 20 November 2025.
The market has priced in the 9 September 2026 guidance raise and a bullish initiation, and the price sits above the consensus target of $60.71.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): Announcement of the third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call date. It fixes the report date. Last year the company announced the date on 25 November 2025, about two weeks before reporting on 9 December 2025.
- 27 November 2026: Black Friday opens the holiday shopping period in the fiscal fourth quarter. Holiday demand among lower-income shoppers feeds the guidance management gives with the December report.
- ~8 December 2026 (est.): Third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report. It is the first report since the one-time tariff refund. It shows whether comparable sales turn positive and whether the raised EPS guidance holds with the shares above most broker targets.
What would change the view
A daily close above $76.25, which would put the shares well over the 52-week high of $71.29 and show them leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter comparable sales above the 2.0% top of full-year guidance would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Academy's shares respond to US discretionary spending, particularly among lower-income shoppers, as chief executive Steve Lawrence discussed on 9 September 2026. They also respond to tariff policy, since IEEPA refunds accounted for 510 basis points of second-quarter gross margin rate. The move from $48.93 on 13 August 2026 to $69.32 on 11 November 2026 came with no new quarterly results, so the December report is the next test that belongs to Academy alone.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q2 FY2026 net sales $1,647.3M, up 3.0%; comparable sales down 0.4%; eCommerce sales up 12.8%; adjusted EPS $2.31, up 19.1%. Academy Q2 FY2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Gross margin rate 40.4% vs 36.0% a year earlier; 510 bp came from one-time IEEPA tariff refunds, and merchandise margin fell 90 bp. Academy Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance raised to $6.05–$6.45 and adjusted EPS to $6.50–$6.90; comparable-sales guidance of flat to up 2.0% affirmed. Academy Q2 FY2026 earnings release · as of
- Shares outstanding 62.0M vs 66.6M a year earlier; year-to-date buybacks of $182.1M. Academy Q2 FY2026 earnings release · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and an $89 price target; it models adjusted EPS of $8.29 for fiscal 2028. Investing.com; Daily Political (10 November 2026) · as of
- MarketBeat consensus 'Moderate Buy' with an average price target of $60.71 (1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 9 Hold). MarketBeat via Daily Political · as of
- President Samuel Johnson sold 95,883 shares at an average $52.37 on 14 September to 15 September 2026 after exercising 25,580 options at $26.99; director Brian Marley sold 10,432 shares at an average $53.25 on 15 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filings filed 16 September 2026 · as of
- Evercore ISI kept an In-Line rating and raised its price target to $60 from $55. Benzinga analyst-rating report · as of
Sources
- Academy Sports and Outdoors (NASDAQ:ASO) Coverage Initiated by Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald · dailypolitical.com ·
- Cantor Fitzgerald initiates Academy Sports stock with overweight rating · ng.investing.com
- Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) · stockanalysis.com
- ASO Maintained by Evercore ISI Group -- Price Target Raised to $60 · gurufocus.com
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